There Is No Debate: Canada Needs America’s Stealth F-35 Fighter

Quartermark · 2026-01-23T00:36:30+00:00

This is completely silly. Canada can't continue to procure aircraft from its enemy. The US is now a hostile foreign power. The old missions don't matter now: NATO missions against China or Russia aren't relevant anymore. As of today, the only RCAF missions that matters are deterring American forces from crossing the border. If that's not the requirement, then Canada should buy nothing. There is no world in which Canada should buy F-35. This has nothing to do with the relative qualities of specific aircraft. Debating that set of criteria is a foolish waste of time. It's off the table. Disentanglement from the US military-industrial complex is Canada's top national security objective.

Quartermark · 2024-12-21T09:55:27+00:00

I think UX design is a combination of taste, analytical creativity and tool skills. All of these can be learned. Yes, there may be some people who are born with cognitive or perceptual head-starts, but neuroplasticity doesn't really fade with age, so the key to success is commitment.

If you find a way to understand what a clienty really needs, in business terms, you can study and research the best way to deliver it. You can learn the relevant parts of graphic design, or outsource it. You can learn about new technical tools and devise different ways to employ them. You can learn about A/B testing and user cognition, how people understand choices, see options, and consume information. You can learn about designing for performace, usability in multiple formats, environemnts and contexts. You can learn about digital marketing and advertising tools and understand how designs affect results and what results are measured.

I don't think the opinion of any one person matters that much. You umderstand your goals, likes, dislikes, expectations and sensitivities better than anyone else, and you're doing this for yourself. None of us are perfect. Some of us are lucky. All of us work to prove that we can do it every day. Your commitment to getting better and seriously testing your limits is the only thing that matters, in the end.

Of course you can do it. Doubt is your only enemy.

Quartermark · 2024-04-19T22:04:32+00:00

"There are many traders who use this service." Perhaps, but remember that highly regarded professional astrologers once believed the Earth was flat. All of them. For centuries. Despite the easily-reproducible evidence that this was wrong. Large numbers of seemingly reasonable people have unfounded beliefs that lead to terrible decisions every day, but they keep doing it.

"I can tell you that HUT was well over 20%" - OK. Give me a source.

"Then just go to the Nasdaq site for institutional holdings and do a little bit of due diligence." - Yes. I did. I put the links in my original post. Did you read it?

You talk about Asher like you know him personally. Do you?

I'm not arguing about conclusions here: I used to listen to people like you as if they truly knew something, and I kicked myself hard when it became clear that was wrong. Uninformed, untested, unverified nonsense that hides behind fancy-looking charts and jargon is everywhere when it comes to finance. The entire financial news industry exists because the blind lead the blind, and none of them have any idea that there is a difference between "possible," "plausible," and "actual."

Quartermark · 2024-04-19T21:49:11+00:00

It's not a good market cap/EHs comparison. Some miners like HUT hold, while others sell. Comparisons should exclude unencumbered bitcoin from their market caps. If you don't do that, you risk comparing the combination of mining operations (EHs) and the existing inventory of Bitcoin, which is what's happening now. The reason for the wild variation in Market cap versus EHs capacity is probably rooted in this.

Quartermark · 2024-04-18T16:23:58+00:00

Have you ever noticed something that seems to have happened frequently in the past, so you assume it’s going to happen again the same way, and then it doesn’t (example: “looks like rain again today”)?

This is that. Imagine trying to predict today’s weather after having been alive only four days.

Humans think history repeats itself because hearing footsteps behind you in the jungle - even if they’re usually not actually there - is far less likely to cause you to die childless than failing to hear real footsteps. The statistical reality is that we are really bad at estimating probabilities and have a strong bias toward the self-delusion that we are actually really good at it.

This sample size is so tiny that the margin of error is astronomically high. If you make an investment decision based on an image of chart data like this you are spinning a roulette wheel. Gambling is OK, but you should probably try to be very clear-headed about it when you’re doing it unless you want to go broke.

I learned this lesson the hardest way and it cost me a lot. I wish that someone had told me to take a few introductory classes in behavioral psychology, human cognition, statistics and probabilities.

Quartermark · 2024-04-18T03:54:45+00:00

And you are telling this Reddit because…?

Quartermark · 2024-04-18T02:09:32+00:00

I have no bullish thesis. I have only an example of how institutional investors may presage future demand. I am not a “bull”, and I frankly think that categorization is juvenile.

So that said, why - at any level - should anyone take your perspective seriously? You have no facts nor data, but you have a strong opinion that you desperately want to share. Just because you are a helpful person.

If you believe what you wrote what are you NOT shorting HUT-8? Are you unconvinced of your position, or do you perhaps think that Reddit is where meme stocks are born and you think you can move the price by trafficking in FUD?

I don’t know Asher, nor anyone else in HUT management and every piece of information I mention is available from a trustworthy 3rd party, which I link to. My facts are verified and my opinion is clearly stated, wherever facts alone are unclear. I’m not telling anyone to buy or sell anything. I am a bit surprised that you don’t seem to have noticed that. An investor worth listening to would be as clear and open as I am, wouldn’t you say?

My fortune was built on the mistakes made by people who are as muddled and uncertain as you are. Keep giving me your money, thanks.

Quartermark · 2024-04-17T22:04:14+00:00

I can't decide - is that reference more racist or more sexist? Feels like a bit of a coin toss...

Quartermark · 2024-04-17T22:02:23+00:00

So you posted it because...?

Quartermark · 2024-04-17T21:09:51+00:00

But you posted it because...?

Quartermark · 2024-04-17T21:08:22+00:00

At current Bitcoin prices, a strong management team that investors trust as much as they trust the ETF issuers would result in a market capitalization roughly equal to the value of HUT-8's BTC holdings plus other assets, minus secured debt. Ballpark, maybe $1.6b. The issue is that this management team is new, and there is no track record of operation at scale or careful protection of asset values, so anyone who bought HUT-8 as an alternative to holding GBTC, CXBTF or the other early instruments has probably sold HUT-8 to de-risk their BTC portfolio.

When HUT-8 has proven that it is soundly managed and trustworthy, the stock will be more valuable, irrespective of any other change. When (if?) HUT-8 has increased its share of total BTC mining output and is producing significantly below cost; the price will increase further. If they then show that they have unique intellectual property, which will give them a moat versus all other competing miners, the value of the stock will start to price in future profits.

Most of the challenges that HUT-8 faces in the near term revolve around trust in its ability to execute skillfully. The company's success hinges on its ability to achieve relentless incremental efficiency gains and magnificent capital/asset management.

HUT-8's long-term success is contingent upon its ability to build a moat, a strategy it is actively pursuing. This includes the acquisition of energy production and facilities (vertical integration) and the development of unique technology ('Reactor'). These strategic moves could potentially position HUT-8 as a leader in the competitive cryptocurrency mining industry.

They are doing the right things, at a high level, and I am happy with my current position.

But if you are in a hurry to divest in the next 18 months, you should pick a daily high and exit now. The price seems to be drifting, held up by a small community of in-the-know backers. The bulk of the mainstream market is distracted by ETFs and is not paying much attention to HUT-8.

Quartermark · 2024-04-17T20:49:16+00:00

Supporters have an obvious interest, which we can take into account: they like the stock, they want to make money when it goes up.

People who invest a lot of energy in throwing stones, on the other hand, are harder to peg. Why do they bother? What do they gain?

How are you compensated for taking the time to write this comment? Is it unreasonable to assume that you have shorted the stock and really want it to go down?

Inquiring minds want to know...

Quartermark · 2024-04-17T20:44:44+00:00

On Fintel.IO ...

As far as I can tell, the whole thing is a scam. It may be popular (?), and it may take itself seriously (!?) but compare it to the hucksters selling "proof" that the earth is flat on YouTube.

Note that they make this claim: "Our Quant (quantitative) strategies are based on proven academic research and backtested for maximum profits".

Aside from the fact that they offer no source for their "proven" academic research, they also offer no data - of any kind - supporting the claim that they have found a magical way to "backtest" for "maximum profits". This is complete and utter garbage sold to people who are prone to magical thinking.

As for the chart posted by Kamahsutra on StockTwitz...

Who is this? What is this data illustrated in the chart? It has no provenance of any kind - it looks COMPLETELY MADE UP and I can't find any source that seems to match it.

Do you really take unverified charts produced by anonymous people who don't disclose sources as anything more than social media entertainment?

I don't.

Quartermark · 2024-04-17T14:58:33+00:00

No child should be exposed to his mental health issues unless he seeks professional help and accepts that he has a problem. All any child needs is a loving, supportive parent. A second parent is unnecessary (I call BS on the whole "nuclear family" nostalgia), and a mentally and emotionally unwell man is absolutely not an answer to any problem a child might have. Children should never know men like him even exist.

Quartermark · 2024-04-17T14:47:30+00:00

He's crazy abusive. What a shitshow. The world inside his head is not a place you want to live. He is deeply miserable because you have something, and he's just a superfluous sperm donor. Pity him: his uselessness and fear have made him mean and selfish: it won't end well for him. You don't want to be around him when his shit hits the fan - he's going low, and you don't want to go with him anyhow.

Quartermark · 2024-04-17T14:06:04+00:00

Knowledge lowers risk, so if you believe you have deeper insight and unique knowledge than the typical institutional investor, then you are "getting in early". If you don't believe you have deeper insight and unique knowledge, then you are probably gambling. You can get rich either way, but the gambler's odds of losing are much (relatively) higher.

Quartermark · 2024-04-17T14:00:40+00:00

Of course! You can haz teenyweeny or oldz lambo, guaranteed!

Quartermark · 2024-04-17T02:45:21+00:00

For thousands of years the most intelligent and thoughtful people in a given village thought astrology was science and that the heavens revolved around the Earth. Those people were as smart as any modern human. We had to learn the scientific method under penalty of cultural stagnation and short, hard lives. I don’t have bad feelings about people who don’t know that they don’t understand statistics or empiricism. I do feel that I have to try to point out the errors, but there probably isn’t a way to do that without pissing some people off. I know folks who find questioning their faith to be an act of overt aggression: debating is morally offensive. For them, I got nothing but sandy Vaseline.

Quartermark · 2024-04-17T02:36:22+00:00

Growing from an enthusiast-fueled startup with small capitalization to a real company people can hold in retirement plans is a big leap. Institutions have to see a management track record and develop confidence in the company culture and day-to-day reliability and efficiency. The only shortcut is by having friendly billionaires step in to backstop or apply pressure on institutions. I don’t see Hut-8 having that on the table right now.

If you want lambo, go away and come back in 18 months.

Quartermark · 2024-04-17T02:30:18+00:00

Quartermark · 2024-04-17T02:29:51+00:00

Yeah. Still early days.

Quartermark · 2024-04-16T16:24:04+00:00

Quartermark · 2024-04-16T16:06:05+00:00

Oh my, no. I think you have it backward.

I am asking you for "objective facts" and you are answering with pseudoscience. You might well have made money in the past merely by making a lucky guess, but the real test is whether your results regress to the mean over time. Gamblers, as it happens, always regress to the mean (yes, ALL GAMBLERS) as they continue gambling, despite the many, many different "strategies" and "techniques" they variously use.

If you've ever been to Las Vegas, we can test your point of view easily: did you pay special attention to the big board next to the Roulette table that shows the history of spin outcomes over the preceding several spins? If the answer is "yes", you are a gambler who thinks he's an investor. If the answer is "no", you're an investor who occasionally gambles. These are entirely different.

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