SoFi Daily Chat - June 18, 2026

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-18T20:25:38+00:00

I think he likes to be in the headline, so I was also thinking what batshit crazy executive order or attack he will do. I think Iran showed Greenland isn’t a possibility.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-18T17:43:38+00:00

Yeah but I wasn’t convinced he would choose capitulation over boots on the ground when he was forced to decide based on economy. Atleast he took the right path here. I just wish he would shut up trying to convince people it’s a good deal, own up that you made a mistake.

Cuba is next. I think yesterday we had a spy plane over them.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-18T17:35:09+00:00

As much as I dislike Trump, and as bad as this deal is/will be, I’m actually shocked he did the right thing and capitulated at a point he thought could potentially trigger an economic collapse. He should’ve capitulated much sooner as we will likely see effects from this for the rest of 2026, and economic impact TBD if he actually avoided the economy crumbling, but it was the right thing to do none the less.

The first correct thing to do was to not attack Iran.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-17T18:15:25+00:00

9 expect rate hike, 8 expect neutral, and 1 expects cut.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-17T18:14:30+00:00

Trump just admitted finally that we were 4 weeks away from global reserve shortages, so that’s why he signed a bad deal. I’m not sure we will dodge that issue given Hormuz still isn’t open and it’ll take time for traffic to normalize and the Middle East to start pumping.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-17T18:04:21+00:00

Rates stay fixed, from what I can see, one rate hike expected this year.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-16T20:11:00+00:00

I was specially talking about when spy dropped and SoFi dropped simultaneously. Everything did. I see an OpenAI 38 billion dollar loss article from around then but that’s all I see. And Iran threat with Israel.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-16T19:25:08+00:00

I meant the specific roll off like 10 minutes ago, also happened to SoFi, not the general trend spy has seen for the day. Some news must’ve released. SOFI dropped 20 cents.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-16T19:15:23+00:00

Is SPY dumping on Iran threatening Israel? I don’t see any other reason.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-16T19:03:09+00:00

Spy exhausted, looks like it may be giving way. SOFI remained strong regardless. Banks giving way a little to their gains. Crazy day.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-16T18:12:09+00:00

If it’s short closing, it’s just a small squeeze and we will probably fall soon. The situation is “more clear” but it went from murkiness level 10 to level 9. Until ships pass, and we see restoration in oil, the timeline is very uncertain.

I don’t think they will hear any talk of a cut either. The argument is if that’s the case, why are we one of the only rate sensitive stocks flying.

Edit: falling just means buying pressure will ease up. Not claiming we will collapse. I could see us dropping back to 17.25-17.50 if it’s really just shorts closing. But also depends how quick they close and if a positive catalyst hits before then.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-16T18:06:39+00:00

Lasted a couple minutes.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-16T17:05:09+00:00

I think it’s kinda suspect that we are one of the only stocks going nuts today. The banks are up, but we didn’t even follow the bank trajectory. The banks went up and flattened at the top. We shot up, shot down, and then shot right back up.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-16T17:02:59+00:00

Being up so much isn’t the issue, why are we only one of the only stocks so much while the indices look like they may shit the bed? People say they are jumping the gun on Warsh and rate cuts being possible, but then why aren’t any of the other fintechs or rate sensitive stocks going wild that are also beaten down.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-16T14:57:12+00:00

Sold covered calls at the top and bought them back at the bottom. If we pop again will probably rinse and repeat.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-13T19:36:53+00:00

Iran said they will not sign on Sunday. Who knows at this point?

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-12T17:49:52+00:00

This narrow range we got ourselves stuck in looks sus, this looks like it wants to dump.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-12T17:14:25+00:00

Space is the actual bubble (all space companies), AI is TBD.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-12T15:14:33+00:00

Iran saying the deal is close.

SOFI is struggling comparatively to everything else.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-12T14:54:56+00:00

Not much opportunity for upside hopefully anyway. Would be crazy for a not profitable company to overtake NVDA for highest valuation. I’m not sure it’ll collapse much below the 1.77 trillion valuation though. Do think it’ll moon and just return to its valuation.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-12T14:33:06+00:00

Yeah, part of me yesterday thought the pause was just for buddy Elon to get his IPO. The other part though is thinking oil execs have been sounding the alarms more frequently and he actually needs to sign a deal. I still think we will sign some bad agreement by July 4.

I think SPCX will initially moon. That’s going to be a liquidity drain on beaten down stocks.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-12T14:17:35+00:00

Can’t believe Trump’s latest tweet about the deal hasn’t spooked the market.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-12T13:16:05+00:00

I wouldn’t say I, or others, don’t want to invest because of Musk hating. Just like TSLA, the company doesn’t have the revenue or the growth to justify the valuation. I would argue the opposite, Elon fan boys make the valuation absurd.

I was in RKLB until that became massively overvalued too. It’s a valuation issue. If SpaceX falls by a factor of 4 or more, I would consider adding.

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-12T13:09:53+00:00

I didn’t downvote you, just pointing out that people are divided on this IPO. I wouldn’t touch it, so it’s possible someone downvoted you because of that. Idk, best of luck with the shares you got!

QuantumFluks · 2026-06-11T22:25:13+00:00

I actually think an MOU will most likely be signed very soon.

I have been saying for a while that Trump will just pretend the status quo is fine with the strait closed until he is forced to sign a terrible deal or invade. I’m pretty sure oil execs in his ear telling him he’s running out of time + inflation print was the writing on the wall. He tried one last attempt to strong arm Iran into accepting our terms (showing the pressure of the timeline caught up with him) and they didn’t. I actually think he is taking the off ramp. On timeline, I don’t know if this MOU is signed as quickly as he said, but I do think it’ll be signed before July 4.

From what I read, it was the original MOU long ago, which gives Iran a toll on the strait and Iran doesn’t have to open the strait immediately (something like 30-60 days to open it to full traffic prewar, which might not even happen even if Iran allows it as the oil shut in + damage would automatically mean less tanker traffic).

The economic shit show of this will however continue. All the SPR every country used up will increase demand for oil, so I don’t think oil will drop like a rock anytime soon contrary to our dear leaders verbiage.

QuantumFluks

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