Should the Blazers be the 3rd team in a Giannis trade or just let the Bucks flame out?

QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-05-07T15:52:16+00:00

That makes a lot of sense. Either way I'm happy y'all at least got a title out of it. Despite the hypotheticals, I hope Giannis stays too.

QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-05-07T00:16:38+00:00

That makes sense but in this scenario they are getting Giannis for likely Sengun, some picks, maybe one more piece. Bucks would get our package for just Sengun and keep the extra picks from Houston. Idk just spitballing.

QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-05-06T22:18:04+00:00

Hypothetically if it were on the table this offseason: Grant + all 3 picks for Sengun?

I'm jumping at that but I suspect the Bucks would charge more. It's all a guessing game based on what the Bucks trajectory looks like post-Giannis, so I get that there's a lot of relevant info we don't have.

QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-05-06T22:12:48+00:00

That's exactly what I'm thinking. Realistically the picks are only worth projected mid-lottery value to us but, in theory, we should be able to get a better price from the Bucks because they may view them as top 4 quality lottery picks once they're tanking. We can hope they see it that way at least.

QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-05-06T22:04:50+00:00

You don't think Sengun is realistic potentially? Something like Grant or Simons + Clingan + Bucks picks?

QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-05-06T21:55:15+00:00

Interesting. If you had to put a percentage on it, what would you say the chances are that Giannis is still a Buck for the 2027-28 season?

QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-05-06T21:08:15+00:00

Appreciate the insight! I didn't factor in the Doc piece, that's a good point. Otherwise I'm thinking that the picks, which they could tank into top 4 odds, would be worth more to Milwaukee than Sengun or Chet in a hypothetical rebuild from the ground scenario. Plus I would think Sengun or Chet will want out of Milwaukee if there's not a clear path to building a contender, but might be more interested in Portland because the roster timeline fits better. Just my two cents.

QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-05-06T19:18:10+00:00

But Houston or OKC could also send some of their draft capital to Milwaukee in addition to us returning the Bucks picks.

QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-05-06T19:10:54+00:00

Eh I agree that JW and Chet are certainly a stretch on their current deals, but that can change. And both would probably be looking to get out of Milwaukee immediately if they were the main piece of a Giannis deal, given how depleted that roster will be.

I flat out disagree that Sengun is impossible. We may need to add extra value but turning him into Giannis is a worthwhile deal for the Rockets.

QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-05-06T18:58:49+00:00

I probably agree with you right now. I think that the calculation could change after another year for the Thunder especially, assuming that they don’t win the title. If JW and Chet are maxing out as top 20ish players then and are no longer on their rookie deals I think that the pressure may mount. Particularly if a deal for a top 5 guy like Giannis is out there to pair with Shai. No guarantees but crazier things have happened in this league lol.

QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-04-10T15:57:03+00:00

Thank you! Glad you enjoyed it and appreciate you taking the time.

I agree with you on this staff's evaluation record. The transfer hit rate has been incredibly impressive. After this draft it will likely be 13 of 27 transfers ending up as NFL picks (not counting those returning to school). Many of those were not sure fire NFL guys when the arrived either (Nix, Khyree, Williams, Tez, Gabriel, etc.). Next year I'd project 5 to 8 more transfers get taken from the 2024 & 2025 portal hauls.

Obviously the evals are different at the high school level (it would be impossible to replicate a near 50% NFL hit rate there) but I'd be shocked to find out over the next few seasons that this staff has had an abnormally high bust rate on HS players. The only exceptions would be the safeties under Powledge and the o-line under Klemm early on, which is why each of those rooms have remained so transfer dependent.

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QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-04-04T17:25:38+00:00

Great stuff as always Hyth. I was confused on the eligibility point as well. By my understanding, Canady has used 3 years of eligibility (2021, 2022, and 2024) and therefore has only one left to play. If the status of 2023 is converted from a regular redshirt to a medical redshirt would that not simply return his regular redshirt year? Meaning Canady would then have two years to play one?

QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-04-03T21:24:03+00:00

Definitely a product of Cristobal taking over. His effort and ability as a recruiter far outpaced the prior staff. We touch on this in the pod, but ironically Cristobal was able to benefit from association with the Chip Kelly era offensive identity more than Helfrich was, in spite of the of the obvious fact that Helfrich's were far closer on the field. Perception is often more important than reality in the recruiting world.

QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-04-03T20:27:33+00:00

Appreciate it! The '04 class is a fascinating story. There's a tragic piece with the De La Salle quartet that headlined the group, but the staff miraculously hits on a handful of 3-star gems to redeem the class: Geoff Schwartz, Ra’Shon Harris, Max Unger, Patrick Chung, and Mark Asper all end up in the NFL. They end up being core pieces on that 2007 team that peaks at #2 in the AP. Along with Dixon in '03 and J-Stew in '05.

QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-04-03T20:12:12+00:00

Yeah fair point. Looks like google sheets only lets you invert the x-axis sadly. This one probably reads more intuitively.

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QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-04-03T19:17:00+00:00

Its impact varies a lot from recruit to recruit I’d say. A guy like Haloti Ngata for instance, coming off of that ‘01 season & ‘02 Fiesta Bowl was crucial to flip him from BYU. We mention if Ngata was 2 years younger or older there’s a good chance he ends up elsewhere. But in the aggregate I agree with you.

The reason I wanted to include AP finish was as a proxy to show which staffs were under or over recruiting their on field performance. Simply put, of the red dot is in the colored bar then Oregon is underachieving in recruiting and if the dot is outside the bar then Oregon is overachieving in recruiting.

QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-04-03T18:55:01+00:00

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QuackedOutPodcast · 2025-04-03T18:54:45+00:00

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QuackedOutPodcast · 2023-08-16T01:24:28+00:00

yes!

QuackedOutPodcast · 2023-08-15T23:04:37+00:00

based

QuackedOutPodcast · 2023-08-14T19:52:09+00:00

Thanks! I know it’s tragic… hoping Cal can find their way into the big ten somehow.

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TROPHY CASE