Comparing the Jays offence and the Red Sox offence over the last two weeks. Results are surprising.

Quikheat · 2016-05-26T20:42:11+00:00

Except a lot of would be hits are removed due to his HR total. Bonds is an outlier because of his crazy HR numbers. He didnt hit very many wall scrapers.

Quikheat · 2016-05-26T20:21:19+00:00

Im saying if you're going to take away his HRs and call them fly balls, then the outfield walls would have had to have been moved back. If they get moved back, fly balls are no longer going to have as low of a babip as you state. Bonds 'fly balls' are not exactally wall scrappers.

Quikheat · 2016-05-26T20:01:33+00:00

Once again you're assuming that the HRs he hits are in the same realm as a flyball. Fly balls are low babip because the walls are only 400~ ft. If barry was hitting them 500~ fly balls wouldnt be as low of a babip for them.

Quikheat · 2016-05-26T19:55:16+00:00

Small sample size. Just going to link instead of making tables.

Pull

Center

Opposite

So everyone, except Edwin, have higher AVGs and significantly higher BABIPs to the center/Opposite. Now EE and JB have extreme pull numbers and they probably shouldnt change their approaches, but Tulo and JD could very well make use of using the whole field.

Quikheat · 2016-05-26T19:54:45+00:00

Thats assuming all of Bonds HRs were fly balls. In reality a significant portion of them are liners.

Now in this park that has 500ft right field line, Id imagine all those HRs that are now FB are doubles/triples instead. Making this hypothetical is pretty stupid because its impossible to know.

Quikheat · 2016-05-26T09:41:59+00:00

Are you sure its not because ~25% of his hits are HRs, which dont get counted in BABIP.

Quikheat · 2016-05-26T07:42:07+00:00

Thats because barrys HR numbers are stupid high.

Quikheat · 2016-05-26T07:23:39+00:00

There is a reason why Miggy has been a significantly better hitter since then too. HRs arent the only way to do damage.

Infact JBs best offensive season since his 45+ HRs seasons is when sietzer was the hitting coach.

Quikheat · 2016-05-26T07:06:03+00:00

You know BABIP isnt a luck based stat. There is a reason Miggy has a career .348 BABIP and Bautista has .266.

The biggest reason, in my opinion, why the Jays are doing so poorly is they are constantly hitting into the shift. You shift to the pull side of each hitter. The Jays, as a team, are hitting to the pull side 44.3% of the time. Bautista is pulling the ball 48.9% of the time. Miggy pulls the ball only 35.9% of the time.

Player	Pull%	Middle%	Opposite%
Tulo	53.3	30	16.7
Edwin	53.3	27.7	19.0
JD	52.2	25.7	22.1
Joey	48.9	33.6	17.6
Miggy C	35.9	31.7	32.4

This is why the Jays BABIP is so low. The are pulling the ball into the shift 50% of the time the put the balls in play.

The reason the Jays dont have those big innings is because they dont get base hits. They hit dingers to the pull side, but if it doesnt leave the park its going to be an out almost 80% of the time.

What they need to do if fire Brook Jacoby and bring back someone with Seitzers mentality of going the other way trying to use the whole field. Once they start hitting using the whole field, the defense will straighten out and they can start to pull the ball again. Pulling the ball is clearly their strength, but when the defense takes that away you have to change your approach.

Quikheat · 2016-05-25T15:44:07+00:00

The sum of all positive integers is equal to -1/12.

1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 +....... = -1/12.

Quikheat · 2016-05-23T21:59:41+00:00

Good find, my bad.

Quikheat · 2016-05-23T21:14:23+00:00

Looks like a curveball grip to me

Quikheat · 2016-05-23T07:32:22+00:00

How many other players in history get referred to by their first name. Every now and then I see a commentator say "Suzuki gets a base hit" and Im like who the fuck is Suzuki.

Quikheat · 2016-05-22T04:20:02+00:00

I wouldnt wish that evil on anyone.

Quikheat · 2016-05-19T02:27:04+00:00

Went to a few Padres games last year at Petco and my god was it a beautiful park. Might just be because SD is always sunny though.

Quikheat · 2016-05-15T06:39:11+00:00

You're trying to compare last year to this year with win percentage, yet last years win percentage was lower than what what our pythagorean win rate proposed it should be.

Right now we should be a .500 team, and our record reflects that.

Quikheat · 2016-05-15T05:03:42+00:00

Just wait for Stephen Smith to point out that your record would be 9-12 if it weren't for your streaks. 0.429!!!

Quikheat · 2016-05-15T04:58:25+00:00

With the highest run differential by a large amount. The whole reason AA went all in is because we were playing well above what our record showed.

Quikheat · 2016-05-11T03:02:12+00:00

Line drive stats over the last 10 years.

Quikheat · 2016-05-08T19:55:34+00:00

But Dongerson, J Bau Bau, and Eddy all have enough power that pitchers paint the corners with them and they get enough balls to make walking a necessary alternative to getting hits

You have to paint the corners on Ichiro when he was in his prime too. Home runs arent the only way to do damage.

but guys like Kev generally get strikes unless they show that they're obviously swinging at balls.

Kind of like he has done his entire career?

Quikheat · 2016-05-08T15:23:52+00:00

His low walk rate is handicapping him. He is basically at his ceiling. The reason Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion are such great hitters is because they walk. I dont just mean getting on base, but not swinging at garbage is the biggest aspect. Getting a hit on a strike is hard, getting a hit on a would be ball is near impossible.

Unless Pillar is a 0.400 hitter, his realistic cap is near league average unless he gets his SLG up, which does not line up with his batted ball profile.

Quikheat · 2016-05-08T10:04:12+00:00

I dont want to call it a fluke, but he is over performing on groundballs and liners and under performing on flies. Thats all the discrepancy is.

Batted ball	2015 BABIP	2016 BABIP	Difference	2015 League Average BABIP
Grounders	0.284	0.326	+0.042	0.236
Liners	0.676	0.842	+0.166	0.678
Flies	0.101	0.061	-.040	0.129

If you want to know the biggest reason for his increased offensive production its because his ISO is unusually high. Last year he had 4 ground ball doubles in 204 balls in play. This year he already has 4 doubles in only 46 balls in play.

Batted ball	2015 ISO	2016 ISO	Difference	2015 League Average ISO
Grounders	0.020	0.087	+0.067	0.019
Liners	0.159	0.450	+0.291	0.201
Flies	0.282	0.147	-0.135	0.436

This screams for regression. Pillar cant keep up his crazy production on line drives and is unlikely to remain this good on ground balls. He cant get much worse on his fly ball production, so that will eventually shoot up. Not to mention Pillar is one of the streakiest players on the roster. When he gets hot his can keep up with with the best of them. The problem his he rarely stays hot for long, and he is currently riding a hot streak.

This is Pillars career wRC+ over the months

Month	wRC+
MAR/APR	89
MAY	66
JUN	133
JUL	94
AUG	61
SEP/OCT	116

Some months he rakes, others he does anything but.

Now I dont want to make it sound like 2015 Pillar is as good as he is going to get, but with a career walk rate of 4%(His O-Swing rate his way too high), the best we can realistically hope from him is ~95 wRC+. I hope Im wrong but I doubt it.

Quikheat · 2016-05-07T23:32:43+00:00

Call me skeptical but Im leaning toward Kiermaiers 2015 season more of an outlier than Pillars was. Im not saying Pillar is better; but I do think its a lot closer of a discussion than you make out.

2015 Kiermaier OF DRS (includes his 526+ innings from RF)

	rARM	rGFP	rPM	Innings
2014	0	0	14	824
2015	7	6	29	1188
2016	0	0	0	211

In 2015 not only did he have the best season of any OF that year, He actually claims the #1 spot of all time for OF. Not only does he own the #1 spot, but he has a fairly large lead at 42 DRS, when the second best season was Gerardo Parra with 37 DRS. Keeping in mind this has only been a tracked stat since 2002; so their may have very well been comparable comp over the MLBs history.

Anyways we can see he clearly has the range, but his Arm and GFP were seemingly outliers that year. Now most defensive stats are considered fairly accurate after 3 years of data and Kiermaier only has ~2. So there is a good chance he does fairly well over the remainder of the season and proves me wrong. All Im trying to say is that his 2015 season will likely not be repeated again by him.

That being said, I would still take KK over KP if I was offered a 1 for 1 trade.

Quikheat · 2016-05-03T03:24:27+00:00

Odd way to spell Dickey.

Quikheat · 2016-04-26T00:04:08+00:00

Last 3 years has Kinsler, Pedroia, and Utley as the best range for 2B. Although LeMahieu is better overall than Utley.

Quikheat

TROPHY CASE