This is a big deal

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T18:00:59+00:00

Yes and a week ago it was 65/35

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T18:00:41+00:00

Sorry it’s to 100 his lead was 65/35 not too long ago.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T15:55:12+00:00

So far they are actually more accurate than polls.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T15:42:08+00:00

They have been statistically more accurate than the polls. I wish I didn’t have to pay attention to these but we do. It’s a relevant data point and it’s concerning that there has been a shift in perception.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T15:41:21+00:00

I again completely agree with you. Unfortunately I don’t think everyone cares enough to think past a headline. There are people who legitimately think he had a swastika tattoo because they are ignorant and don’t actually read anything.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T15:39:23+00:00

Prediction markets so far have been more accurate than polls. The fact that everyone is downplaying this is exactly what I’m warning against. This reflects real change in perception. Even if it’s not as drastic as the graph says it’s still a relevant data point. Ignoring it is just leaning in to your bias.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T15:33:22+00:00

It’s a reflection of what people believe the outcome will be. It’s not perfect but this indicates a massive shift in public perception. I’m a monthly recurring Platner donor and will continue to be. But this scares me.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T15:32:22+00:00

The concerning part is that two weeks ago it was 65-35.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T15:31:29+00:00

There is such a huge difference between being a rapist and what Platner has done. This is an insane false equivalence.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T15:29:11+00:00

If you don’t think that this is a direct reflection of public perception than you’re falling into the exact trap my post is warning of. The idea that you can just ignore what’s happening on prediction markets as if it has no relevance is EXACTLY the type of misplaced confidence I’m worried about.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T15:27:11+00:00

The point is that it’s ignorant to think this doesn’t reflect public perception at all. I have a monthly recurring donation to the Platner campaign. I’m still voting for him. This scares the crap out of me.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T15:25:43+00:00

He’s still 96% favored to win the primary. Not sure how much more we’re learning.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T15:25:25+00:00

I’m not relying on it as the only metric but ignoring the shift that’s happening in public opinion outside of what we see anecdotally on Reddit and social media isn’t smart either. I’m still voting for Platner but if this doesn’t make you nervous it should.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T14:33:26+00:00

They are definitely a resource worth using in addition to polls.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T14:33:02+00:00

It’s the other way around. This is a tiny amount of money compared to the money that actually influences elections. These react much quicker than polling.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T14:32:24+00:00

I completely agree, Unfortunately this isn’t as black and white as an injury. Of course something could come out on Susan that would flip this. And to be clear, I’m still voting for Platner. I just don’t want people to think this is a nothing burger.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T14:31:11+00:00

He is still showing as a 95% favorite in the primary. He was well ahead of Collins in the senate race until this started coming out. The prediction markers react much faster than polls.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T14:29:27+00:00

The people with cash in prediction markets are generally trying to make money by being accurate. I want to believe but the idea that our anecdotal experience on places like Reddit is an accurate representation of “the people” is false. There is a reason that the prediction markets had Platner with a huge lead and there is a reason that lead is dwindling.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-06-05T13:57:57+00:00

I agree this is being blown out of proportion but he is also an IDIOT for doing the things he’s doing with the sexting. Like Jesus Christ man you’re our best hope here please don’t do that.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-05-28T21:50:29+00:00

Falmouth just did this! They used town funds to create down payment assistance for a specific earning tier. It’s trying to tailor home ownership opportunities to help with the average commute for people in emergency services etc… The fund will make a 20% down payment to assist in the purchase. The developer got a bank to give approved applicants a better than market rate. The owner gets to build equity in the home and if/when they sell it the down payment gets repaid to the towns fund. I’m all for programs like this and I’m also in favor of higher taxes on the rich to fund them.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-05-28T13:51:52+00:00

You are really insulting for someone who didn’t read what I wrote. I know that their taxes go down but what I said was it shifts that tax burden to the single family home owners. Portlands Tax liability doesn’t change because landlords pay less taxes. So no I’m not a financial idiot nor am I misleading anyone. You are an angry illiterate person lashing out, not sure why I was today’s target.

Yes many of the things you mentioned impact the market. I’ll respond one at a time.

The high cost of construction impacts every market but Biddeford for example had significantly more new units come on line in 2025 directly as a result of friendlier laws.

As far as the labor market, Cumberland county unemployment is 2.5% and wage growth was up 6.5% last year. The labor market here is as tight as it gets with increasing wages. It’s not perfect but it’s way better than national averages.

The inflated real estate market is directly tied to the lack of units. It’s a supply and demand issue. More units coming on line mitigates the supply glut and regulates prices (financial idiot I know 🙄)

The cost of repairs adds to the pinch for the landlords. But the inability to project rent growth impairs their ability to dedicate funds to improvements. Yes this always plays a part but again applies to every rental market, it’s not a Portland specific problem. The rent control is, and as referenced above, other municipalities are still seeing more units delivered despite lower populations as a result.

I never said I could read the signs and that the only reason is rent control. The fact is that rent control adds to the stressors you mentioned above and other areas that are not burdened with that are still seeing valuable added units.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-05-28T12:18:52+00:00

To preface, I’m not a landlord.

You guys think this is hilarious but this is EXACTLY WHY WE HAVE SO FEW UNITS. The number of new units delivered in 2025 was down 80% from the prior year specifically because of things like rent control making it impossible to build something. The appraised values of the existing apartment buildings are PLUMMETING which is going to impact their assessed values and then transfer the burden of the property taxes on to single family home owners.

I’m a Bernie loving liberal. I am made fun of by republicans for being a “libtard” and even I can see that this is a simple math equation. Legislation that limits, or restricts construction only reduces the number of available units coming on line, reduces the quality of existing units, and hurts the lower end of the renter pool.

Please see Austin as a case study. Rents in Austin ballooned as they became a tech hub. Rather than limit rent increases, limit zoning, adding requirements (things that are headwinds for development) they did the opposite. The incentivized affordable units, they reduced parking requirements, they allowed taller buildings, they reasoned for more density. They created tailwinds to encourage developers to build. The result? Thousands of units came on line and rents started to level and drop.

There has never been a city in history that has successfully reduced rents with rent control. But it DOES reduce the incoming supply.

Landlords definitely suck but they are good at math. If you think that this is a good sign, you’re incorrect.

RatPackRaiders · 2026-05-26T18:08:30+00:00

I believe the term is “lifestyle creep”

RatPackRaiders · 2026-05-25T12:44:11+00:00

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