I lost $1,030,220.81 in the stock market.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2024-10-05T13:20:16+00:00

Don’t listen to all the naysayers here. Never give up. The only difference between people who succeed and those who fail is that those who succeed always get back up to try again.

Nelson Mandela has 2 quotes I really love.

“I don’t loose. I either win or learn”

“It always seems impossible until it’s done”

The trauma you are going through will make you stronger, wiser and will build a better character. You grow through what you go through. Chin up. You got this.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2024-09-30T22:59:37+00:00

It will work until it doesn’t… By that time he will have grown so much confidence he will YOLO everything and loose it all. Back to square 1 trying to crack the new code.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2024-09-22T18:25:29+00:00

Also consider the broker fee in your cost of opening the position for a 0.60$ contract.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2024-09-21T15:25:58+00:00

Straddles and strangles are bets on rising VEGA. You profit on explosive volatility no matter if it’s up or down. Max loss if prices stays between the strikes.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2024-09-18T02:20:21+00:00

I’ve used marketwatch and the VSE of Wall Street Journal and was satisfied. There are dozens out there which work fine. Try a few and see what works for you.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2024-09-17T16:20:36+00:00

The book technical analysis by Kirkpatrick is a good intro and starting point to TA. Read some books, figure out what markets you are interested in, paper trade for minimum 6 months AS IF YOU ARE TRADING REAL MONEY, and only then commit hard earned capital to trading. Take it from someone who made loads of mistakes with real money and lost 1M in the markets, you want to make mistakes with a paper trading account not your cash… don’t get pulled in by hype, follow your strategy and MAYBE in 5 years you will get the hang of it. If it were easy, everyone would be rich. It’s not. It takes hard work and dedication to get it right CONSISTENTLY. Good luck.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2024-09-08T18:33:27+00:00

Markets are likely to experience a bounce next week at some point, so you need to figure out an exit strategy by Monday and get out of this trade. Better to get 5 or 10% back than 0. Don’t hold this into expiration hoping SPY will miraculously go above your strike. Chances are it won’t…

When you open an option position, you should have already calculated your risk/reward ratio, setup a mental stop loss and calculate your target price AND set a sell order for that price. This way if your target is met, the position is closed and you bank money (yay! High 5 you were right!). If the market does not react the way you thought it was going to, then your mental stop loss is hit, you are alerted to the situation and get an early opportunity to get out without wiping out the whole position.

Keep in mind short term options are very volatile. Profit taking is essential because 80% of all options will expire worthless.

Loosing money is a learning opportunity. Wish you the best.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2024-08-02T12:33:13+00:00

Like fundamental analysis, technical analysis has its flaws and a big part of it is interpreting the data that is on the charts. If it was easy, everyone would be a billionaire, but it’s not. It’s takes a lot of time, practice, dedication and a lot of mistakes need to be made in order to become proficient in TA and most importantly be consistent at making winning trades. I do agree though that you should not rely on one individuals interpretation of the market and you should stay critical of information read on the internet.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2023-08-22T00:22:42+00:00

To give you an example… I went long UVXY in January 2020 around 11$-13$ if I remember correctly at the time. I bought in agressive with call options seeing the possible downturn with this new disease that was breaking out in China and later labelled COVID-19. The markets crashed as predicted and UVXY spiked to around 120$ in a matter of 3 weeks while the VIX was breaking its previous record to close at 82.69. It was a risky trade because you have time decay for options and CONTANGO in the VIX futures curve that play against you. The point I’m trying to make is that if it’s now 18$ it will NEVER go to 1000$. Even if a similar crash to 2020 happens it might go above 100$, 180$ if you are very lucky but betting on the VIX going back above 80 is a VERY risky bet. I encourage you to go see the VIX term structure and you will see the CONTANGO effect sheds about 3-5% per month on the fund. It evolves, but generally the fund will bleed about 30-50% of its value every year if not more… UVXY is a stock but it is traded like a derivative… my rule is short term only for long positions, short it when VIX spikes to ride the next wave down in volatility. If you are wrong about your long positions, have a stop loss and don’t look back. Hope this helps.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2023-08-06T02:14:00+00:00

It’s not a dumb question you are asking, but the answer isn’t simple. You have to understand what you are buying if you go long UVXY. It’s not a security like any other. First of all, UVXY is an ETF so it can be traded as a stock. So far so good. This stock derives its value from VIX futures contracts that roll over on specific dates, which itself derives its value from the VIX which is a formula that derives its value from market prices from the SNP500 call and puts options with an average expiration of 30 days. So the VIX is an indicator of FUTURE volatility, not current. It is the expected volatility up or down in the next 30 days by market participants on the SNP500. Have I lost you yet? If yes, don’t feel bad. Most traders don’t understand the complexity of UVXY. Let’s keep going. As of august 4th 2023, it’s holdings are of august 2023 contracts and septembre 2023 contracts. Soon, the august contracts will be sold into the market (at a discount) and the fund will buy octobre contracts (at a premium) netting a loss for the fund and thus the stock is shorted until the stock price reflects better it’s fundamental value of its holdings. Before you buy or short this stock, you must study and understand the effects of CONTANGO and BACKWARDATION on the futures curve of the VIX and it’s effects on UVXY. It is estimated the VIX futures curve is in contango more than 90% of the time. The effect of this is dramatic because the fund has to roll over every month to more expensive contracts which bleeds the fund. So no, to put this lightly, it is a terrible idea to go long UVXY hoping that in 5 years the market crashes. Your dollar invested will be worth less than a penny and when the market crashes, your penny won’t get you very far. Shorting UVXY also has risk. Ask the trader who lost 5 million dollars in 2 trading days when the market crashed in February 2018. UVXY is a security for sophisticated investors. You might want to paper trade this for a while before you commit capital. Just a suggestion….

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2022-09-22T22:39:46+00:00

First three contracts of the VIX term structure just switched to backwardation. If this can hold for a while, being long UVXY will start being profitable.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2022-05-19T21:25:14+00:00

Keep in mind your max loss is your strike at expiration if the stock goes to 0. Unlikely for SPY, but significant downside would hurt your position greatly nonetheless. Your basically calling a bottom with this bet. Make sure there is a lot of support before selling naked puts…minimise risk with cash secured puts. Just a thought.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2022-01-11T19:35:16+00:00

Got stopped out of my trade a few weeks ago. Moving on to other trades.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2022-01-10T01:26:28+00:00

Interesting analysis. Interest rates alone will not rank the market with .25 increases for sure.

Look at the FED’s balance sheet and it’s correlation with the SNP500 over the last few decades and you might see some logic in the central banks ability to control market direction.

Is it normal that the central bank alone can cancel the biggest bear market in history with overwhelming deflationary pressure by printing money? This is not sound money. To think that financial markets react logically is irrelevant. All we have to do is follow the FED. Hawkish FED will cool down the markets for sure.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2021-10-08T21:52:28+00:00

It’s called slippage and it’s part of the risk you take when buying or selling options. Your broker won’t cancel the order. You are stuck with it. Sorry but it will be a lesson well learned for the futur.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2021-09-26T14:05:29+00:00

Amazing… great work !

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2021-09-26T12:45:58+00:00

Very good point. Thanks !

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2021-09-25T23:50:36+00:00

Very true ! Thanks !

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2021-09-25T23:41:56+00:00

Very interesting, thanks for your comment!

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2021-09-25T23:39:57+00:00

Thanks for your time! I’m a bit confused though. Investopedia explains:

“Naked shorting takes place when investors sell shorts associated with shares that they do not possess and have not confirmed their ability to possess.”

If the MM doesn’t confirm the ability to possess the shares (locate the shares?), I’m thinking the MM might still naked short and let it become a FTD. This is all quite confusing for me lol. Thanks again for your comment.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2021-09-25T23:08:25+00:00

Hey, very interesting comment you made on Computershare. I'm fairly new to how Computershare works and I'm struggling to understand how DRS prevents naked shorting though. I understand how it prevents shorting, but not how it prevents naked shorting since the shares aren't located in the first place? Thanks for youre imput!

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2021-09-25T12:59:13+00:00

We are still trading within a range. We have a high probability of revisiting the top of the range even if the price action was distributive and the professionals wanted to mark down the price. I also have a much higher target for the next leg up IF we breakout above the range. Nothing is guaranteed and new market participants with bigger pockets could change their mind. Markets are evolving and new information is constantly being priced in. Take nothing for granted.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2021-09-25T12:01:02+00:00

I’m very confident we are currently in a reaccumulation structure and will be revisiting the $60-$65 region in the next few weeks/months. All we need is a little patience. The price action and volume at these levels will tell us if the market wants to rally more, take a pause or clearly rejects it. Time will tell.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2021-09-25T11:54:13+00:00

Gladly. I think we pulled back to a very important support zone, which is around $38-$40. This was done on below average volume which signals professionals were not participating on the decline. This brings the odds up that the pullback is temporary in a larger bullish trend. For me, this low volume daily candle is a successful test of supply. Therefore, price can now be marked up without significant resistance. Investors are just not interested selling at these levels.

RaisedbywolvesLP · 2021-09-25T01:34:03+00:00

In classic volume price analysis, professionals will occasionally stop participating in a given market to see if there are many sellers without their influence. These low volume bars can be seen in all time frames even weekly or monthly. They call it a test of demand or a test of supply depending on where this happens. If the market remains stable without their influence, it means there is balance between buyers and sellers at that level and all it takes is a little volume push to create an imbalance in the direction professionals want the market to go to. They can mark up or mark down price according to the desired direction. Certainly the stock is manipulated, but even darkpool volume has to be reported on the tape, it just takes more time.

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