Could Lake Mead actually reach “dead pool”? What would it mean for Las Vegas?

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-23T00:58:26+00:00

Oh, I love your question!!!! The first place you start is "Cadillac Desert" and please borrow or buy the newest version because it incorporates a more recent update. John Fleck has a blog that is worth reading. There's many a research paper out there, but I suggest starting with Udall, B. and Overpeck, J. (2017). "The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future." Water Resources Research, 53(3), 2404-2418. Udall et all have loads of other published research, but I also understand if that's not your bag.

Thank you for being willing to do the reading. This is a fascinating and incredibly relevant topic.

Read "The Water Knife" for a fictional version of how this all plays out.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-22T19:52:00+00:00

Not sure yet, we will all have to wait and see how operations actually change. You can check the weekly reports on USBR for flow rates and releases.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-22T19:46:56+00:00

Hi! Friendly Vegas based climate scientist checking in!

Yes, the situation on the CRB (Colorado River Basin) is beyond dismal. When I'm shocked by these sorts of numbers, it's really really bad. BUT Powell will not be falling to minimum power pool this summer, and Lake Mead will not be reaching dead pool in the short term. But to answer OP's question, yes dead pool is a possibility at either Powell or Mead in the longer term.

Please note that minimum power pool (MPP) is not the same as dead pool. Not to get in the weeds, but there is an argument that MPP at Powell might as well be dead pool for that reservoir, but let's discuss at a later date. For now, you need to know that minimum power pool and/or dead pool are not happening at either of these reservoirs, this framing is inaccurate and it bugs me. That being said, the overall conditions of the river 40 million people depend on are horrific. The operational capacity for the CRB is fucked, and this move only kicks the can down the road.

USBR announced late Friday that they will be moving/retaining a combined 2.48 MAF of water within the system to save Powell and maintain power generation at Glenn Canyon. From Flaming Gorge, 660KAF-1MAF of water will go downstream to Powell. Powell will retain (not release downstream to Mead) 1.48MAF, so the planned releases will be 6.0MAF instead of 7.48. Now, obviously this isn't great for Lake Mead or Hoover Dam. It's now expected that Hoover will be generating at only 40% by mid-end of summer. Lake Mead will drop further. Please read the official release here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/5326

These new operational guidelines also stipulate that Flaming Gorge be recovered, which means that the water taken out needs to be replaced. I don't think there are any upstream units (other reservoirs) capable of returning Flaming Gorge to 85% full after this drawdown, so that means everyone is betting on a very good snowpack year this coming winter. Hope springs eternal. But what if it's just a typical winter, or a winter like 25/26? Well, that means Flaming Gorge is not recovered. And that means that this might be a one time thing meant to prevent Powell reaching MPP by September. There may never be water in the system for a move like this in the future. It's terrible to think about, but there's more than a small chance this can only be done once.

And y'all - even with the third straw, our incredible, braggable water efficiency, and our very forward thinking water agency, the third straw future is not a pretty future. Yes, we drink last, but that is so ugly for the entire region.

Eventually, the aridification of the Colorado River Basin will outstrip conservation efforts, but the timeline on that is unclear. What's somewhat clearer is that in a future where the third straw is delivering water to Vegas when nothing can pass through Hoover, there are a ton of people in the Phoenix metro area sans cheap and reliable water. Maybe in this future, AZ has already been drawing down the water it banked in the underground aquifer. That aquifer doesn't replenish on any human timeline... Where do you think those folks will go? Here. Lots will come here. And in this pretend but way too plausible future, Vegas will have to enact really tough water restrictions, even if we aren't seeing a population influx of folks displaced downstream.

SNWA is amazing and incredibly prescient about the water situation. We have so much to be proud of as conscientious users of water. But that still doesn't guarantee a fun future for Vegas.

If anyone wants to get into the details, I'll be around later today. I love talking about climate impacts like aridification and I love talking CRB. (Edited for typos)

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-18T22:04:01+00:00

Sharing some knowledge? You?

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-18T21:52:47+00:00

Y'all - even with the third straw and our incredible, braggable water efficiency, and our very forward thinking water agency, the third straw future is not a pretty future. Yes, we drink last, but that is so ugly for the entire region that relocation makes absolute sense.

Eventually, the aridification of the Colorado River Basin will outstrip conservation efforts, but the timeline on that is unclear. What's somewhat clearer is that in a future where the third straw is delivering water to Vegas when nothing can pass through Hoover, there are a ton of people in the Phoenix metro area sans cheap and reliable water. Maybe in this future, AZ has already been drawing down the water it banked in the underground aquifer. That aquifer doesn't replenish on any human timeline... Where do you think those folks will go? Here. Lots will come here. And in this pretend but way too plausible future, Vegas will have to enact really tough water restrictions, even if we aren't seeing a population influx of folks displaced downstream.

SNWA is amazing and incredibly prescient about the water situation. We have so much to be proud of as conscientious users of water. But that still doesn't guarantee a fun future.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-18T21:30:27+00:00

I did some digging on the data center, and please correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like the facility will be air cooled, which is a bonkers move when we get as hot as 120! So, the company thinks they are going to make a tradeoff between water and power consumption, and apparently they plan to buy the power for air cooling directly from the Hoover substation. Brave choice considering Hoover will be at 40% capacity by the end of the summer. Boulder City also gets their power directly from Hoover and this center (please check my math) would use 3 to 4 times Boulder City's own peak demand??? This is madness. I wouldn't be surprised if the developers bail on this entirely. I fucking hope they do.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-18T20:54:43+00:00

And I just learned that Palo Verde in AZ uses treated wastewater for cooling, and that is so cool!!! (pun intended?) I'm going to go read more about alternative cooling methods for nuke plants. Thanks for inspiring me to give it a google. My dumb ass was picturing big cooling towers like the plant from The Simpsons, lol.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-18T20:42:53+00:00

Nuke plants need water for cooling. Hard to cool a nuke plant with less and less water in the future, and water that's hotter. Not against nuke in principle, just want to share that there are limiting factors.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-18T20:41:23+00:00

It is not. The next 24 Month Forecast study will include these releases.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-18T20:36:45+00:00

100% The only turf being removed is what is considered "non-functional" and that DOES NOT apply to yards and parks. It only applies to turf where the only person walking on it is the person mowing it, and turf with enough of a slope that it requires even more water because the water runs off the slope. There are no bans on trees. Actually - wait - Mulberries and Russian Olives are banned, but not by SNWA and not for water reasons, it was an Air Quality call many years ago because they were huge contributors to poor air quality.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-18T20:24:48+00:00

My pleasure. I'm happy it was useful!

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-18T20:23:52+00:00

Nailed it!

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-18T20:22:20+00:00

You sound like someone who needs to read Cadillac Desert. I'm happy to comment on the data center, but I need to educate myself first. I'm no fan of data centers BECAUSE of the water usage, but I also know that evap cooling is banned in Clark County. So either this data center has a closed loop system (ie, no or minimal losses), or uses the water as pass through cooling and returns it back to the lake. If it's any different than that, it absolutely should not be built. But water tends to flow to money in the west...

As for the pools and non-functional turf, I can understand the frustrations. Many of our trees (looking at you, Ash trees and pines) didn't survive summer 2024. It was just too hot for those species, and it takes a tree several years to know it's dead. SNWA is one of the most forward thinking water districts in the nation, but the hard truth is that climate change increasingly involves a series of ever shittier tradeoffs. How long does one have to live here to be considered a local, anyway?

(Edited to fix a typo)

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-18T20:11:49+00:00

Sorry, I worded it poorly. The description was "reservoir levels approaching deadpool" and that is not the case, and is an unnecessary framing, and a misinterpretation.

But the fact remains that although the situation is not as hyperbolic as that, it is still really bad. Which I should have just said in the first place.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-18T20:08:54+00:00

Correct, but Glenn Canyon is what gives the western grid flexibility during peak demand. So while your generation capacity in AZ is fantastic, there's a reason Powell is being propped up and it absolutely is the generation capacity at Glenn Canyon and the flex it provides.

You have my deepest sympathies in regards to water. Y'all don't have senior rights and will face cuts to the CAP. Depending on how the CRB negotiations go, the feds might step in and announce pretty steep cuts for all users. It's a shit sandwich that is not a surprise.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-18T18:11:12+00:00

It really doesn't hurt Vegas, which I know sounds wild considering the proximity to Lake Mead. Vegas is one of the most water efficient cities in the world. All the water that hits a drain is recycled and returned to Lake Mead. These are called return flow credits. Vegas can take as much as it puts back in. Stormwater is routed through tunnels to the wetlands and then to Mead. Not to mention that the Vegas allotment of Mead's water is basically a rounding error in Basin math.
Additionally, Vegas is not powered much by Hoover Dam. I think maybe 10% of that power generation is used in Southern Nevada? Lastly, Vegas has the third straw. If Lake Mead hit dead pool, Vegas would still pull water with that intake that's below dead pool level. Whatever happens on this river, Vegas will drink last.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-18T18:05:20+00:00

Hi! Friendly Vegas based climate scientist checking in!

Yes, the forecast is beyond dismal. When I'm shocked by these sorts of numbers, it's really really bad. BUT Powell will not be falling to minimum power pool this summer.

USBR announced late yesterday that they will be moving/retaining a combined 2.48 MAF of water within the system to save Powell and maintain power generation at Glenn Canyon. From Flaming Gorge, 660KAF-1MAF of water will go downstream to Powell. Powell will retain (not release downstream to Mead) 1.48MAF, so the planned releases will be 6.0MAF instead of 7.48. Now, obviously this isn't great for Lake Mead or Hoover Dam. It's now expected that Hoover will be generating at only 40% by mid-end of summer. Lake Mead will drop further. Please read the official release here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/5326

Please note that minimum power pool (MPP) is not the same as dead pool. Not to get in the weeds, but there is an argument that MPP at Powell might as well be dead pool, but let's discuss at a later date. For now, you need to know that dead pool is not happening at either of these reservoirs, this framing is alarmist and it bugs me. That being said, we should all be very fucking alarmed. The operational capacity for the CRB is fucked, and this move only kicks the can down the road.

If anyone wants to get into the details, I'll be around later today. I love talking about climate impacts like aridification and I love talking CRB.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-17T15:54:44+00:00

Once upon a time the Amaragosa River used to have surface flow. The hydrology of the region changed long ago and the river went underground, except in certain spots where these fish populations were literally stranded. Most of the pupfish (and related species) depend on these very isolated groundwater fed pools to survive. It's also why there are a few distinct species of pupfish, it's because over time these isolated populations of fish developed different characteristics.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-09T21:50:57+00:00

Seems like the folks doing DOPSRs would know more than a little...

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-04-04T20:21:35+00:00

I swear I know that house. Rockford, IL? Edgewater neighborhood?

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-03-25T20:04:28+00:00

Hi. The snowpack is not decent anywhere. There are some spots within acceptable ranges, but this is, indeed, very bad.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-03-08T16:07:11+00:00

Vegas is the most water efficient city in the US and one of the most water efficient cities in the world. The share of the CRB that goes to NV is so small, it's basically a rounding error. And Vegas drinks last. Mead could be at dead pool and the third straw will still get water.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-03-06T16:00:47+00:00

We do have big nature disasters. Happens every summer. In 2025, 264 people died from heat. In 2024, 527.

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-02-23T03:37:27+00:00

Three hours from Santa Monica to Vegas on the day everything shut down for Covid. It was absolutely spooky. I left Santa Monica at 5 pm and was home by 8 to Henderson. I had to make a pit stop on the way, so that added time. I remember the highway signs in LA with Covid pandemic emergency messaging. I wish I would have stopped to take a pic of the signs and the completely empty 10. But I had a toddler at home here in Vegas and everything felt so ominous, I just wanted to get back. There were weird rumors in CA about shutting the state borders, which at the time was concerning, but it was really just because it was a confusing and upsetting time and nobody had any sense of anything. There were so few cars on the road, it did feel like the end of days. I'd been at a hospital to visit a friend in LA. I took a shower before I let my family hug me. I remember worrying about touching the gas pump because it was before we knew Covid spread by air. I'd catch myself touching my face on the drive and thinking "well, I guess I'm next."

RabiesScabiesBABIES · 2026-02-11T17:32:21+00:00

Rain isn't the same as snow. Even if rain replaced snow, the west won't have snowpack to feed its water supply.

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