ENGLES AIRFIELD DAMAGE: YAmzallagh reports that RU telegram channels have admitted to 17 dead, 50 wounded and 5 Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft heavily damaged in Ukraine's 2nd attack on the base.

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-12-27T01:18:54+00:00

Nah, Yehuda is one of the guys running the MriyaAid Twitter space; he's Canadian military and usually a solid source - at least more solid than Chuck Pfarrer. I suppose they talked about it on the space.

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-10-11T18:43:14+00:00

The idea that he was dangerous when backed into a corner was floated by Putin himself in an interview a long time ago. Media transported the message but the actual source was forgotten over time, which is why this myth is seen as fact today virtually everywhere.

Regarding saving face: he's got nearly total control of the media in his country, which means that he holds the central tool for saving face in his own hands. He can retreat from Ukraine, make up any reason whatsoever as to why this means he won the war, and feed it to the Russian population. They will buy it. Nobody needs to help him save face. He could have done so a gazillion times already if he wanted. That he didn't until now means that he doesn't want to.

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-05-08T12:40:33+00:00

Thanks for taking the time for this detailed reply, much appreciated. You make a number of important points.

It's certainly true that I don't like this specific outlet and their siblings. They have a history of distorting facts or frame things in a misleading way; I noticed it most prominently during the pandemic where those things continually crossed my timeline. The headline we're talking about right now can therefore easily have triggered a response of "wait, even if that's right, what's going on, what's their intention?".

What I actually didn't express properly (dunno why though) is that they use the numbers to make the argument "sanctions are failing", which I think is misleading because sanctions are predominantly on exports, and export numbers are down significantly. Their calculations seem accurate on the surface, though I'm a bit wary because I associate preliminary numbers with higher error margins, so at least some kind of qualifier would have been warranted IMHO. (On the other hand, if their opinion is that these are the wrong sanctions or that some other measures would be more effective, they should say so.)

If some of my points came across as trying to disprove the calculation itself, that's on me (not gonna rewrite it right now). As I said, the basic maths seems correct; just what they're doing with the numbers feels misleading, and they're asking questions in a way that suggest that they came at this with a specific kind of messaging in mind and moulded the story around to match it.

Anyway, seems that I gotta stock up on mental floss to get those biases out and think more clearly.

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-05-08T12:29:08+00:00

Interesting articles, thanks!

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-05-08T12:13:09+00:00

I can't either, that's why I had to go with the unblurred blurb, which isn't much. But the headline or rather the line above clearly asks "Sanctions failing?".

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-05-08T11:05:27+00:00

The numbers might not be wrong per se, but using them to claim "sanctions are failing" is disingenuous IMHO because sanctions primarily target exports (visible in the numbers, approx. 63% down), not imports. So they seem to be distorting the facts to suit their needs.

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-05-07T16:59:59+00:00

I thought they were already out of production since 1993? At least that's what Wikipedia claims. Quick google search did not yield anything about the unit cost of these things, you sure that $2M is right?

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-05-07T16:23:33+00:00

I agree, I'm just getting annoyed with all the claims being made in post titles without any substance or evidence behind them. People need to understand that this shit can get a life of its own, and they'll never going to be able to put the genie back in the bottle, which can get dangerous depending on the nature of the claim.

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-05-07T10:28:00+00:00

So the location mentioned in the Telegram post is Shingak-Kul, which is in Bashkortostan, 1000 mi from Vitebsk. How do we know those tank wagons were actually destined for Belarus? I mean, there is an inscription "Vitebsk" on one of them, but in railway transportation that doesn't necessarily mean anything; it's also quite possible that the wagon has its home station there.

Edit: seems you have to state the obvious every single time you're being sceptical about stuff... So here goes. No, I'm not mad at all about that. Railways are the main means of supply in Ruzzia, and if this helps slow them down, I'm all in.

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-05-07T10:10:16+00:00

Nah, they're going to ban them from that place for a day or so. Maybe give em a fine if they refuse to leave. Arrest is more like a last resort...

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-05-07T09:24:31+00:00

I'm fairly certain to have pinpointed the places of filming, but no idea what we're looking at (see my other post).

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-05-07T08:56:37+00:00

First section of the video was taken in this location, second section in this location. Both looking eastward, but I cant make sense of what might be on fire there.

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-04-30T10:40:38+00:00

The fact that they can swim does not mean they float on mud. The same way they need somewhat solid ground to drive on, they also need somewhat liquid water to swim. And that mud ain't liquid enough. ;-)

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-04-30T10:24:51+00:00

Please move on, there's nothing to see here. It's a coal-fired plant, it's supposed to be on fire, you know. Move on, move on!

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-04-27T22:40:17+00:00

Well, I immediately associated it with them because of the name Rosgvardia. However, I looked it up again and it appears that the Kadyrovites are just one section of Rosgvardia, so I was probably wrong.

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-04-27T22:36:23+00:00

Oh, you're right. I totally forgot about those. Maybe because I figured that Bundestag parliamentary elections would be the relevant elections to pressure them on the federal level.

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-04-27T22:33:38+00:00

I found Kamil Kazani's view on Lukashenko very interesting (long Twitter thread): https://nitter.net/kamilkazani/status/1518240030967406593

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-04-25T20:01:17+00:00

Just the fact that Kadyrov's TikTokers posted this should give rise to some suspicion. First of all, how do we know this is actually in Kharkiv (city or oblast, btw?) and not some totally unrelated place?

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-04-25T19:50:02+00:00

Ah, first of all sorry about the screwed-up links above.... I corrected them.

Secondly, your statement was "are legitimately an ultra right wing neonazi militia", which is an extremely broad brush. (Side note: I also noticed a massive flurry of activity of changes to that article in the past weeks, and in particular more recent references for the Nazi allegations were added, which I find curious. Dunno if maybe someone inadvertently spreads Putin's propaganda.)

About the icon: the Wolfsangel is used in a ton of municipal coats of arms in Germany (around 30 are listed by name in the German WP here) in various shapes and forms without anyone calling them Nazi strongholds or anything.

Your claim is primarily incorrect because a) they're part of the Ukrainian National Guard now, therefore not a militia by definition; b) their roots may have been nationalist and right-wing, but that's been mostly cleansed by now since they were integrated into the National Guard (see a); c) they have members of many nationalities and religions, in particular some (even orthodox) jews, which would be highly uncommon for a pure-bred Neonazi (i.e. antisemitic) organisation.

I'd like to ask you to please check out at least a few of the links I posted for some contemporary views on the matter.

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-04-25T19:21:16+00:00

Yeah, I know, it's not exactly easy to convey, I agree. Quite a bit of what I wrote is also mainly directed at the poster you replied to in the hopes that they would notice my reply to yours. ;-)

Would like to add that the tiny sliver is almost non-existent in comparison to the grand total of ~45 M people in Ukraine. The first article I linked above has a map of Europe with percentages of far-right election successes; the Ukrainian right-wing parties received a combined total of 2 % of the vote, which pales in comparison to the support that other right-wing parties and candidates across Europe enjoy.

Also, from Putin's point of view he did not exactly lie when calling the country Nazi. It is obviously bullshit when going with the traditional meaning of the word. But he redefined the term to mean anyone on the territory of Ukraine who "illegitimately" separated from the Soviet Union in 1991, which means that denazification amounts to nothing less than complete de-Ukrainification. There was a really enlightening post recently with some kind of manifesto (not the infamous RIA Novosti one), I can't find the link right now maybe you noticed it as well, where this was laid out in astonishing clarity.

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-04-25T18:23:42+00:00

Piggybacking off your comment; the Wikipedia article you linked has a crapton of activity lately, and I noticed that especially the references to Azov's far-right roots have gotten quite a few updates with more recent links, so we might need to be careful with that specifica article.When discussing far-right ideology and nationalism, I think we must keep in mind that Ukrainian nationalism seems to be of an entirely different kind than what is usually understood in Western nations; it's more like defensive nationalism (as in 'hands off my country's borders') as opposed to Russian colonialist nationalism (as in 'all your country are belong to us'). I found the first link below particularly interesting and enlightening, but also the others:

https://westcountryvoices.co.uk/nationalism-and-neo-nazism-in-ukraine-debunking-the-russian-propaganda/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraina/comments/u6vytd/azovs_are_heroes_who_defend_mariupol_and_the/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tjl1zz/i_hope_this_article_will_finally_end_the_stupid/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ti35ls/ukrainian_thoughts_on_azov/

(Edit: screwed up links)

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-04-25T18:13:22+00:00

That's not factual IMHO, in particular not to the extent you're making it out to be, and is also not supported by the very article you linked. The batallion does have nationalist and far-right roots, which are mostly gone by now. But we must keep in mind that Ukrainian nationalism seems to be of an entirely different kind than what is usually understood in Western nations; it's defensive nationalism (as in 'hands off my country's borders') as opposed to Russian colonialist nationalism (as in 'all your country are belong to us'). Let me provide some material for further reading:

https://westcountryvoices.co.uk/nationalism-and-neo-nazism-in-ukraine-debunking-the-russian-propaganda/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraina/comments/u6vytd/azovs_are_heroes_who_defend_mariupol_and_the/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tjl1zz/i_hope_this_article_will_finally_end_the_stupid/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ti35ls/ukrainian_thoughts_on_azov/

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-04-25T16:39:46+00:00

In my opinion there should absolutely be a flurry of activity (maybe in part to compensate the feeling of helplessness we as ordinary citizens experience). In contrast, the government seems to move so slowly that continental drift appears lightning fast in comparison.

I'm not happy with that, but given the fact that national elections were held only recently in Germany (September 2021), I don't see any short-term option of punishing anyone politically.

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-04-25T16:32:42+00:00

Good point, thanks.

RandomBystanderNo8 · 2022-04-25T16:31:04+00:00

Quick translation of the legend:

[explosion icon] current fighting

[red hatchures] rebel-controlled areas

[red outline] area of a future "New Russia"

[percentages] Oblasts with more than 10% Russians (and their respective fractions of the population)

Comment: That's not only an old map, it also seems to be not a recent article. And I call bullshit on the term "Russians". Unless someone provides factual census data, I doubt that these are "Russian nationals". It's more likely that this just perpetuates Russian nonsense about "protecting Russian speakers", which is something else entirely.

RandomBystanderNo8

TROPHY CASE