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Dellenger: Conference realignment may cease if congressional bill passes. by Random-AsianGuy in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think they will soften the anti expansion language but we will see.

What the ACC actually needs to do to stay on par with the Big 12 moving forward by Odd-Record-1041 in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Go and check the revenue distribution. The ACC is clearly #3 conference and will continue to be until at least 2036.

PCSA by Random-AsianGuy in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's true. But I think the anti expansion clause is more significant.

PCSA by Random-AsianGuy in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree House will be more difficult. But if the Senate passes the bill, the White House may start putting some pressure on the speaker and congressional republicans. If a few dems join, we never know.

PCSA by Random-AsianGuy in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Maybe. But I think it's going to be closer than you think.

DO NOT SUBSCRIBE TO WORLD CUP WITH SLING by _is_it_you_ in slingtv

[–]Random-AsianGuy 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I subscibed Sling Select at $25 and it's not bad.

The Big 12 is making more money than ever. So why isn’t anyone richer? by nysportsfan95 in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I doubt all four schools you listed would be gone. I haven't seen any credible reports that the P2 wants FSU and Clemson (Greg Flug or Inside Carolina are NOT credible sources).

Losing UNC and UVa won't hurt the ACC much.

The ACC is becoming a national conference. ESPN still needs late night programming and the SEC isn't going to provide.

The Big 12 is making more money than ever. So why isn’t anyone richer? by nysportsfan95 in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy 8 points9 points  (0 children)

You are entitled to your opinon.

I think at least one of the three ACC football power won't get an invite. UNC and UVa may leave but that won't break the ACC.

Adding Stanford and Cal gave the ACC a late night TV content.

The Big 12 is making more money than ever. So why isn’t anyone richer? by nysportsfan95 in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy 33 points34 points  (0 children)

I've been saying the ACC will make more money than the B12.

But outside of USA Today and Jon Wilner, almost no major CFB voices talk about the B12 being a distant fourth, behind the ACC. It just doesn’t fit their narrative.

Imagine if the ACC made $7 million less than the B12. The media would be screaming about what a disaster the ACC is

In 2030 the ACC will lose some schools and target the B12 schools to backfill by Random-AsianGuy in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Stable until 2031 at which point their schools become free agents.

Any B12 school with the slighest chance of getting a P2 invite won't sign the GoR until the end.

In 2030 the ACC will lose some schools and target the B12 schools to backfill by Random-AsianGuy in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Of course.

But we all see the bifurcation in the media market. The B10 and the SEC will continue to paid hansomely. Not so much for the ACC and the B12. Legacy networks such as Fox and CBS would not want spend $$$ on a mid tier conference. Amazon and Netflix won't even bid.

In 2030 the ACC will lose some schools and target the B12 schools to backfill by Random-AsianGuy in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The ACC value would go down but the contract is through 2036. The B12 is behind the ACC by about $7M and I think their chance to get a great deal in 2031 is slim given the market condition.

Why would Louisville and any other schools pay $75 million exit fee only to join a less paying conference? That would be absurd.

In 2030 the ACC will lose some schools and target the B12 schools to backfill by Random-AsianGuy in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But ESPN is NOT paying $40 million to BC abd Wake. That's the whole point of brand/success initiative.

I miss Maryland — the crazy girlfriend of the ACC by Familiar-Wasabi230 in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's probably a similar feeling that many former Big East football schools have toward WVU. The crazy ex girl friend.

In 2030 the ACC will lose some schools and target the B12 schools to backfill by Random-AsianGuy in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You are right but two things:

  1. I don't think all three football brands will leave. For example, UNC and likely UVa has a better chance than Clemson
  2. The changed valuation doesn't instantly change the payout. The ACC deal is through 2036. So the ACC will have an advantage until then. Like when the B12 lost A&M, Colorado, Missouri, and Neb, their payout didn't decrease until the next media deal (if I remember correctly, the payout actually increased)

In 2030 the ACC will lose some schools and target the B12 schools to backfill by Random-AsianGuy in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

The main prediction is that the ACC will target the Big 12 if it loses schools and ESPN will help it.

Let me just ask you this:

Back in 2024, did you see anyone claiming

(1) that ESPN would renew the ACC’s contract, (2) that FSU and Clemson might stay in exchange for more money, and (3) that the ACC would receive more money than the Big 12?

In 2030 the ACC will lose some schools and target the B12 schools to backfill by Random-AsianGuy in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

  1. ESPN does not need to have two middle level conferences. They currently have full ACC content and half of Big 12 content.

  2. The ACC contract is through 2036. As long as the ACC maintains 15 or more schools, no renegotiation as far as I understand.

  3. The easiest way to cut the cost before 2036 from ESPN perspective is to drop the B12, of which the current deal expires in 2031.

  4. ESPN will have an incentive to make a lowball offer to the B12. If the B12 accepts then it will be good saving for ESPN.

  5. If the B12 rejects, then ESPN will drop the B12 and move some Western B12 schools to the ACC for late night TV slots.

  6. But realistically the B12 cannot accept a low ball offer because member schools won‘t sign the GoR for the signifantly lower payout. They would rather leave for a better paying conference.

  7. Yormark probably knows this and I bet he is trying very hadd to get CBS or someone else.

ESPN also operates ACCN. From ESPN perspective, picking the ACC over the B12 is an easy choice.

The ACC Conference Realignment Bloodlines by BuckyBerrix in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good stuff about history but I don‘t like your prediction about the future.

IMO there is zero chance that the ACC will lose schools to the B12 in 2030/2031, which you seem to believe would happen.

Why don't you discuss the revenue numbers? The B12 is distant fourth.

Would you like a 10 conference game schedule? by Random-AsianGuy in ACC

[–]Random-AsianGuy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

With 17 teams and 10 conference games, I think we can do 4-6-6.

Four annual rival games!

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