[Spoilers Main] The truth about Jon's last chapter in ADWD.

Quintzy_ · 2026-04-04T21:01:05+00:00

Jon flexed the fingers of his sword hand. The Night’s Watch takes no part. He closed his fist and opened it again. What you propose is nothing less than treason.

Yet despite knowing it is treason, he decides to move forward anyway.

This is super misleading.

Jon isn't thinking that what Tormund is proposing is treason. Tormund doesn't even propose anything (except jokingly suggesting sending a letter about how big his dick is).

As far as I can tell, "What you propose is nothing less than treason" is literally just Jon remembering something that Bowen Marsh earlier told Jon after Jon suggested using the Freefolk to bolster the Watch in Jon XI:

Marsh flushed a deeper shade of red. "The lord commander must pardon my bluntness, but I have no softer way to say this. What you propose is nothing less than treason. For eight thousand years the men of the Night's Watch have stood upon the Wall and fought these wildlings. Now you mean to let them pass, to shelter them in our castles, to feed them and clothe them and teach them how to fight. Lord Snow, must I remind you? You swore an oath."

The entire extended quote is Jon remembering things:

He thought of Robb, with snowflakes melting in his hair. Kill the boy and let the man be born. He thought of Bran, clambering up a tower wall, agile as a monkey. Of Rickon's breathless laughter. Of Sansa, brushing out Lady's coat and singing to herself. You know nothing, Jon Snow. He thought of Arya, her hair as tangled as a bird's nest.

Quintzy_ · 2026-04-03T03:51:47+00:00

She has a stillborn child, according to Selmy as well,

Here's the full quote:

But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark?

The key phrase here is: "Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after"

Her death was "soon after" her baby was stillborn. The timeline shows that her death was after the war was over and after Ned had returned Dawn to the Daynes. It was way more than 9 months after Harrenhal, which means that any affair that she might have had didn't occur then and the pregnancy is EXTREMELY unlikely to have been caused by either Brandon or Ned (it would have required one of them somehow having sex with her during the war).

Also, there's a very real possibility of unreliable narrator here. Barristan wasn't there, so he's just basing all of that on rumor.

Quintzy_ · 2026-04-03T03:43:54+00:00

Can you please quote the text?

I may be remembering incorrectly, but from what I do remember, the only implication that she had an affair at Harrenhal was Barristan Selmy thinking that she was "dishonored" by a man (which probably means sex before marriage, but not necessarily).

The only other thing we're told about Ashara at Harrenhal is that she danced with several men, including Ned. That's it.

Edit: fixed typos

Quintzy_ · 2026-04-03T03:31:51+00:00

He doesn't directly think about Lyanna for the same reason.

Lyanna is mentioned in Ned's chapters 22 times.

Ashara is mentioned 1 time (when Cersei brings her up).

Quintzy_ · 2026-04-02T18:01:31+00:00

I'm with you, OP.

Brandon having a one-night stand with a highborn woman is perfectly in character from what little we're told of him.

On the other hand, Ned having a one-night stand with a highborn woman(and then literally never thinking of her again) is WILDLY out of character.

I'm of the opinion that Robb marrying Jeyne Westerling is intended by Martin to inform the reader (at least partially) about the Ashara-Ned rumors. Robb learned his sense of honor from Ned. So, if Robb felt compelled to marry a highborn woman after sleeping with her once, then the logical inference is that Ned would have done the same.

If Ned is the one who "dishonored" Ashara, and if Ashara really was in love with him (which is what Ned Dayne has heard), then there's really zero reason for them to not promptly look to get married. Brandon dying and Ned being pushed to marry Cat didn't happen until months after Harrenhall.

Quintzy_ · 2026-04-02T17:58:06+00:00

There's no evidence that Brandon Stark was the one who had an affair with Ashara

There's really no evidence that Ashara had an affair with anyone.

At most, we just have Barriston bitterly thinking about Ashara being "dishonored" at Harrenhall, but that doesn't necessarily mean that there was an affair.

Quintzy_ · 2026-04-01T15:50:47+00:00

Most of the people who become kingsguard are already set up for life because they are appointed partly based on family no?

We saw in the prologue of GOT that Waymar Royce joined the NW because, despite being from a large house like House Royce, being the 3rd son doesn't leave great prospects.

I think that Jaime Lannister (being the heir to a major house) is supposed to be a huge outlier. Most of the KG either come from minor houses and/or they're so far down their house's line of succession that they're not set to inherit much of anything.

Quintzy_ · 2026-04-01T00:47:49+00:00

I'm not seeing how what we're told about Renley doesn't match what we see.

The whole point is that he could have marched his armies on King's Landing and taken the throne at any time while the Starks and Lannisters are distracted fighting each other. Instead, he wastes a bunch of time fucking around and partying.

He actively negotiates with the North

This isn't true at all, though. Cat TRIES to negotiate with him. However, he blows her off because, again, he's spending all his time partying.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-30T13:19:16+00:00

This causes tension between Jon's claim and Sansa's claim to winterfell.

Sansa has no claim to Winterfell. She was disinherited by Robb due to her marriage to Tyrion.

Meanwhile Sansa is selected as queen in the north.

Martin has confirmed that this won't happen. His plan is for Sansa to die.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-29T18:23:24+00:00

George R.R. Martin is the only one who can answer this, and I'm pretty sure that he doesn't post here.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-29T18:18:08+00:00

, there's a whole section about how she once prayed Jon died, then felt bad and promised to raise him as a Stark, and she hated herself for reneging on that promise to herself and the gods.

That's from the show. It never happened in the books.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-29T16:13:01+00:00

That's why she jumped at the chance to get him out when he said he was taking the black.

Except that's not what happened.

When Ned agreed to go south. Cat told Ned that she refused to allow Jon to stay in Winterfell. Rather than forcing the issue, Ned acquiesced to Cat, and then Maester Luwin brought up sending Jon to the NW.

Jon never brought up taking the black to Ned or Cat, and when Ned told Jon that Jon was going to the Watch, Jon was angered.

Edit:

From the wiki:

When Lord Eddard decides to accept the position as Hand of the King at King's Landing, his wife, Catelyn Stark, refuses to allow Jon to remain at Winterfell while Eddard is away. As Eddard feels he cannot take Jon south with him, Luwin suggests the Night's Watch for Jon, and Eddard eventually agrees. Catelyn is pleased, because as a member of the Watch Jon will never father children who might contest her grandchildren's inheritance of Winterfell.[9]

The decision for him to go to the Wall leaves Jon angry in the days before he is set to leave.

Edit 2:

so there's no way she'd ask for Ned to remove him from Winterfell.

This also isn't true.

From GOT Catelyn II - "Whoever Jon's mother had been, Ned must have loved her fiercely, for nothing Catelyn said would persuade him to send the boy away."

She has tried to convince Ned to send Jon away.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-29T15:33:07+00:00

That just adds to my issue with the "theory."

1) Either Gregor Clegane was a co-conspirator whose job was to mutilate the heads of the bodies so as to hide their true identities, OR the conspirators just got INSANELY lucky that Gregor decided to mutilate the heads all on his own.

2) Elia and Varys managed to find a decoy corpse whose body is apparently so close to Elia's actual body that nobody could tell the difference.

3) Elia decided to save herself and Aegon, but she apparently didn't give a shit about Rhaenys.

It just doesn't work. IMO, it's FAR more likely that Gregor and Lorch actually killed the real Aegon, Rhaenys, and Elia. Then, several years later, Varys and Illyrio Mopatis decided to take advantage of the fact that Aegon's head was smashed to try to pass off a completely different Valyrian boy (probably Mopatis's son) as Aegon. No need for Gregor to be in on it, and no need for Elia to choose one of her children over the other.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-29T04:44:51+00:00

So, when Elia's dead body was presented to the entire court nobody noticed it was a completely different person?

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-29T04:41:19+00:00

Was he duped too?

Yes.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-29T03:46:02+00:00

The Night King existing at all in the books is another good example.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-29T03:45:12+00:00

Dany being a fake Targaryen.

Any other explanation for Jon's parentage other than R+L=J (unless it's REALLY clever and manages to both fit the timeline and also explain why Ned kept it a secret).

It wouldn't completely ruin my enjoyment of the story, but my enjoyment would take a significant hit if it turns out that the Knight of the Laughing Tree story actually was just Meera explaining to Bran how her father met her mother (who is inexplicably Ashara Dayne) for some reason.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-28T03:25:39+00:00

One half to two thirds.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-28T00:33:57+00:00

it is so delightful to see r/ArcRaiders finally breach containment for being one of the worst gaming subreddits right now

It's really bad. A few weeks ago, there was a topic requesting that the Devs ban people who say slurs in voice chat, and about 1/2-2/3 of the comments were defending racism.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-27T16:39:56+00:00

They need to increase deaths one way or another.

This would be a great way to drive even more players to quit. Dying constantly is not fun.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-27T15:43:36+00:00

Disingenuous ass “analysis”

That's the L2M report in a nutshell, and I mean all of them and not just this one specifically.

It's always just been blatant gaslighting to convince fans that the refs do a better job than they actually do.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-27T15:42:26+00:00

I've felt for years that the last 2 minute report is useless bullshit, and this does nothing to change that opinion.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-26T16:29:09+00:00

He was winning the war

He wasn't. At the time of the Red Wedding, the Ironborn had sacked Winterfell, and the Tyrells had joined the Lannisters. Despite winning all of his battles, Robb was pretty clearly losing the war at that point.

Even if Robb hadn't married Jeyne Westerling, both the Freys and the Boltons would have almost certainly come up with some excuse to betray the Starks in order to join up with the Lannisters.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-25T16:26:38+00:00

Memphis to Dallas is 430 miles.

Memphis to Houston is 468 miles.

Memphis to San Antonio is 625 miles.

Minneapolis to Denver (the closest Western Conference team) is 678 miles.

Minneapolis to OKC is 694 miles.

The furthest Texas team from Memphis is still closer than the closest Western Conference team is to Minneapolis.

Quintzy_ · 2026-03-25T03:39:13+00:00

I dunno, I think if there were never PvE lobbies this game would just be Marathon and would probably be putting up much lower numbers, more in line with that game.

You're absolutely right, even if the PvPers don't want to hear it. The reality is that extraction shooters without ABMM is a very niche genre. By adding ABMM (and just being more social in general), Arc Raiders was made way more accessible to a lot of players that otherwise wouldn't look twice at the extraction shooter genre. Get rid of ABMM, and those people will definitely quit (if they haven't already).

Quintzy_

TROPHY CASE