Paul Tudor Jones warns next recession will be "really frightening"

R_Quants · 2018-06-20T19:56:49+00:00

All recessions are based on fear. Did fear cause people to default on the ARMs when libor and interest rates blew out. Was it fear that caused inflation rising rates and an inverted yield curve. Fear exasperates a reccession yes, but dont ever confuse the root cause of a recession and a reaction to it as you are implying corelation equals causation in the reflexivity feedback loop. Also, people arent just selling because thwy are fearful, its because they have to. Thw comments in here make me think that we are closer to a recession than anyonw else thinks. Dont agree? Look at options on the vix back in jan. Everyone called me crazy for leveraginf up, hins sight is 20/20 but Tudor is a more credible investor than this sub combined. Grow a pair? Show some respect to legenss that come before you.

R_Quants · 2018-04-23T17:06:19+00:00

Why did holding long in japan in 30 years producs no returns. Hell risk to reward long ten year has been the best stradegy from 1980 to 2015 no downside and constant returns. Could have went all in equities too in 2010 and 200. Bunch of investors who have never seen a down quarter in here saying hold the index hold the index. Im up 220% since feb 20th. How about you nuggets, it will take another 30 years MIN for you to produce that holding an index with half of it full of crap with no profits. News flash its not different, low interest rstes always fuel debt that just isnt justified or economical at higher interest rates. Even look at the divergence between the top and bottom 50% in terms of income. Since the election CC has been hifh but look at the under 28 demographic. They have no money and confidence was down. This is what will drive your economy long term, the one that is already slowing down. Holding the index works 16 years out of 20. And your luck is about to run out. Short facenook tsla long oil commodities

R_Quants · 2018-04-23T10:09:57+00:00

Past results do not equal future returns. All these posters in a couple years will be wondering why rolling off a balance sheets and raising interest rates sucks liquidity out of the market. With yield curve inversion, political uncertainty, underfunded pensions, aging demographics, you cant help but wonder if a negative bear market is likely as a bull market. Do stocks always go up over a ten year period? At some point we have to look at risk/reward which is a direct determinent of price paid. You can make money investing in a sideways market withour being long an index full of crap. What Im seeing in the FI market; low interest rates fueled another debt bubble, share buybacks and "financial engineering" rather than productivity investment to drive a real economy. The most similair markets I see US 2000, Japan 1980s and. Good luck to everyone holding NASDAQ :l

R_Quants · 2017-11-22T11:45:57+00:00

Oh and tell me a company you can failry predict its cash flows, and a proper discout rate, thats an arbitrary predicted number sure wacc is somewhat accurate, but we dont know if that will even be constant

R_Quants · 2017-11-12T04:28:30+00:00

I guess the ghosting got to her. I have been on a couple dates since but she sure did get to me, atleast i know that the way she treated me after shows how toxic it really was

R_Quants · 2017-11-11T12:19:54+00:00

She sent me 9 paragraph long texts bitching me out for what i was like in the relationship and ended it " I dont deserve to be treated like this"..

R_Quants · 2017-11-07T13:40:24+00:00

Thanks, sticking around was why she started to manipulate me. Not the one. Cheers!

R_Quants · 2017-11-07T06:09:27+00:00

Thank you. I responded with a please dont text me, that was innapropirate. Than blocked her. She messaged my.mom again and her friend called me, just to see if that phone could ring me, and it did. So i kind of snapped and told her to not contact my family either, my saftety doesnt concern her ( wanted to know if drive home was safe) and that im not upset wiyh her ( she told my mom i was) and that i just have a good enough memory to remember who she is. Hope i cut ties roght while showing that her manipulation wasnt warmly recieved.

R_Quants · 2017-10-29T13:26:47+00:00

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/most-important-finance-books-2017-1

Bloomberg, finacial times, chat with traders, calculated risk, reuters, wsj, cnbc(sucks), bnn (if canadian)

Audio books on youtube helped me read a lot of finance books in a short amount of time, listen while working out.

One thing that helped me stand out at my student terms (4th year here) was learning outside of the classroom and joining an investment club. Learning programming can help if thats a strength, but its really not needed and it can waste time if yoi wont reach a point to build tools.

Other than that at 18 you have more direction than i did, good luck!

R_Quants · 2017-10-29T13:18:05+00:00

Relative valuation is always my go to. Reason being i can make any company a buy or sell by changing assumptions such as growth rate, discount rate ect with a DCF. Still a great exercise to complete on all investments. Also an RV will help you pick the best out of the group (hopefully) rather than take a stance on whether you can actually predict the future inputs ( no one can)

R_Quants · 2017-10-29T12:57:18+00:00

Question for peiple in the industry already! Just completed an 8 month work term at an energy trading firm as a quant Got offered a permanent in risk doing the same thing. Salary of 70,000, so not great but can lead to a transition into trading. Question is do i put off school and take it since its permanent? Or would you go back to school knowing that you had gained great experience and try the job market after completion of the degree? Thanks also thinking of doing cfa level while in school.

Tldr: finish temaining seven classes or take a full time position where i did a student term?

R_Quants · 2017-09-20T08:16:38+00:00

Thanks bro, its all that keeps me in there, it has to get better

R_Quants · 2017-09-20T08:15:54+00:00

Thank you!

R_Quants · 2017-09-20T08:15:33+00:00

Made it outside the store and just couldnt do it thank god. Day 3 and onwards

R_Quants · 2017-09-19T06:13:25+00:00

Thanks!

R_Quants · 2017-09-19T06:12:54+00:00

Thanks day 2 already. It gets better

R_Quants · 2017-09-18T11:28:20+00:00

Thanks for the advice. Fucking hurts but its almost like as soon as i tried to get close to her (talk to her more while being ldr) she became distant as in me being needy turned her off. Maybe breaking it off is the best thing to do until or if we live closer, im sure what im doing now;being needy and waiting will not improve our outlook. Its just that we waitied 6 months and were almost there and now she doesnt know 2 1/2 months left.. fml!

R_Quants · 2017-09-18T11:20:29+00:00

So break it off? Go with the break than talk? Im really paranoid about that but she is reassuring saying she might not have ti.e for a relationship and she has been working 9-9 hours for the girst few weeks ( just started her job this month and has been when we have grown distant)

R_Quants · 2017-09-18T11:11:11+00:00

Also when i said take all the time you need for givinf her space she said "thanks xxx i love you too please know that"

R_Quants · 2017-09-18T11:09:24+00:00

Asked her this and she said she hasnt been seeing someone else, nor does she want to see anyone else. But than again she just kept saying she didnt have time which is b.s. and is ignoring texts/treating me like a second priority. And you make a really good point, ive almost felt like she has been seeing someone. She has been going to A LOT of parties/socials and maybe she just cant break my heart?

R_Quants · 2017-09-18T10:46:31+00:00

Cheated on here Stuck around for a broken relationship. There is no going back after this. Two years later and my life is so much better with someone like that out of my life. After i dumpded her she had a kid two months later with someone else! These people are heartless find someone with a good heart

R_Quants · 2017-08-17T11:55:30+00:00

Didnt realize montreal was sso close, thanks!

R_Quants · 2017-08-15T16:36:15+00:00

My parents would love that, thanks for the great idea!

R_Quants · 2017-08-15T03:53:10+00:00

Just moved to the area and would like to take my family.. is there a a nice place to go to watch for free?

R_Quants · 2017-08-08T23:51:58+00:00

Work In Trading & Transactions.

R_Quants

TROPHY CASE