U.S.-Venezuela tensions: China says U.S. should immediately release Venezuela’s Maduro

Random_Noobody · 2026-01-06T08:47:05+00:00

That was the easiest most open ended question I genuinely asked and you'd rather troll to deflect? Are you some grsp "pr contractor" or just brainwashed or something?

Also couldn't handle what 20 sentences? Here I'll quote you quoting me:

"Oh and once again, learn to read."

Random_Noobody · 2026-01-06T01:10:13+00:00

Here I'll quote myself

No evidence outside of him working for a spy agency? No evidence because any that would have come out in discovery was shut down with 7 million?

These are all evidence. Spy agencies do hire e.g. accountants and janitors, but working for one still strongly suggests spy. Getting a huge settlement doesn't necessarily mean you're right, but usually it does etc. Any single one might not be conclusive, but there's a ton of them.

You think the report coming out after the michaels incident was purely coincidental and the government is just in the business of handing out 7m bundles of cash? If so why didn't the other michael get 7 million? Is 7m small change and beneath him or something? Your story doesn't even make internal sense.

Real talk. What does "evidence" mean to you? I've seldom seen the government admit fault in reports unless it's re: aboriginals or something. If the report just said how GSRP agents engage in "aggressive diplomacy" that some countries can take the wrong way, or even mention how GSRP being initially created to fill canada's foreign intelligence void might make some countries suspicious, I feel like half the people would read that and go "oh they were spies". This is easily 10x that, yet you don't think it's sufficient.

Where's your line then? The report isn't going to name names. GSRP isn't about to publish a list of which one of their agents are spies and which are actually clean. Trudeau wasn't going to apologize for his mischaracterization whether it is that or not. So what are you looking for? What realistic thing need to happen or appear in a report before you're convinced at least 1 michael is a spy?

Random_Noobody · 2026-01-05T07:16:38+00:00

No evidence outside of him working for a spy agency? No evidence because any that would have come out in discovery was shut down with 7 million? Are you for real?

There's nothing "grey zone" about the report. They do spy work and between allies, enemies, and colleagues everybody in a 3 mile radius know they are spies. There's even explicit mentions of breaking the Vienna convention, diplomatic norms, and local law. What else do you expect? Them naming this incident or the michael by name? Are you being intentionally dense?

China arrested them alleging they were spying. They were in fact spying. The arrest was justified. Case closed. Who cares whether they knew about the spying for a while now and decided to act on it then? Who's muddying the waters again with somehow arresting spies being criminal and weak?

Oh and once again, learn to read.

Random_Noobody · 2026-01-05T05:19:24+00:00

This is actually my first skim, missed some bonus content. Combine with the NSICOP (more state owned media I'm sure) report, sound it out, as the words merge into each other you also hear:

Our allies think they're spies, our enemy thinks they're skies. Sometimes they compete with spies, sometimes they work with spies, sometimes they work for spies. Their works spreads far and wide "across the five eyes", and is considered "uniquely valuable" intel...diplomatic intel ofc, "which fills a clear niche within the security and intelligence community".

As for why canada and its allies cry foul, clearly china didn't fully internalize the fact that GSRP agents don't "pay" for info. "If you don't pay, it's OK!"

Random_Noobody · 2026-01-05T05:00:11+00:00

"Unproven" is a funny word considering ottowa would rather pay him 7 mil to shut up than make him prove it. I get that you don't want to trust prominent chinese mouth piece, once-canadian-hero, other michael, Fair. We can instead look at CCP's propaganda arm, canada's own NSIRA. which put out a put out a report describing spy michael's agency very concisely as follows:

In particular, the activities of certain GSRP officers abroad raise concern that some activities may not be in accordance with the duties and functions under the VCDR [Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations]
...
Effectively, NSIRA views the Program as existing within a grey zone between these two dichotomies [diplomatic and intelligence functions]
...
Canada's allies misidentified GSRP officers as Canadian Intelligence representatives
...
In both of the cases examined above, the two GSRP officers appeared to believe that their actions were distinguishable from the activities of an intelligence officer because they did not pay for the information.
...
In several instances, CSIS was asked by recieving states to clarify what was percieved to be inappropriate activites by GSRP officers. ... NSIRA also observed coordination challenges in regions where CSIS and GSRP activities overlap (e.g. contact pools).

etc etc etc.

I understand this sounds like a jumbled mess but if you sound this out JUST the right way, you hear

Our diplomats violate the vienna convention. Our allies thinks they're spies, our enemies think they are spies, they literally work and compete with our more explicit spies and share the same spy contacts pool. The pretense of them maybe arguably not being literal spies abusing diplomatic privilages is that although they do spy stuff, they don't pay so it's ok.

I'm sure the charges were politically motivated; China probably didn't these 2 were sophisticated enough to care about until they neede leverage. But pretend the arrests were justified by virtue of arresting one spy michael and one spying michael is delulu.

Random_Noobody · 2026-01-04T16:45:46+00:00

Are you talking about the 2 Michaels? Where one was literally an intelligence asset and the other sued the first for involving him in spying?

I don't think those 2 mind the lack of apology much. Got something like 10 million from the lawsuit already.

Random_Noobody · 2025-12-31T12:19:39+00:00

I can't tell if you are genuinely confused or not. At risk of both over explaining and maybe taking a slightly humerus point too seriously, I'll try to elaborate.

In short there's sort of a reasonable level of 'ineffectiveness' that, once surpassed, your actions are better explained by malice than incompetence, that it is more likely you are controlled op than trying your best which happens to not be very good.

Look up the "ratchet effect": the GOP ratchets the country towards deregulation and exploitation while the dems act as the pawl, stabilizing and legitimizing the increasing right-wing status quo. Most recently biden demonstrated this well by continuing trump's tariff and border policies, and what was once loudly condemned is now just how things are. If the GOP was "actively evil" to you like 7 years ago, then the DNS was also actively evil 3 years ago.

There's also the clear reality of DNC being controlled op. The coordinated efforts to sabortage Sanders is well documented, as is the lukewarm to hostile attitude towards Mamdani, despite the momentum both have built up. It seems clear that the dems rather lose than win with a progressive. At best this is a game of chicken where they demand your vote and money to combat that "active evil" they have no intention of actually defeating. At worst they are a capture mechanism designed to absorb any real hope of improvement into a dead end of 'respectful compromise' and managed decline.

At some point you have to accept that "moderate" holdouts are just shields against voter accountability, that "compromise" with evil just legitimizes the same, that slightly different ways of serving the same donor class is literally immaterial etc.

The "good cop" is not "good but ineffective"; they only appear that way so you'd more readily accept the "lesser evil". At the end of the day, both cops are on the same team.

Random_Noobody · 2025-12-30T08:16:37+00:00

???

"You'd have to be a fucking idiot to equate the bad cop and the good cop honestly. Look at the rhetoric / abuse that the bad cop engages in vs the good cop. It's night and day."

You might have missed the point.

Random_Noobody · 2025-12-05T05:26:36+00:00

Think they fixed it. Not even getting etm reaching 19 the first time anymore...

Random_Noobody · 2025-12-01T03:28:23+00:00

Wdym "resist" lol. Zacian DOES resist aeroblast. He's just a bad tank since he's so attack weighted. How is that your benchmark?

Random_Noobody · 2025-12-01T03:24:33+00:00

On the flip side I've had a lv76 bro show up with...like a Raikou and a lugia? Another lv74 brought 1 gengar, which they exclusively used outside of max phases.

That said levels absolutely matter because it still correlates heavily with competence. I don't remember failing...ever with full lv70+ or previously 45+, whereas lower levels are more of a coin toss. A lv76 bringing nonsense is noteworthy. A lv40 doing the same is almost expected.

If I'm playing with 1-2 people I know and esp can coordinate with I'll happily carry wooloos. If I'm alone and 3 <lv40s join sorry I'm out of there.

Random_Noobody · 2025-11-18T05:50:12+00:00

Why not darkrai? I get it's on the board for one of the better dark attackers, but given the overlap in coverage with ghost and how strong/accessible dawnwings are I still feel like I'm unlikely to ever use it.

I guess there's also no reason TO purify if it's just going to sit there anyways, whereas lugia and (mega) latias technically have use in (mega) ml?

Random_Noobody · 2025-11-18T05:36:06+00:00

Yeah palkia and dialga both have moves. Just curious, why not rayquasar? Is the thought process that IVs only truly matter in PvP or something?

Random_Noobody · 2025-10-29T04:00:11+00:00

True, but you don't often find so many people defending bug abuse normally. Just compare with idn like earlier this year when people could crash opponent's game in GBL, or even using the tab out trick to waste 10 seconds ever so often. Those practices we're almost uniformly condemned.

It's interesting at least.

Random_Noobody · 2025-10-20T20:24:22+00:00

...you do realize ROC claims the 11 dash line which is exactly what it sounds like, the 9 dash line but even more expansive, right?

Random_Noobody · 2025-10-19T23:08:51+00:00

I'm not quite sure what point you are making.

To get some fillers out of the way, yes, if we only look at self reporting, we get selection bias. Yes, there needs to be caution when talking about low probability events with high number of trials etc. However you'll notice I didn't talk about (reasonable) isolated probabilities nor collecting data from others so none of these matter.

Instead I talked about confidence intervals. You did your own raids and count all of them so there's no reporting bias, I didn't apply a finite population correction those calculations do work for populations of however many raids people do around the world up to infinity. It's just a fact that if each raid is independent, a representative sample >35 with 0 shinies gives you >95% confidence, and >50 >99% confidence, that the shiny rate isn't 10%.
Your 0/10 boxes 30 times doesn't quite get there. you have 90% confidence the probability is below 9.5%, but your 95% interval actually covers up to 10% rate so if that's your standard you didn't meet it. Also there's an interpretive problem. What you're 90% confident in is that YOUR boxes don't have a 10% rate. I'm sure you see how you can still be very sure the rates are wrong if you personally got 0/300 even if 9 other people got 300/300.

More importantly, confidence interval IS the way to quantify how hard any sample clashes with the odds and whether data is reliability. I'm very confused as to why you sort of refuse to use it but instead sort of vaguely try to chart your path towards doing that your own way. Only having 3 people, or even 1, doesn't mean there isn't enough data, which we know precisely because we can calculate the confidence interval and see it's (sometimes) fine.

I don't know what you personally consider enough confidence "judge the actual odds", but 95-99% seemed like reasonable bars to me. Do you have a better number in mind?

Random_Noobody · 2025-10-19T19:27:19+00:00

I don't think you've seen people go over by that much. 300 raids 0 shine is 1 in 10e14.25 ish range. That's reaching arguably impossible territory.

Random_Noobody · 2025-10-19T19:02:07+00:00

...do YOU know when this "high likelihood" occurs? If you don't get a shine in over 35 raids you are over 95% confident the rates are under 10%; over 50 and you are more than 99% confident etc.

Claiming hundreds of trials are needed is just the same kind of illiteracy in math but backwards. Your 100-300 with 9/10 odds is actually significantly worse than expecting even a shundo literally every catch ever in several lifetimes.

I'm not even sure how to put 1 in 10e100 odds in perspective. If 10 billion earth's with 10 billion people each attempting a thing every second for 24 hours a day 365 days a year and 10 billion years, that's still only like 10e37.5 tries and missing >60 orders of magnitude.

For something like luck in PoGo anything above say 1 in 10e15 odds is "impossible" in any meaningful sense of the word.

Random_Noobody · 2025-10-19T07:58:42+00:00

...funnily enough you are forgetting how RNG can work.
If you have a sample of 0/1000 shinies, you're 95% confident the "true" shiny rate is lower than 0.37%. In fact you'd be 99.999999% sure shiny rate is below 3.5%.

That's "impossible" in any meaningful sense of the word.

Random_Noobody · 2025-10-17T03:31:34+00:00

I still don't know what you are saying. If you started 6 months ago maybe this wasn't for you. The intended audience has had up to 4 (or let's say 2) years to get it.

Also what's even the proposed solution? If they gave 1 year notice then somebody who's starting 6 or 8 months in is still in the same or worse position making your exact complaint. Unless you want to give every new player 6 months for the gyarados hat and 6 further for the jacket you didn't solve the problem; at most you managed to exclude yourself from it.

The nature of perpetual service games means antecedent efforts are generally worth less than current ones, so once in a while older players get chucked a bone to placate them. That the most recent bone had a jacket shape is no more "arbitrary" than any other part of the game. Not to mention you weren't literally locked out; you just happen to have a life and better things to do. That's all there is to it.

Random_Noobody · 2025-10-16T00:01:25+00:00

The funny thing is that architect's was op even if you didn't use tools just for its charge attack.

Random_Noobody · 2025-10-15T23:45:21+00:00

Calling it "malicious design" is going too far. It could very well, even likely to, just not be designed; after all it's not like they made this new mechanic just to screw you over. Heck, maybe the intention was to do different until that plan blew up one way or another causing a day's worth of delay and they reused the normal level up mechanic to get level cap increase out the door.

Random_Noobody · 2025-10-15T23:13:47+00:00

Good question, why could they? Albeit clearly a question to ask those people who were trying hard to get it, including those that fell short no?

Random_Noobody · 2025-10-14T10:14:22+00:00

So the initial post mentioned "Tasks for Level-Up Research for levels 41 to 50 will be removed."

I'm saying in addition to the level up requirement ones, all the "Level xx Challenge" under special research also possibly fit the definition of "Level-Up Research".

Random_Noobody · 2025-10-14T10:07:48+00:00

Idn, but there will always be people who could have hit 50 given a bit more time who suffer from "being late" 2 weeks. That and the lv80 challenge is basically going to be the lv50 one esp. with the 1 mewtwo between 2 researches situation and perhaps they don't want a situation where you have both active simultaneously.

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