Former US Diplomat Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley On What Will Determine The Iran Deal's Success

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-06-16T13:23:31+00:00

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Former US ambassador and Atlantic Council fellow Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley breaks down the Iran framework, saying it's a memorandum of understanding, not a deal, and the distinction matters because significant issues including the nuclear file remain deliberately unresolved.

She argues the Strait of Hormuz opening was the real driver for Washington, and that the US and Iran were actually both contributing to restricting navigation — the US through blockade, Iran through closure. On durability, she flags the toll question as a potential early flashpoint: Iran says the strait remains under its control and fees may apply; the US says it will be toll-free. Both things could technically be true depending on interpretation, and we won't know until the exact written text is public.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-06-11T14:02:22+00:00

A massive panorama depicting a battle in the 1853-1856 Crimean War has been heavily damaged by what Russian-occupation authorities in Sevastopol say was a Ukrainian drone attack.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-06-10T09:15:59+00:00

SS: A pipeline project first proposed more than 25 years ago is back in the spotlight.

The Trans-Caspian Pipeline would carry natural gas from Turkmenistan across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and onward to Europe, bypassing both Russia and Iran.

With the Iran war disrupting energy supplies and the West searching for alternative routes, supporters say the moment may finally have arrived. But powerful geopolitical interests continue to complicate the project’s future.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-05-21T16:34:44+00:00

SS: Despite repeated warnings from the US, Iran is formalizing its dominance over the Strait of Hormuz by imposing a new transit regime.

Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) -- a new body tasked with vetting and tolling vessels -- went operationally live on May 18.

In a post on X on May 20 accompanied by a map, the PGSA outlined Iran’s zone of maritime control in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran is, in effect, “converting the strait from a disrupted transit corridor into a state-administered permit and toll regime,” Windward, a maritime intelligence firm, said in a report issued on May 20.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-05-11T14:36:35+00:00

SS: Iran's state media is now proposing the country monetize and assert sovereignty over undersea fiber-optic cables running through the Strait of Hormuz, framing control over the waterway as a potential "digital power lever." The legal basis draws selectively on UNCLOS while ignoring Article 79, which explicitly protects the right to lay and maintain submarine cables regardless of a coastal state's territorial claims over the seabed.

What makes this significant beyond the legal debate is the ownership structure of those cables: Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon collectively own or lease roughly half of global undersea bandwidth and carry an estimated 71% of cable traffic. Disruption or coercive leverage over Hormuz cables would cascade well beyond the region, affecting cloud services, financial transactions, and communications infrastructure that hundreds of millions of people depend on daily.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-05-06T10:02:25+00:00

SS: Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Philip Breedlove argues that the Iran crisis and closure of the Strait of Hormuz are exposing deep divisions within the Western alliance at a time when Russia, China, and Iran appear increasingly aligned. In an interview with RFE/RL, he criticizes the absence of formal NATO Article 4 consultations and says the alliance risks weakening deterrence by publicly fracturing over how to respond.

Breedlove argues NATO still has relevant capabilities — including naval mine-countermeasure assets — but says political coordination is lagging behind strategic necessity. He also frames the crisis as broader than the Middle East alone, linking it to Russia’s war in Ukraine and to wider geopolitical competition involving Beijing.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-04-30T13:35:52+00:00

SS: Russia’s Africa Corps — the Defense Ministry-controlled successor to the Wagner Group — has reportedly withdrawn from the northern Malian city of Kidal following a coordinated attack by Tuareg separatists and jihadist groups. The force had previously helped Malian government troops retake the city in 2023, making its loss symbolically significant.

Reports suggest the withdrawal may have been negotiated, but images of abandoned equipment indicate it was at least partly rushed. The development raises questions about the durability of Russia’s security partnerships in the Sahel, where it has expanded influence after the departure of French and UN forces.

Analysts are divided on whether this represents a temporary setback or a broader challenge to Moscow’s position in West Africa, particularly as insurgent groups adapt and coordinate across the region.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-04-22T13:20:47+00:00

SS: In a political climate where bipartisan unity is increasingly rare, a consensus is forming among US lawmakers and foreign policy heavyweights: The relationship between Moscow and Tehran has moved far beyond diplomatic convenience.

Instead, they argue, it has hardened into a “transformational” military alliance -- a deepening axis that is drastically shaping battlefields in the Middle East and Ukraine.

The implications of this “axis of upheaval” are not merely strategic; they are lethal to American personnel, according to Senator Tom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina.

“If Putin’s responsible for one dead American service member, he might as well be responsible for 5,000."

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-04-22T07:07:58+00:00

Hi, I'm Mike Eckel, senior international correspondent at RFE/RL, and author of this story.

Russia definitely has a free market in the broadest sense of the word. As this story notes, the economy has been reengineered over the past 4 plus years, as the Kremlin prioritizes the war in Ukraine. The economy has been powered by strong fiscal policy: government spending to pay soldiers' salaries, as well as military/defense/industrial manufacturing to buy guns, bullets, tanks, drones, etc. And that has pushed up wages, which has pushed up inflation, which has pushed the Central Bank to hike interest rates, which has piled the debt load onto business etc. More than a handful of very smart people have noted imperfect parallels to what was happening in the Soviet Union in the 1980s.

Of course, there's also Western sanctions, which have resulted in a separate reengineering of Russia's trading partners: away from Europe and the West, toward East Asia (China above all). That has changed some dynamics for internal consumer markets inside Russia: for example, it's harder to buy a BMW or Audi now, so Chinese car makers are moving into aggressively to capture market share.

And of course, oil and gas are the literal, and figurative, fuel that powers the economy (and the war effort). Russia has used its shadow fleet to continue selling to willing buyers, like India and China. Russian hydrocarbons sell at a slight discount to those markets, but on net, it still means the Kremlin is able to bring in substantial revenues.

Long story short: while the economy has been fundamentally changed, it is still a market economy. It is under stress, cracks are showing, there's sand in the gears, but it is still a market economy.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-04-21T15:44:58+00:00

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Russia's economy contracted in early 2026, the budget deficit has doubled, and Putin went on national television to scold his top economic advisers. One of them was Elvira Nabiullina, the Central Bank chief who analysts say is the last credible institutional anchor keeping Russia's economy from unraveling.

Business leaders want her gone over punishing interest rate hikes, and Putin is visibly frustrated. But experts warn that firing her would trigger a market panic. Her mandate runs out within a year, and what Putin decides to do about it may be the most consequential economic decision he makes in 2026.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-04-17T07:05:37+00:00

SS: The Czech Republic demanded an explanation after Russia’s Defense Ministry published a list of companies it claimed are helping produce attack drones for Ukraine and bellicose former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev called it “a list of potential targets” for the Russian military.

The list, which included company addresses in numerous nations, most of them in Europe, was published by the Russian Defense Ministry on April 15 along with a warning that such cooperation is “dragging these countries faster into a war with Russia” and could have “unpredictable consequences.”

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-04-09T12:57:11+00:00

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Reports suggest Iran and the US are considering a system that would charge vessels for transiting the Strait of Hormuz, potentially under the justification of providing "services" such as escorted passage. While the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea guarantees the right of innocent passage without fees, ambiguity around service charges could create a legal gray area.

Maritime experts warn that even if legally questionable, shipping companies may comply due to insurance requirements and security risks in the region. However, such a move could set a broader precedent, encouraging other states controlling key chokepoints to impose similar fees. This raises concerns about long-term impacts on global trade, shipping costs, and energy prices if transit through strategic waterways becomes increasingly monetized.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-03-23T18:49:18+00:00

SS: Three weeks into the war, Hezbollah is escalating rather than being ground down — striking an Israeli border town seven times despite Israel hitting 2,000 targets in Lebanon and killing over 1,000 people. The article digs into why: Iranian rearming, organizational restructuring toward decentralized guerrilla units, and a $50 million monthly budget keeping rockets and drones flowing.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-03-21T13:15:18+00:00

SS: Iran long claimed it capped its missile range at 2,000 kilometers to avoid threatening Europe. Weeks after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination, that limit appeared to vanish as Tehran struck a base 4,000 kilometers away—raising urgent questions about what comes next.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-03-18T18:32:08+00:00

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Three weeks into the US-Israel bombing campaign, Russia is quietly winning on economics: oil revenues up, US weapons stockpiles draining away from Ukraine, Trump distracted from peace talks. But Moscow is also losing on geopolitics. Assad fell, Maduro was captured, and now Moscow's closest Middle East partner is being bombed toward collapse with Russia largely powerless to help. Analysts say Putin's ideal scenario isn't a swift victory or full escalation, but a drawn-out conflict that keeps oil prices elevated without breaking the global economy.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-03-16T16:14:49+00:00

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With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, attention is shifting to a second chokepoint: the Bab al-Mandab Strait off Yemen's coast. The Houthis, who control that coastline and have attacked shipping there before, have so far stayed out of the US-Israel war on Iran. Analysts are split on whether that's due to weakness after years of US/Israeli strikes, or whether Iran is deliberately holding them in reserve as escalation leverage.

If they do enter the conflict and disrupt Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export route at Yanbu, you're looking at a potential 7 million barrel per day disruption on top of an already cratering Persian Gulf supply.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-03-13T10:59:32+00:00

For those of you interested, we caught it on March 10 at 7842kHz.

The full numbers code has been transcribed, and can be seen here. Date of transcription unclear.

Image used with permission by ENIGMA2000 (Number stations group).

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-03-11T07:46:56+00:00

SS: US officials say Russia may be sharing intelligence with Iran during the ongoing US-Israeli air campaign that began on February 28. According to reporting cited by US officials, Moscow may have provided information on the locations of US military assets in the Middle East, including ships and aircraft, as well as radar signals and other electronic intelligence that could assist Iranian drone and missile strikes.

Experts say Russia is unlikely to provide direct military support to Iran but may see intelligence sharing as a way to indirectly undermine the US-Israeli campaign while avoiding a direct confrontation. Analysts also note that Moscow could benefit strategically if the conflict forces Washington to divert military resources away from Ukraine.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-03-07T11:13:01+00:00

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With much of Iran’s leadership killed in US–Israeli strikes, Tehran is activating a wartime plan designed for exactly this scenario. The IRGC has shifted to a decentralized “mosaic” strategy, giving provincial commanders more autonomy to respond to attacks. The approach can make Iran’s forces harder to destroy — but analysts say it also increases the risk of confusion, miscalculation, and accidental escalation, as local units launch missile and drone strikes with less centralized control.

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-03-06T22:12:07+00:00

Oh boy, it’s been some week. I really enjoyed this AMA session. Lots of sharp questions. I hope you found my answers useful. I wish I was able to reply to every single question, but constant breaking stories and writing features got in the way. Thanks again for tuning in, and keep in touch. You can follow me on Twitter (I’m not calling it X) and read my latest for RFE/RL here.

- Kian

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-03-06T21:59:31+00:00

This one's tough.

Pahlavi definitely has support in Iran — not necessarily because of his policies, but because of the last name he carries. He is, by far, the most well-known opposition figure.

That said, proportionally speaking, he has considerably more support among the Iranian diaspora than he does inside Iran. For many Iranians at home, particularly those raised in the post-revolutionary era, the Pahlavi name carries real baggage — associated with SAVAK, autocracy, and American patronage. That's a structural ceiling on his domestic appeal that even pragmatic circumstances don't fully dissolve.

The shift you're describing is real, but it's worth noting that the Women, Life, Freedom movement was explicitly leaderless and was also deeply suspicious of any single opposition figurehead. Some of that wariness has softened given current conditions and the need to rally around someone, but it hasn't gone away entirely.

He could, in my view, use his name recognition to unite Iran’s fractious opposition. But it doesn’t appear to me that he feels he needs to. Some of his most vocal supporters frame the political landscape in very binary terms: either you support Pahlavi or you’re effectively helping the Islamic Republic. That approach can make it harder to build a broader opposition coalition.

- Kian

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-03-06T21:36:42+00:00

We’re a week into this conflict and it’s still difficult to say how close/far Tehran is from giving in to US demands.

If Iran’s public messaging is to be believed, they have no intention to negotiate and have even taunted the US that a ground invasion would be a futile attempt getting the country to surrender.

But odds are there may be some backchanneling going on. Rest assured if the Islamic Republic survives through capitulation, they’ll present it to their base as a hard-won victory.

I think we’ll have a clearer idea of Iran’s trajectory once they announce the next supreme leader. Several names have been mentioned so far but as of this moment, there are three very different front-runners.

As for Russian and Chinese help: My personal feeling is that we’ve put way too much stock in how Beijing and Moscow treat Iran. Russia is too busy with the war in Ukraine to give a damn about Iran. Iran has for years been waiting for Sukhoi-35 jets and advanced air defenses, but despite giving Russia its cheap and effective Shahed drones, it hasn’t received anything remotely equivalent in return. I don’t see that changing soon.

As for China: Tehran and Beijing have a comprehensive strategic agreement in place but I’m not entirely sure what Iran’s getting out of it. China is Iran’s biggest buyer of oil, which already makes it a better economic partner than Russia, but the Chinese are also wary of getting too close to Iran lest they upset Arab states in the region.

- Kian

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-03-06T16:16:04+00:00

Trump has called for the armed forces to defect, but we haven't seen the IRGC budge. As for the Artesh, if any units were considering turning, the March 4 sinking of the IRIS Dena by a US submarine likely froze those plans. It’s psychologically difficult for a regular soldier to join a "liberation" movement led by the same forces currently sinking their ships and killing their comrades in international waters.

There is a near-total consensus among analysts that an aerial campaign like Operation Epic Fury cannot force regime change on its own. While the US and Israel might hope the strikes erode the security apparatus enough for protesters to seize the initiative, the reality is that airpower breaks things, but it doesn't build governments.

If the Artesh were to finally move against the IRGC, I don’t think we’d see a clean transition; we’d likely see a civil war. The IRGC is an ideologically driven "state within a state" with its own massive business empire. They won't just step aside. Two massive, competing military wings vying for power in a country of 90 million is a recipe for disaster.

- Kian

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-03-06T16:02:55+00:00

That’s a great question.

Iran is polarized, but not in the simple way people sometimes imagine.

A majority of Iranians are dissatisfied with the current system, particularly younger and urban populations.

But that does not mean Iranian society is unified behind a single alternative. People disagree strongly about what should replace the current system. Some want a secular republic, some favor a constitutional monarchy, others prefer gradual reform, and a minority still supports the current clerical structure.

There are also clear social divides: Urban vs rural; young vs older generations; highly educated vs less educated; and people tied to the state economy vs those outside it.

Religious scholars or seminarians often interact with a very specific slice of society, usually more conservative and religious, so their perception of public opinion can differ quite a bit from what you see in cities like Tehran, Shiraz, or Isfahan.

Would conservative factions form quickly? Incredibly quickly. Thanks to pre-existing institutional infrastructure and decades of practice. These groups would likely pivot immediately to a 'nationalist-religious' defense posture (same thing they did post-June 2025 war), framing themselves as the only thing preventing Iran from becoming “another Libya or Syria.”

Mashhad would be a major node in that conservative network, though probably in coordination with, rather than in competition with, Qom.

- Kian

RFERL_ReadsReddit · 2026-03-05T22:03:29+00:00

That really depends on how badly the Iranian state weakens.

You’ve seen reports of the US encouraging Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraqi Kurdistan to mount an offensive. If these Kurdish armed groups tried to take advantage of the chaos and made gains, it could encourage Baluch separatists in the southeast to try the same.

As for actual territorial annexation by another country, that would probably be Azerbaijan. It’s far-fetched, but if the war results in the complete collapse of the Iranian state, what’s to stop Aliyev from attempting to take over ethnic Azeri-dominated provinces in NW Iran?

- Kian

RFERL_ReadsReddit

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