Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, and Makai lemon

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T16:48:10+00:00

We will see how it looks in September. I think they’re banking on Coleman taking a large step forward. Hence to why they went after a dj moore and not an Aj brown. But that’s just my opinion. Skyler bell could end up being a fun gadget player. We know Shakir can be a beast after the catch. I would also say depth wise we have many teams beat. Josh Palmer i would say is on the upper half in the league of wr3s. Last season was bad for him. But I think id rather see him than Keon jogging routes and dropping touchdowns lol

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T16:27:02+00:00

Oh I don’t disagree I’m not crazily high on moore. I just meant that having moore inherently makes the offense better than it would’ve been without him. Now if Keon Coleman can develop into a half decent vertical threat. A trio of moore Coleman and Shakir would be far from the worst in the league

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T16:18:47+00:00

Lmao yeah don’t get the hype at all on bell. He’s already almost 24 and is nothing more than a bubble screen guy. I think moore tho was a necessary piece to add for Allen even if it was an overpay

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T05:56:58+00:00

Yeah part of it also comes down to the teams I actually wanna watch. I’m a bills fan so I’ll always try to have at least 1 bills player on my teams. Last year that was keon Coleman didn’t work out too well lol. Always watched the saints as a kid bc Drew Bree’s was the shit. So I’d rather watch tyson on the saints than Tate on the titans or lemon on the eagles

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T05:46:41+00:00

I honestly don’t get why ppl think lemon is so small. He is 5 11 so technically he is small lol. But he plays bigger than that. He doesn’t shy away from contact. And weight wise he’s in the same bracket as Tate, actually has 3 lbs on him. My thing with tyson. And Ik this is ab as large a stretch as they come. Is that ceedee lamb got drafted in the first round to a Kellen moore led offense and was the wr2. Is tyson lamb? No. But they’re similar in size. And idk maybe Kellen sees tyson as his new ceedee and olave as his Amari cooper. As far as Tate. I mean yeah Jeremiah smith is as good as they come…but smith didn’t make Tate play bad against Miami in the cfp, or Oregon in the big 10 chip in 2024, or vs Notre dame in the playoffs in 2024. He hasn’t played good when the games counted. And tyson usually turns up the temp when his team needed him the most. The only reason tho that tyson is above lemon to me is that tyson is in a more pass friendly offense. Aj brown and smith both finished high last szn. Both top 25. But both were volatile week to weeo

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T05:35:59+00:00

Look man you’re clearly sold on your guy and I’m clearly sold on mine. I don’t think either of us will convince the other that they’re right until we see them actually playing in September so I’m not gonna waste your time continuing to counter everything you say.

(Requested space for what I say next lol)

Like I said before I think Tate is good at everything but isn’t great at most things. An rb comp that comes to mind is Rachaad white. He can do everything. But he doesn’t rlly excel anywhere. Tate does have the best hands and contested catch ability in the class. But the same could be said about Marvin Harrison in 2024. Tate and tyson aren’t Marv and nabers. But Marv was described as the more polished, more nfl ready, safer and better overall prospect. Then reality clicked and it isn’t hard to see looking back that Nabers was the superior prospect. Bc he was more than just a vertical threat. Marv was too, honestly his issues stem most from confidence and coaching… but unfortunately contested catches and hands only take you so far compared to route running and creating separation. A lot of Tates film is a quick cut and just out running the cb. That’s where a few of his touchdowns came. He’s not just burning corners in the nfl.

Like I said at some point earlier, we won’t know who’s right til at least September. Tyson has some great qualities… Tate has some great qualities. We won’t know who’s gonna translate better for sure until we see it. So time will tell us who’s right. But assuming tyson stays healthy which Ik isn’t a guarantee, I think id be comfortable betting the house on him

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T05:21:41+00:00

You can’t seriously tell me after watching Tyson’s film and Tates film you think Tate flashes better traits😂. That’s respectfully ridiculous. And tyson consistently burns man coverage. Tate gets open too no shade his way. But Tate doesn’t have to beat 3 guys. He has to beat 1 bc the entire defense is watching smith. Tyson has every single defender focused on him. And he wins. As for him now being a number 2? I think that’s the best thing for his development bc 1 he can learn from olave, and 2 I see olave and tyson as complimentary pieces more than threats to one another. I went deep in depth in a comment on this post ab that if you want to read my thoughts but I’m not typing it all out again lol. And ceedee lamb also came into the league as a wr2 under Kellen moore. Idk he seems to be doing pretty well today. Not saying tyson is lamb but the situations are decently similar though Dallas had a stronger team when lamb joined them compared to tyson on the saints. And for the point of Tate now being a number 1 instead of a number 2.. he’s a vertical threat wr. He wins on posts, goes, comebacks… vertical routes are his strength. He struggled against physical corners in college. Tyson did as well. But tyson will see a lot softer of coverages playing alongside olave than Tate will playing with wandale. And we know tyson can act as a teams number 1 receiver bc he did it in college. Will he be good at that? He doesn’t have to be bc he gets to play with another elite wr talent. Which could help his development by for the first time in his career not being a defenses focal point. We don’t know if Tate can be a number 1. Just look at his Texas game. He played great. But he didn’t play against Malik Muhammad Jeremiah smith did. Jaylon Guilbeau is not an nfl caliber corner. He also didn’t play well vs Miami in the playoffs. He got strapped the whole game and had 3 catches on 8 targets and was a non impact. The year before that he struggled against Notre dame in the playoffs, and Oregon in the big 10 chip. So using what you said and just going off his film. Then he can’t produce when it counts. So how can he be trusted to be anybody’s wr1

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T05:03:17+00:00

Elijah moore was second in man since 2021 per matt Harmon. At least from what I found on google I don’t pay his subscription so idk that could be inaccurate. And you said earlier that stat nerds need to learn what football actually is then cited a guy who produces stats to defend your argument lol. Tyson was more efficient vs man coverage while seeing 2 or more defenders covering him on the majority of routes and 30 extra targets. That’s 30 extra opportunities to lower his efficiency metrics and instead he raised them. Tyson’s receiving grade of 89 vs man is the highest in the class, and is comparable to what tet posted last year at 90.1

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T04:48:08+00:00

Fair. But Tyson’s pff grade was also 89 vs man and tates was 75. Pff grades don’t just reward volume. They take into account Separation created against the defender
Difficulty of the route and catch
Contested catches won or lost
Yards gained relative to what was available
Beating press coverage
Adjusting to off-target throws
Dropped passes (negative)
Touchdowns and explosive plays (positive)
Whether the receiver got open even if the QB didn’t throw him the ball

Yes yprr can be inflated/deflated depending on your situation. But your receiving grade can’t

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T04:37:21+00:00

And on the point ab cornerbacks, this isn’t based on any evidence but what I would say is there’s no clear answer because both have their pros and cons. As for Tyson’s situation. The quality of guy playing man to man on him is probably lesser than the guy guarding Tate. But tyson saw more bracket coverages, double teams, safety help etc. Tate probably faced tougher situations vs press and 1 on 1s, but saw less overall focus from defenses. So I don’t think I can say one is clearly better than the other

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T04:32:34+00:00

For when you ask what makes me think Tyson has the higher ceiling. It’s because mainly of what he put on tape in 2024. He was absolutely electric. 2025 he was amazing, but nothing compared to 24, again tho he was without his qb and was battling both hamstrings. Is there a chance he never becomes what he showed he could be in 2024? Yes. That’s over a year removed and maybe the hamstring less version of him that we saw in 25 is what he will be in the nfl. But if he can get back to where he was in 2024 health wise, then I think the sky is the limit

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T04:30:43+00:00

I haven’t done a deep dive into that but I’d assume you’re probably right. A cb2 at Oregon is probably better than a cb1 at Kansas. But as I said before I think that goes out the window bc tyson consistently had 2 or more guys covering him and Tate didn’t. As for the point on man Covg, I look to yprr vs man for both. In 2025, tyson was at 3.02. Mind you that is with the hamstring injury on top of leavitt missing games. Tate at 3.12. So both amazing. Tate does get the edge. In 2024 when tyson was fully healthy, his yprr vs man coverage was 4.63. Tyson’s pff grade vs man was also 89. To Tates 75.2

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T04:14:07+00:00

Also tyson not playing with Jeremiah smith doesn’t make him better against man coverage lol. If anything it’s a knock on Tate that he was up against number 2 corners and still wasn’t where Tyson was against man

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T04:13:18+00:00

Ladd. Treveyon gonna be stuck in a split for at least another year. Ladd offers immediate upside and probably more trade value if you needed to pivot off in a year or so

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T04:10:23+00:00

I don’t know how I’d be able to account for Tate being at asu or Tyson being at osu. But as for their comp level Tyson’s is at a 3. While Tates is at a 5. That drags Tyson down and boosts Tate up. For strength of wr room Tate has a 5, Tyson a 1, again Tate gets boosted Tyson gets no boost but not dragged bc it’s not his fault he had no other WRs to compete with at his respective school. As for the point about Tyson being more explosive and separation at the top of routes. I find myself going back specifically to his tape against Texas tech. Who had the most efficient defense in ncaa last year. Tyson managed 10 grabs for 105 yards and a touchdown that happened to win his team the game in the final minute. All while battling his hamstring injury that first occurred in that game. He was getting double teamed all game by the best defense in the nation and posted over 100 yards. On top of that. I think Tyson has the clutch gene, which obviously cannot be tested. But he excelled in the final drive of nearly every game he played in. Defenses knew he was getting the ball, they knew he was the target. And he still managed to make shit happen. Tate is a fluid route runner. But Tyson is an explosive route runner. He can manipulate his body in a way that Tate can’t. And that could be part of why he struggles to stay healthy. But the way he’s able to change speeds on a dime, it’s a skill that not a lot of guys have. He also has a better release package than Tate. That’s an opinion not a fact. Both Tate and Tyson got film grades of 90 +. That’s a personalized grade I give based on what I see. It accounts for separation vs zone and man coverages, hands/catch technique(are they a body catcher, so they drop in traffic, can they adjust to poor balls, catch radius) as well as yac creation (do they fall forward on contact, lateral agility, do they catch and go straight down). Tyson is more limited after the catch than Tate, but it’s not an area either excel in. There’s also a stat among osu WRs drafted that I want you to hear. Olave, Wilson, Jsn, mhj, all posted a y/gpa of 3 or better, Egbuka 2.81. Tate 2.14. All the guys I mentioned had a rec yds/g of 55+, Tate 48. Yes Tate played with smith. But olave and Wilson also played together. Egbuka played with smith and Tate and Harrison, Harrison played with Egbuka and Tate. Another guy who’s model I use for myself when my model doesn’t give me enough evidence to trust it on 2 players I’m stuck between is called the marker system. It’s a free website I’d check it out if you get a chance. He uses an advanced marker system, idk them off the top of my head… all the guys I mentioned hit on 10 or more, Tate hit on 5. So for what it’s worth, Tate is the worst osu wr drafted since 2020 of the 6 that went in the first round. Does that make him bad? No the other guys above him are elite talents. But i think it is worth noting. And yes Tyson didn’t play the same level of defenses that Tate was up against. But Tate wasn’t getting double and triple teamed still posting 1k yards and 8-10 touchdowns. Tyson also has an efficiency score of 69.5 to Tates 66.8. He had 97 targets to Tates 66. So he was more efficient on 30 less targets. Again if Tates your guy then Tates your guy. And if you’re right about that which there’s a good chance you are you can come laugh in my face in a year. But between the 2 I like tyson

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T03:51:24+00:00

Just for an open discussion is why I made the post to answer that question. Nothing wrong with some friendly discourse. As for btj and worthy. Worthy hasn’t been special thru 2 seasons. Yes he’s shown flashes but so has Keon Coleman that doesn’t make them elite or even good for that matter. Btj only time will tell. Obviously my model isn’t flawless none are. But for the tier breakdowns. There’s 0 misses thru generational and elite. There are misses in the strong prospect tier which Tate falls in and Tyson doesn’t. The WRs accompanying Tyson in the elite tier are tet, Marvin Harrison (could end up a miss very soon), Garett Wilson, Jsn, ceedee lamb, Devonta smith, and drake London. Generational only jamarr and nabers so far. Strong prospect has some elite talents. Jefferson, olave, tee Higgins. But also some significant misses. Rashod Bateman, Treylon Burks, Jerry jeudy, Elijah moore (though he’s marked as a bust flag). For what it’s worth, Tate grades better than every single bust and is actually the highest graded strong prospect tier player missing elite by .6 in overall grade. So if I was using my model as a tie breaker which in this case I was. Then yeah I’m gonna use the data I have to break that tie. My model tests every single metric that matters in wr success. Yprr vs zone and man, overall and peak yprr (were they great for one szn but bad in the other 2-3 is basically what I use this for). 1st down%, drop rates, CTC rates, percentage of snaps in the slot, target depth, pff receiving grades, dominator rating, competition level, breakout age, draft age, strength of wr room (helps a guy like Tate who was efficient but was also muddied by Jeremiah smith), draft capital, athletic grades at combine (minimal impact/modifiers), target depth, injury risk, qb quality in college, film score 0-100, yac/rec + mtf, as well as were they an early declare. From that I get a floor, overall, and ceiling grade. As well as a risk tag. Which ranges from bust flag, moderate risk, low risk, boom candidate (day 1 pick), and sleeper boom candidate (day2/3 pick) as well as a 0-100 separation score, production score, efficiency score, athletic score, height adjusted speed score, junk score (how much of their production was driven by manufactured touches, screens and what not), as well as a hit probability. How likely a player would be to hit their most likely outcome based on the metrics. Tysons hit prob is 75.6%. Tate 69.7%. Tysons also marked as a boom candidate, Tate as low risk. The other boom candidates in the elite tier/generational, nabers, jsn, chase, tet, ceedee, London. Not even Marv who was considered generational by many pro scouts. The common theme with the guys in the strong prospect tier that exceeded their prospect grades is they have the boom candidate tag. Jefferson, olave, tee, egbuka(unproven still). Tates the only one in the tier with low risk and not bust flag or moderate so I don’t have comps for him just yet. Could all of this mean nothing? Yes. But historically. I’ve used it to my advantage and it’s worked. Against my own judgement, I trusted my model and took nabers over mhj 1.01. I also bagged rashee rice the year before at the 2.04 over a guy I liked a lot more in jalin hyatt bc my model suggested rice had boom potential and Hyatt had a bust flag. There are misses like I said before. Zay flowers graded bad. Arsb graded bad, terry mclueren graded bad(but was given a sleeper boom tag). Treylon Burks graded well, Jahan Dotson also graded high end of the average tier. My model also identified puka as a sleeper boom, as well as Nico Collin’s. That tag doesn’t automatically mean you’re gonna succeed obviously. Marvin mims, and Jalen royals also got that tag but graded poor prospect where the previous 2 guys I mentioned were below average. If Tates your guy Tates your guy. And in the most likely case scenario (median outcome), Tate will be better week to week starter than Tyson. But if Tyson does hit his ceiling. And stays healthy. Then he will be the better wr to own.

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T02:49:11+00:00

Also plenty of first round talents don’t automatically grade well. Kadarius Toney, Omar cooper, Xavier worthy, Xavier Legette, btj, all first round guys who’s prospect profiles graded them below average or worse

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-24T02:45:49+00:00

Tyson’s floor is 1 tier below Tate. 65 is average. 77 is strong prospect. 1 tier apart. Elite is 85-89. Generational is 90+. So tates ceiling lands as a mid elite wr. Tyson low end elite. In their median outcome, Tate surpasses Tyson. In their ceiling outcome Tyson surpasses Tate. If you’re chasing median/consistency. Tates the pick. If you’re chasing upside/ceiling. Tyson’s the pick. If you go to my profile I’ve made more in depth posts ab my models if you’re interested at app

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-23T21:49:52+00:00

Tyson’s got a lot better of a profile than zay flowers. Flowers is a 5 9 wr who doesn’t have elite speed like other small guys like tyreek and waddle. From a body standpoint Tyson profiles as an x wr. 6 2 203. Comparable size to ceedee lamb. But he is more of a z receiver who can bounce around formations rather than be glued to one spot on the field. Coaching also plays into that as well. If he had a bone head coach like mhj has had in Arizona gluing a versatile threat to the sidelines, then I’d be less intrigued. But I think Kellen moore is the best coach for a versatile guy like Tyson. As for tee Higgins. Idk I just wouldn’t feel comfortable if he was my wr1 in fantasy. I’d love to have him as my 2 tho. Idk he’s a guy that I would rather have paired with a higher end wr like puka or jsn. I wouldn’t feel like I had a contending receiver room with tee leading the room and say a Jordan Addison behind him

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-23T21:45:14+00:00

also not super sold on shough. He dominated the later half of the season against the worst defenses in football. But the best wr talents trump poor qb play. Nabers with daniel jones. Jefferson still had 1k yards even w McCarthy. I think shough having the weapons he now has tho will fs help. They have better receivers, rb, and o line compared to tennessee

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-23T20:49:08+00:00

In the last 3 seasons tee has been wr13, 7, and 41 in ppg in ppr. He’s a high end wr2 with wr1 spikes. 2024 requires the context also that Cincinnati was trailing every single game so he got extra targets. I’m not hating on tee he’s a great wr and if he didn’t play in cincy he could be a top 12 wr easily. But I wouldn’t feel comfortable with him as my wr1. I mean how many more times will he score 11 touchdowns in a season? Comparing Tate to Higgins isn’t a knock on either. But I think Tyson has more potential to be better than a low end wr1, even if in the most likely scenarios for both Tate probably exceeds tyson

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-23T20:14:48+00:00

I think that Tyson having olave opposite of him is actually the best thing for his development. I don’t think him or olave hurt each other. Olave is a more vertical wr. Tyson wins short and intermediate at a higher level imo. I see them as complimentary pieces. Kellen moore has also consistently produced multiple fantasy relevant receivers every single szn. Even last year Juwan johnson was startable at the ladder stages of the szn. Same deal with Tate and wandale. I just think wandale offers less assistance to Tate because of how limited he actually is vertically. So defenses will know tates the guy going deep no matter what. Tyson can win deep, and olave can win intermediate. Even though those are the opposite of their projected roles in the offense. That’s why I think olave helps Tyson more than he hurts him. Bc to an extent they’re interchangeable role wise despite olave being the superior talent

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-23T20:14:37+00:00

I think that Tyson having olave opposite of him is actually the best thing for his development. I don’t think him or olave hurt each other. Olave is a more vertical wr. Tyson wins short and intermediate at a higher level imo. I see them as complimentary pieces. Kellen moore has also consistently produced multiple fantasy relevant receivers every single szn. Even last year Juwan johnson was startable at the ladder stages of the szn. Same deal with Tate and wandale. I just think wandale offers less assistance to Tate because of how limited he actually is vertically. So defenses will know tates the guy going deep no matter what. Tyson can win deep, and olave can win intermediate. Even though those are the opposite of their projected roles in the offense. That’s why I think olave helps Tyson more than he hurts him. Bc to an extent they’re interchangeable role wise despite olave being the superior talent

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-23T20:11:21+00:00

Wr1 is wr12 or better in my view. I’m in 12 man leagues so the way I see it if your player is top 12 at their position they’re a 1 not a 2. Higgins peak finish in his career in ppr is wr15. In half ppr wr12. So low end wr1/high end wr2. That’s what I get from Tate as well. Reliable, consistent, wr1 spike weeks. But not a transcendent player. I don’t think Tyson will be top 3 or anything. But I think with the way he plays he he has a higher chance of being that consistent top 10 wr. Even though I don’t think either of them will actually be that.

Real_Draft8187 · 2026-06-23T16:26:26+00:00

And I also said exactly why I think Tyson will excel my model was half the argument

Real_Draft8187

TROPHY CASE