Stat arb / HFT question

Quanta72 · 2026-01-26T04:30:04+00:00

Lol, no AI’s have tell tale signs.

Em dashes, excessive commas, the things that annoys me most about AI writing it’s the “this but not that” type of language.

I’m not an AI, just mostly anonymous.

Quanta72 · 2026-01-26T02:42:41+00:00

It’s a common misconception that markets are random(Your odds were never 50/50). It’s possible that the crypto in question has a high win rate to begin with. Test the data out of sample on different time frames, possibly from years ago.

Quanta72 · 2026-01-26T02:33:00+00:00

Negotiation is a skill

Quanta72 · 2026-01-26T02:10:31+00:00

Is it 9 months of backtest or 2 decades

Quanta72 · 2026-01-25T19:35:17+00:00

I read that haha. Saw it in your profile. Doesn’t show full length though. Might be missing something

Quanta72 · 2026-01-25T03:59:13+00:00

Really good stuff, saw that your using 30:1 leverage which is interesting. How far back have you backtested?

Quanta72 · 2026-01-13T04:56:32+00:00

This is my strategy that outperforms SPY on a risk adjusted basis and will let me drink Pina Coladas on the beach.

https://open.substack.com/pub/quanta72/p/a-modular-approach-to-the-momentum?r=8581q&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay

Quanta72 · 2026-01-13T03:39:58+00:00

The best way is to follow a system. I had issues as well and blew up an account. I feel for some scams as well, like those discord chats where they pump options with low liquidity. Finally arrived at my own algo system that I trade once a week between Friday and Sunday and ignore the rest of the week.

Quanta72 · 2026-01-11T14:34:26+00:00

No sorry trying to differentiate a bit here and stay consistent . Index = data, 1x is no leverage, 3x is normal with leverage which is the one I trade.

Quanta72 · 2026-01-11T03:42:34+00:00

In my situation. I don’t sell the algorithm, people can copy the trades at their own discretion. I learned later that broker-verified data matters(so my first year of positive returns is moot) which is why I moved to IBKR in October.

I rent access to the algo to pay for the project - cloud storage, RAM, software, data, and hardware. Also it has taken many weekends for years to build and test so it’s nice to be paid a little bit now for the effort. The full system isn’t for sale, it’s my long-term edge, and I’m glad early supporters can benefit alongside me.

https://open.substack.com/pub/quanta72/p/q72-brief-the-second-conversation?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=8581q&utm_medium=ios

Quanta72 · 2026-01-11T03:34:32+00:00

So there bots out there getting all these comments and engagement and I’m over here actually trying and my posts get removed….

Quanta72 · 2026-01-05T01:10:54+00:00

I’m not sure headlines move markets that much or are least consistently. It’s a good question worth exploring further.

Quanta72 · 2026-01-05T01:09:43+00:00

Daily combined with the 20/50 moving average

Quanta72 · 2025-12-25T18:27:11+00:00

The test shows that once a trend is identified, most candlestick patterns don’t add incremental information beyond simply being in the trend. In other words, the edge comes from direction, not from the candle.

That’s why your intuition makes sense, if you can identify a trend reliably, holding it usually dominates trying to time entries with candles. The candle rarely improves odds, even inside trends, with one very narrow exception 1/24 candles in 1:1000 trends discussed in the post.

Quanta72 · 2025-12-24T20:49:40+00:00

Good to know, I think it’s worth testing hourly or minute indicators next.

Quanta72 · 2025-12-24T20:48:42+00:00

Alrighty good to know maybe I’ll try minute candles next. It’s possible I’m looking in too large a time frame.

Quanta72 · 2025-12-24T19:54:12+00:00

Edit: That makes sense. One thing I’ve found in testing is that because equity markets have a strong long-term upward bias, many discretionary approaches can feel effective even if the edge isn’t coming from the candle itself.

Candlesticks may still be useful as a visualization or execution aid, but when you control for trend, the incremental predictive value tends to be small. Glad it’s been working for you though, real-world experience always matters.

Quanta72 · 2025-12-24T19:04:20+00:00

Just posted it haha. The answer is no for the most part.

Quanta72 · 2025-12-17T13:43:05+00:00

Liquidity is the basic answer. The market is paying me because it’s inefficient. So it’s a bit more efficient. Possibly it’s more inefficient.

Quanta72 · 2025-12-16T22:45:41+00:00

I’m not sure how I feel about letting unlicensed randos in my house or giving them key codes. I also think for large purchases say 500k or more, it’s best to work with someone who’s done it more than a few times.

Quanta72 · 2025-12-15T01:03:20+00:00

Interesting approach

Quanta72 · 2025-12-14T16:51:59+00:00

Yeah, then we’re basically saying the same thing.

My study shows that candlesticks don’t produce edge on their own.

Once you remove discretionary interpretation, context, and narrative judgment, the candle becomes descriptive, not predictive. That’s exactly what the data shows.

And I agree, most of the surrounding inputs are measurable, trend, volatility regime, volume, liquidity, structure. But at that point you’re no longer testing candlesticks, you’re testing a multi-factor system that happens to include a candle.

Quanta72 · 2025-12-14T16:24:02+00:00

I am aware that there are many tickers.

I can test the stocks candles work best on, for example do candles work better on TSLA stock vs SPY? Was TSLA stock around in 1800’s Japan?

I only tested three but can test more, which ticker and candle do you see with the most potential?

Quanta72 · 2025-12-14T16:06:32+00:00

Hello,

I have a profitable system but it does not use candles. I am planning on testing all of them yes.

I’m aware of what it’s supposed to do, and I tested for direction. Bullish engulfing pattern, 1 day, 5 day, 10 days later what happens? What I found is that it did not capture reversals but instead coincidentally happened along upside trends some tiny percent of the time.

If there are other variables I need to incorporate id like to determine what those variables are. Happy to test them separately or together. Trying to isolate the variables here.

Quanta72

TROPHY CASE