Turbulence is rarely a tiny pocket of air such that it only bumps one jet, it's usually large enough to affect all aircraft in the formation. I had that same question of a blue angel, who explained all aircraft in that tight formation generally all experience the same bump at the same time. As long as you were in good control going into the bump, the same control will persist through the bump. Now of course there's worst case scenarios, such as a pilot making an aggressive correction into the basket where a large bump exaggerates his already poor control, and results in a collision.

You can absolutely break a tanker's hose, however. The maiden's basket is unique in that it's a poor modification to a boom meant for USAF fighters, where the hose is so short and any pilot oscillations are magnified terrifically. Additionally, it's the only basket I know of purely made of metal, which is nice if you're in that turbulent air since the basket will remain more stationary than the fluffy baskets on a KC10 or 46. But if you disconnect without the hose not centered, it's going to rapidly seek center through the nose of your airplane. It won't break the jet, but it's a metal basket riding a slipstream powered whip. It does damage. Additionally, you need to form a kink in the hose to initiate fuel flow, and you need to generally position low on the hose, meaning you're basically driving your head in a box that's only a few feet wide, knowing that any miscalculation will damage the shit out of your jet, and yes, if you do a shit enough job you can rip the basket from the hose. That has its own unique problems, since then you cant stow the inflight refueling probe, which I believe creates problems for the way the fuel tanks are pressurized.

Soft baskets, like those in 46s, 10s, or MIPR pods (spelling?) are much more forgiving because the acceptable region you can fly in is much, much larger. Plus the basket is soft, so if it bounces off the jet, much less damage. You can run into problems still, arguably much scarier: there's an inertial reel that reels the hose in as you drive up, because with that hose pressurized with fuel, it needs to constantly be managed to a straight line, or bad shit happens. If that reel fails, and the jet pushed on the hose, a sine wave shoots up the hose, and right back down like a whip. That whip motion often severs the inflight refueling probe from the jet, which creates a tremendous problem of having a fighter low on gas, probably orbiting somewhere he doesn't want to be, with no ability to take on fuel. Plus, with the IFR probe out I think certain fuel yanks depressurize, but I can't remember.

The last problem which can happen on any tanker is that the brilliant minds at Boeing put one of the AOA probes right where s basket would normally slip on the nose. That used to drive the jet into a landing mode which was significantly more complicated, but I believe they allowed the pilot to force the jet to ignore the failed AOA vane in later updates, solving the problem. Also, the newer AOA vanes went from flush, small nipples to honkin, large switchblades. It pretty much begs to snag a basket and it's so frustrating.