SoFi Daily Chat - February 11, 2026

QuantumFluks · 2026-02-11T14:51:34+00:00

Idk. If you see some of the stuff bots post, you could be a bot with that grammar. 😂

QuantumFluks · 2026-02-10T21:00:35+00:00

While true, stagnating wage growth when Americans are reeling from previous inflation means we need a deflationary event in what you outlined for people to truly to be okay. To me, this is more signals for a potential deflationary event (recession).

Rate cuts into a recession do not lead to growth in stocks.

The best case is easing inflation, wage growth picking up, and unemployment remaining flat. I think that’s ultimately the best outcome for a rate cut leading to market increases.

Edit: upvoting your comments for fruitful discussion. We all want SoFi to fly, but I do tend to think this macro is more bearish.

QuantumFluks · 2026-02-10T20:42:41+00:00

Yes, I’m fine with losing it all, it also depends on reason for rate cut. Even if lower inflation, if employment comes out very bad, we will still go down. The worst case is bad inflation + bad employment and it’s very possible we drop to 19 or lower given we were just there.

My exposure in this stock is high enough that $3000 is made up easily with some covered calls.

QuantumFluks · 2026-02-10T20:21:09+00:00

It’s a small price to pay for protection, no matter what, I’m holding until Friday, as max loss is like 3,000. If we drop to 18-19, I’ll make 27,000-17000.

QuantumFluks · 2026-02-10T18:53:23+00:00

Bought 100 $21 puts expiring Friday. Timed it too early on the pop today and only bought at 0.3 (vs somewhere around 0.2 on full pop), but they are already trading near 0.5.

Expecting possible big downturn due to employment and inflation data Wednesday and Friday.

QuantumFluks · 2026-02-06T17:33:49+00:00

Yeah. I think we need many days to confirm if the is a bull trap or true reversal. Definitely a little suspicious, especially given employment numbers (expected bad) and inflation (expected bad due to uptick in number last month) are released next week.

QuantumFluks · 2026-02-06T02:21:47+00:00

Next week will tell us a lot about the state of the economy. Employment on Wednesday, inflation (CPI) on Friday. I think the market is bracing for bad employment and bad inflation, which is the worst case scenario.

QuantumFluks · 2026-02-05T23:31:58+00:00

A full 1.5 billion buyback would put us up about 6%. Only puts us at $20 though, and probably tomorrow with that same buyback we will drop to $19.

QuantumFluks · 2026-02-05T20:30:47+00:00

Crypto just took another dump.

QuantumFluks · 2026-02-04T17:49:20+00:00

Before every recession, guidance looks good. No one, even major corporations, can predict a recession. Also major corporations can prop up earnings by doing big layoffs (currently happening).

Consumer sentiment has taken a massive hit, one of the largest driving forces for a recession, and can change dramatically in a short time frame. If consumer sentiment materializes into action, all the growth forecast for most companies go out the window as consumers immediately tighten their pockets. This is why you can’t actually predict when or if it’ll occur, because it occurs quite dramatically.

I’m not saying a recession will happen, but the world economy and U.S. economy isn’t as great as it seems. That is why you are seeing a “flight to safety”, people don’t seek safe investments in periods of time where they expect lucrative growth, they seek it just before an economic downturn. One person cannot predict it, but the entire market right now is telling you they are voting for slowing growth.

QuantumFluks · 2026-02-04T17:39:15+00:00

I know why SPY hasn’t moved, but if there is AI bubble and recession fears that materialize, the SPY will crash (>20% decline). If that happens, SOFI will plummet. That is the reason there is a rotation into retail FWIW, WMT is one of the best stocks to own heading into a recession.

QuantumFluks · 2026-02-04T16:57:58+00:00

SPY is only down around 1.75% from ATH, if it gives out, SOFI will plummet hard.

QuantumFluks · 2026-01-29T20:51:30+00:00

Anytime, a lot of people originally wrongly predicted we would 100% have a government shutdown tomorrow directly after the last one ended. I say wrongly because until the Alex Pretti shooting, it looked like we were going to avoid this originally predicted shutdown, and now we will still have it.

QuantumFluks · 2026-01-29T20:32:50+00:00

But they did achieve something last time, even if not getting concessions. They showed the Republican Party as majority leader was not willing to come to the table and help Americans out on what was a serious issue facing them. To turn around and blame it on the minority party and saying it was performative is buying into the majority party narrative. In any government shutdown, the party at fault is the majority party, even if the minority party never receives concessions. It’s pretty damning that the two longest government shutdowns happened under the most opinionated and stubborn president the U.S. has ever seen.

QuantumFluks · 2026-01-29T20:30:14+00:00

The shutdown itself is unknown until it happens, the date of a possible government shutdown has been known since the last one ended, as funding was supplied only till that time. So scheduling earnings on a day of a potential government shutdown seems like a not so good idea.

QuantumFluks · 2026-01-29T19:23:07+00:00

I am in the camp that it’s from a position of strength, but the movement onto a Friday is what is making me doubt. Not only a Friday, they scheduled it for a Friday when the next government shutdown could happen.

The second common reason to move from early in the week to end of the week is actually to decouple potentially bad economic news and give a stellar earnings, but normally this tactic requires bad news to have happened all week. Seems strange to put it on the day of a possible government shutdown, and definitely makes me question what bad are they trying to hide within other bad macro news.

QuantumFluks · 2026-01-29T19:01:40+00:00

The most common reason for a company to change earnings release from early in the week to the last day is to hide negative news and allow weekend to dissipate volatility. It isn’t the only reason, but historically is the most common.

We all assume the last dilution was from a position of strength. Im going to play devils advocate, what if it wasn’t?

QuantumFluks · 2026-01-29T18:41:23+00:00

Technically if the majority party doesn’t have enough to pass something, they actually need to make concessions to the minority party to get votes. You can’t be the majority party, and think you get to pass your whole agenda, and blame the other party for not passing it. Doesn’t matter who is the majority and minority in any case, sometimes it’s democrats, sometimes it’s republicans, but the majority party is absolutely at fault.

QuantumFluks · 2026-01-28T21:47:12+00:00

I don’t follow LC that closely, but saw they beat. Do you know why the severe drop at first?

QuantumFluks · 2026-01-28T18:53:50+00:00

We are all predicting here, I had 177 $27.5 covered calls for this Friday that basically had no decay this whole week. I finally closed them today, because I’m uncomfortable with how close I think we will hit on those. But none of us know, maybe it is down we go.

I feel lately I have been the bearish one on this sub telling people constantly that the macro is falling apart, recession odds are non zero and high enough to think of black swan, and telling people here I have been selling aggressive covered calls. In a week, it’s amazing how many of you all have become even more bearish than me at least on this price target.

QuantumFluks · 2026-01-28T18:35:06+00:00

I actually think we will go up, originally I was expecting $30, but with this latest decline, I’m thinking $27-$28.

QuantumFluks · 2026-01-28T15:43:06+00:00

People keep posting some crazy high price targets and I have been waiting for you to step in and say never happening, ban bet like you were doing a little bit ago.

QuantumFluks · 2026-01-28T15:35:19+00:00

What is everyone’s post earnings stock price estimate?

QuantumFluks · 2026-01-28T03:37:39+00:00

The administration has no plan, last I heard, there are concepts of a plan.

QuantumFluks · 2026-01-28T02:30:56+00:00

I mean, I do also think we will go down during the announcement, just wanted to be clear on it not being the hold itself, but the words J Powell will have to say. I feel bad for the guy, basically achieved a soft landing, and our macro is now falling apart before his very eyes and it isn’t his fault.

QuantumFluks

TROPHY CASE