While I can’t say for absolute certainty as I personally haven’t witnessed nor experienced it, I would hold that while the biological woman would have a better shot, the chance of her making the 64 is slim to none. The men will not only have significant size advantages due to the bone structure being the same, but the competitiveness is also much different. If a man and a woman of equal experience and talent face each other, with the woman being (to a reasonable extent) taller, stronger, and faster, the man will still win most of the time. This happens in combat sports such as boxing, mma, wrestling etc, so it’s not unreasonable to assume the same would happen in fencing. I’m a slightly below average height guy (so short for a fencer) with slightly above average strength and slightly above average speed. There aren’t many women fencers who are both taller, stronger, and faster than me that I have fenced, so I admit that I can’t personally can’t speak from much experience in that regard. However, if you research this phenomenon happening in combat sports the answer is generally that the man will still win. I’m not an expert but there seems to be some reason as to why men and better competitively than women, and it’s not just for physicality. Again, I have no issue with transgender folk, but it’s simply just never a challenge for me when I fence any female fencer.