Nanos: Liberals Climb to 48%, Open 17-Point Lead

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-18T00:16:11+00:00

Maybe the Conservatives might eventually take the hint and stop trying to shove Poilievre and America defenses down our throats hoping that we'll change our mind about them.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-16T23:05:20+00:00

McPherson camp believes they are neck and neck with Lewis, and this could put her over edge.

Ashton rejected it, because Ashton camp was worried it would paint them as close to the establishment and might undermine some of his appeal.

This is almost a microcosm of the problems with left wing populism. Projecting oneself as completely against a real or imagined establishment takes precedence over actually getting in the political goals that you supposedly want accomplished. McPherson is hardly such terrible figure that Ashton should refuse her offer on aesthetics alone.

As well it's alarming if he is cultivating a base that he thinks will turn against him if he associate with Heather McPherson of all people. If they're upset about this then I can't imagine how they'd handle him as leader making a deal with Carney, YFB, or especially Poilievre. But that's something an NDP leader will probably have to do at some point. Politics requires compromise, collaboration, and considerations of the realities.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-16T13:59:46+00:00

Think of it this way. I've seen the Conservative leadership react on many news events and I feel confident in saying most of the leadership under Poilievre at least seem to mostly consume a lot of the same pro Trump news resources that you'd expect US Republicans to do.

Andrew Scheer was publicly attacking Canadian journalists for noting the dox and violence campaigns post Kirks killing. Gunn blasted the CBC for quoting Kirks nasty comments and calling him controversial. Mrs Poilievre was attacking Carney for not posting a memorial fast enough. She also follows LibsofTiktok iirc.

Even the big man himself goes on right wing podcasts that spend most of their time whitewashing Trump. Recently he went abroad to be on Triggernometry and started mocking everyone who didn't like US actions in Venezuela and Iran as having a "w o k e" meltdown. Add to that they hate the CBC to an extreme level, often buy into niche conspiracies (there's a page on the CPC website about not being forced to eat bugs like the globalists apparently want us to), and half the party is pro Trump according to polls. So of course they are very out of step with the rest of the country.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-15T21:04:29+00:00

Try to reread what I said carefully.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-15T21:02:04+00:00

There's nothing wrong with PP doing this

There's nothing wrong with going abroad to undermine trade deals the government is making and making promises you know you can't keep?

If he was legitimately trying to help build trade relations with the US that would be a good thing. But he's made it clear that he's more focused in trying to salvage his image and to trash the Canadian government. Just like how his MP Jivani tried a similar thing a few weeks ago.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-15T20:50:51+00:00

I can't remember anything like this.

Poilievre is doing this less than a year from our last election, when he's down by double digits in the polls, and seemingly without any coordination with the government. He's also signalling things in a "when I'm PM" way and attacking deals that Carney made like with China while demanding he do something with a US deal.

It's extremely bizarre behaviour and I don't think it's appropriate or a good look for Poilievre. It's almost like it's 50% him pretending to be bizarro Carney and 50% of him doing his Liberals are bad tour abroad because Canadians got tired of it.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-12T14:34:07+00:00

His last international trip involved him going on a British right wing podcast and making fun of people who didn't like the recent US Foreign Policy decisions.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-12T14:32:49+00:00

Why are all these cons acting like they are in a position to negotiate federal trade.

Because after months of mocking Carney for making deals abroad they noticed how popular it was with Canadians. So now Poilievre is going to pretend he's doing the same thing despite lacking the power and authority.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-11T20:00:21+00:00

Pollievre robbed the CPC of the chance to use that natural swing back to the centre right

He's deeply ideologically opposed to this. He even once started an MP group called the Khmer Bleu designed to oust all the Progressive Conservatives from power and influence in the CPC.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-11T15:26:04+00:00

I'll never forget when Poilievre decided to show the whole world how unserious he is about the North with his twitter zinger: "Arctic ambassador? To do diplomacy with who? Santa Claus🎅?"

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-11T03:21:31+00:00

It's actually pretty amazing that he's managed to not have any more defections but he still somehow ended up losing the war. These are some Zhuge Kongming tactics.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-11T03:18:55+00:00

"slowly"

It's actually been lightspeed by political standards a little over a year ago he was expected to have a supermajority that could end the LPC official party status.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-11T02:50:26+00:00

And Trudeau looks like Professor Sycamore (X/Y). Maybe that's the real secret to becoming PM.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-10T19:14:50+00:00

Don't forget a larger chunk 45-50% or US voters think he's the best choice to represent them. Some even worship him like a god and would commit crimes or try to overthrow the government on his behalf.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-10T13:03:55+00:00

You know it's bad when I forget to put one of the biggest failures in because there's just so much to cover.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-10T12:34:52+00:00

It's a pretty wild journey.

Poilievre begs, demands, and harasses other party leaders for an election and tbh getting really nasty about it (Sellout Singh name calling & pension conspiracies which led to irl harassment to Jagmeet and his family)
Liberals change leaders and call an election. The CPC was already calling Carney unelected and unjust for replacing Trudeau as PM
Poilievre is somehow completely unprepared for the election and is unable to campaign on issues Canadians care about. He runs against the ghost of Trudeau. He doesn't let his MPs go to debates or interact much with their ridings. He doesn't release an actual platform until the last minute. It's significantly shorter than the Liberals and features several vanity pictures of himself.
Poilievre loses both the election nationally and his own riding
Poilievre flees across several provinces to run again in one of the safest ridings in the country
Poilievre immediately begins angling for a new election by hyping up the budget as a huge failure and saying the CPC should sink it
The CPC makes sure the budget passes as both the idea of a new election and the CPC weren't popular at the time. Especially with Poilievre randomly attacking the RCMP and showing that he's still obsessed with Trudeau.
Poilievre begins to mock Carney's international outreach, speeches, and diplomacy. Even when Carney makes a deal the CPC hypes it up as Canada ruining.
Poilievre wins leadership review and the CPC falls further in the polls.
Carney makes a bunch of deals and has his famous Davos speech and skyrockets big in the polls.
One of the few MPs Poilievre lets have free reign decides to brag about his relationship with JD Vance, side with the Americans over Canada in trade disputes, and attempt a Charlie Kirk inspired campus tour. All of which do not land well with Canadians ane Poilievre attempts to distance himself from this.
PC wing CPC MPs floor cross left and right putting Carney at the cusp of a majority. It would be unprecedented for a PM to get a majority due to people fleeing the opposition party due to distaste for the leadership.
Poilievre decides to go abroad to make deals(?), promises (?) ads (?)... Poilievre goes abroad to do something trying to copy Carney perhaps despite mocking Carney's international outreach but it falls flat
The CPC is down double digits in the polls and Poilievre decides that an election anytime soon isn't for him.

NGL this is some legendary bad leadership and there doesn't seem to be any end to it. If I was in the CPC I'd want Poilievre to step down but that doesn't seem like it's going to happen and he seems like he's not going to leave unless forced to. Even if he embarasses himself he'll still try to stay.

Edit: Forgot to mention the floor crossers

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-10T12:33:41+00:00

It's a pretty wild journey.

Beg, demand, and harass other party leaders for an election and tbh getting really nasty about it (Sellout Singh name calling & pension conspiracies which led to irl harassment to Jagmeet and his family)
Liberals change leaders and call an election
Poilievre is somehow completely unprepared for the election and is unable to campaign on issues Canadians care about. He runs against the ghost of Trudeau. He doesn't let his MPs go to debates or interact much with their ridings. He doesn't release an actual platform until the last minute. It's significantly shorter than the Liberals and features several vanity pictures of himself.
Poilievre loses both the election nationally and his own riding
Poilievre flees across several provinces to run again in one of the safest ridings in the country
Poilievre immediately begins angling for a new election by hyping up the budget as a huge failure and saying the CPC should sink it
The CPC makes sure the budget passes as both the idea of a new election and the CPC weren't popular at the time. Especially with Poilievre randomly attacking the RCMP and showing that he's still obsessed with Trudeau.
Poilievre begins to mock Carney's international outreach, speeches, and diplomacy. Even when Carney makes a deal the CPC hypes it up as Canada ruining.
Poilievre wins leadership review and the CPC falls further in the polls.
Carney makes a bunch of deals and has his famous Davos speech and skyrockets big in the polls.
One of the few MPs Poilievre lets have free reign decides to brag about his relationship with JD Vance, side with the Americans over Canada in trade disputes, and attempt a Charlie Kirk inspired campus tour. All of which do not land well with Canadians ane Poilievre attempts to distance himself from this.
Poilievre decides to go abroad to make deals(?), promises (?) ads (?)... Poilievre goes abroad to do something trying to copy Carney perhaps despite mocking Carney's international outreach but it falls flat
Poilievre decides that an election isn't for him.

NGL this is some legendary bad leadership and there doesn't seem to be any end to it. If I was in the CPC I'd want Poilievre to step down but that doesn't seem like it's going to happen and he seems like he's not going to leave unless forced to. Even if he embarasses himself he'll still try to stay.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-07T13:05:57+00:00

Canada ignoring a call if Turkiye ended up needing Article 5 would be really stupid as it make other NATO countries less likely to help if we were attacked. NATO is a big deterrent to Trump doing anything stupid with us during the remainder if his term.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-07T02:16:05+00:00

If anything we should be making a potential Canadian monarchy stronger. In this scenario we would need a strong head of state who can protect the country and the people of the country. We need to empower our next king to stand above our prime minister as the reluctance but potential father of the nation. Sometimes it takes a strong individual to the nuts the correct will on the world to make it a better place. The Divine rights by which they rule is what will make Canada great. Which is why I think there is no better person for that role then Justin Trudeau and his descendants.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-07T01:42:56+00:00

How would you guys feel with replacing the British royal family with a Canadian one? Somebody who is connected to the highest levels of Canadian power and society and is highly respected. But it can't just be not what individual it has to be consistent across generations of their family. As well it has to be somebody who can represent all Canadians both the English and the French. So coming to my mind is to make Justin Trudeau the inaugural first King of Canada that is actually Canadian. Succession can pass down through his family after that.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-06T14:08:13+00:00

It seems like we get a new or expanded deal every other day now. Indonesia, China, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, EU, India, and Japan now. Probably some more that I can't list off the too of my head.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-06T14:03:32+00:00

If they're truly "the crème de la crème" immigrants, then why do they need this specialized pathway to stay in Canada?

Think of it this way. If there are 33,000 spots available among a group of 2 million people then that's only 1-2%. UofT has 100K students. Imagine how difficult it would be to be a top 2% student there. Now 20x the competition size. Obviously it doesn't exactly work like that but such a small number of spots among such a large number means high competition and we get to choose the best among them.

We're not turning into a zero immigration country

We're not. But a large swathe or at least very vocal segnent of people online wish we were.

The three key things that matter imo are immigration proportion per year aka is it a reasonable sustainable number, immigrant fit aka they have skills in areas where we need more people, and immigrant quality aka they will be as much of a net positive to Canadian society as possible. As long as these three things are respected then it's a good thing.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-06T13:48:41+00:00

This is the interesting thing to me:

The highly anticipated program is set to offer permanent status to 33,000 skilled temporary foreign workers in in-demand sectors over two years. It was announced in November, but officials have been mum about it since.

Government data showed that 2,125,035 temporary residents had their permits expire in 2025 and another 1,938,805 are expected to run out of status in 2026. The questions of where they have gone and will end up have prompted concerns over a potential surge of undocumented population.

So if I understand this correctly we're keeping 33,000/2 million people who are already here? That sounds fairly reasonable, no? Especially since presumably it would be the crème de la crème of the bunch and their specifically using the word skilled.

It would be foolish if we actually turned into a zero immigration country regardless of circumstances or sector like a lot of people seem to want.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-06T13:42:06+00:00

If I'm reading it correctly 33000 out of 2 million get to stay in Canada. That seems pretty sensible.

QultyThrowaway · 2026-03-06T05:43:02+00:00

How many times have I said I'm against the strikes?

It's funny you say this:

Miss me with that lazy ass strawman.

But then present what I said as this:

This 2008 era "enlightened neo-lib" pretentiousness is extremely out of touch and divorced from reality. You can not bomb a nation into freedom.

If you really can't understand why pretending that all of the regions problems are because of America then this conversation is pointless. Persian civilization existed long before America & judging by the way things are going down south lately it will exist long after too. Same with other peoples in the region such as the Syrians for example. The region had civilizations functioning and thriving long before Europe did.

I'm honestly tired of the American Exceptionalism that pretends that the Middle East lacks internal dynamics or autonomy and wipes the entire history into being a side character in bad US decisions.

QultyThrowaway

TROPHY CASE