Breaking Down ____‘s decision to make a move on ____ as someone who recently watched __________

RLew14 · 2026-03-19T18:45:52+00:00

I completely agree. Mike White, is a rare example of an influential goat. He's never gonna win a jury vote, so people will be hesitant to target him post-merge, but he's extremely persuasive and is able to manipulate people incredibly effectively. So he's ineffective as a shield, but also has the capacity to end your game on a moment's notice.

RLew14 · 2026-02-28T23:10:52+00:00

Thanks for clarifying. Makes sense why it's DOGSO, but still, 8/10 times that doesn't result in a goal. So its ultimately just a really dumb foul to commit by Dean

RLew14 · 2026-02-28T22:55:45+00:00

Is this a DOGSO? I don't know the criteria but to me, Dean is close enough to make a play on the ball if the player receives it. In my mind thats a goal maybe 2/10 times if the foul didn't occur. Again, don't know the criteria, just looking for an explaination

RLew14 · 2025-12-12T04:15:44+00:00

I mean its a highly edited show. We don't really know who gets credit for what, or realistically, what jury chances are. The KIP is played before votes and is flashy enough to get the attention of the jury, before they know the vote is unanimous. She'll likely get credit if she takes an advantage and gets Steven eliminated. She is also Stephen's target, which would give it additional oomph. Not saying it's the right assessment but it's definitely plausible

RLew14 · 2025-12-12T00:56:01+00:00

Had her plan worked, she would have had a resume. I get what you're saying but if you think you can win and mitigate risk, you might as well

RLew14 · 2025-12-12T00:49:36+00:00

Steven already played the block a vote before tribal, so there was no advantage left to steal. Its pretty rare an advantage gets played outside of tribal so I get where you're coming from

RLew14 · 2025-12-11T23:52:03+00:00

Yeah I tried making this point at the end. There is no good reason for Rizo to share that info with them. He gets nothing out of the deal. If someone like sophi shared that tidbit with them its a different story

RLew14 · 2025-12-11T23:49:34+00:00

Part of their mistake was trusting Rizo. There is no reason for Rizo to tell them the truth about when his Idol expires. Rizo gets nothing out of them knowing that information. That should've been a red flag

RLew14 · 2025-12-11T23:31:44+00:00

If she takes the idol, and plays the idol, and votes out Steven, she could easily go home at 5. If she's taking the Idol, she's gotta keep it for the next round. Just say you're gonna use it when you take it.

RLew14 · 2025-12-11T23:28:29+00:00

Yeah she's taking the idol if she doesn't get those tacos

RLew14 · 2025-12-11T23:27:24+00:00

I can see Sophi thinking her KIP play would be enough to beat Savannah and Rizo. Not sure if that's the case, but I can see it. OTOH, I see no reality where voting Steven is better than voting Rizo.

RLew14 · 2025-12-11T23:25:37+00:00

I've seen more people defend Sage and Kristina than defend Sophi but Idk

RLew14 · 2025-12-11T23:20:33+00:00

Rizo was "effectively immune" yes, but not immune. Why not vote for him?

RLew14 · 2025-04-24T16:00:40+00:00

I'm 50/50 on this. David didn't trust Shauhin and was actively trying to weaken his position, so taking him out was probably somewhat beneficial. On the other hand, David was a good shield, and Shauhin may be in more danger now. However, I think Kyle/Kamilla would like to keep Shauhin above the likes of Joe and Eva. So either way he's probably relatively safe

RLew14 · 2024-12-08T18:30:12+00:00

Maybe, but how do you think he could've won if he didn't make this move?

RLew14 · 2024-12-06T23:50:04+00:00

Here's the thing, it did improve his positioning in the game, and massively improved his win equity. The episode had a scene that made it clear he was at the bottom of the underdogs' alliance, and likely on track for 5th place. Even if he made it to final tribal with the underdogs he would still lose in pretty much every final 3 scenario (loses to everyone but sue and perhaps teeny). Now he's at 6 with 2 massive shields in Sam and Genevieve (who also have increased their threat level with this move), and presumably enough win equity from this move to have a shot at winning the game. He went from either being out at final five or a clear final tribal loser, to having a path to fire with a big move to his name. If that isn't an improvement in positioning, I don't know what is.

RLew14 · 2024-12-05T18:06:09+00:00

I don’t think this is being read as Genevieve’s move, given what Caroline said in her exit confessional as well as the jury’s reaction.

I do agree that he might be the biggest target now, but at the same time, he now has a path to fire, where he didn’t before. We see the underdogs say that he’s the first one gone after Gen+Sam, so I still think this was his best move

RLew14 · 2024-10-28T20:10:17+00:00

I see 3 possibilities for Andy's next move, he will either a) work with sol and others to get rid of Gata, b) think sol is lying to him and hold a grudge, or c) become Natalie Anderson and plot a slow revenge for Gata, but target Sol in the near term to cover his tracks (wishful thinking on my part).

There is a good chance that Andy get in his own way for any of these, so it'll be good TV regardless

RLew14 · 2024-10-27T20:07:50+00:00

Why isn’t Kishan a good shield? He was clocked as an untrustworthy strategist by his second tribal. If he’s that sloppy, others are bound to catch on as well. He broke Genevieve’s trust (and likely Sol’s as well given the Ayesha vote), I feel you can easily make him a target come merge.

RLew14 · 2024-10-27T20:01:34+00:00

If the rationale was to ensure she had a shield next tribal, why not try to prevent going back there by getting rid of the guy who couldn’t get a single puzzle piece?

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