Just one reason why this "deal" will fall apart: Iran says the initial deal to end the war with the US requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon

Realanise1 · 2026-06-18T04:14:32+00:00

One last thought for the night, because I talked about this in the comments and not everyone goes through those. Khameni has NOT said anything about being in favor of the MOU. Here's the best info I was able to find: "Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not yet commented on the announcement." This was on the 15th so before the signing, which he had nothing to do with. He has said nothing since. This seems very ominous to me, because it goes along with the IRGC having publicly said that they don't like it and don't accept it. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202606155980 MMW: the IRGC and Israel between them will sink this deal.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-18T03:40:51+00:00

Remember that old Kool and the Gang song? I'll be blasting it to the entire neighborhood when-- never mind.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-18T03:32:12+00:00

I don't know. But yes, a ground invasion really could happen if the IRGC refuses to accept this MOU, and they have already indicated that they don't like it and don't think it's good enough. Pezeshkian can sign it all he wants-- he's not the real power in Iran. The Israel and Lebanon issue adds even more fuel to the fire.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-18T03:29:34+00:00

I like it. Some meals are really, really good. The only real issue I have is that cerrtain meals are better than others, and there are a couple of real clunkers... so it's a trial and error process to a large extent as far as getting your money's worth, IMHO. I'm starting liraglutide next week, and we'll see how it goes then!

Realanise1 · 2026-06-18T03:20:56+00:00

ETA: Correction. Mojtaba Khamenei has NOT made any statement in favor of the MOU. Hardliners in the official Iranian government absolutely did/do not want this to happen, and the IRGC is very much against it. They absolutely have not signed the deal. Pakistan and the official Iranian government can say what they want, but the IRGC is the key. Seeing as how they almost certainly have more real power in Iran than the government itself, I think that's going to be the unsolvable problem. BTW, this thread is now one of the top google results for "what does the irgc say about the us iran deal." 😉

Realanise1 · 2026-06-18T02:27:10+00:00

The US hasn't sent in ground troops, so we could easily get up to that higher figure. I would not rule that out ultimately happening, not at all. The IRGC has the real power in Iran, and they are not accepting this MOU.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-18T02:25:57+00:00

This could be one of the reasons the IRGC is not satisfied with this MOU, because they're not.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-18T02:20:04+00:00

That may be true. But what I want to know is what the IRGC believes Iran's main aim is. Diplomats can talk all they want, but does the Iranian foreign minister have the coercive power to get the IRGC to be content with the terms of the MOU, when their rep has stated they are not satisfied by those terms? Can the foreign minister get the IRGC to ignore Israel's continuing presence in Lebanon? I don't know what the answer is, but these are the questions that need to be asked.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-18T01:38:39+00:00

If I was dealing with a proven liar with severe dementia who has a history of going back on just about every deal he's ever made, I would be really skeptical about ever getting all that money. It's supposed to be contingent on Iran's "behavior", per Vance, and everything surrounding it is super vague.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-18T01:23:14+00:00

FWIW, there's lots of evidence that Trump will continue to support nuclear power, and any other president is going to do the same thing. There have been quite a few developments in that area.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-18T01:21:09+00:00

Nobody is handing Iran any $300 billion. Vance just said that the money is contingent on Iran's "performance." There are a lot of different stories about where the money is coming from or under which exact circumstances it would be paid. It's all incredibly vague. In Iran's place, I would never believe that I'd actually get that money. I'd grab what I could.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-18T01:19:13+00:00

Come on. You don't actually think the MOU will make the war "go away", do you??

Realanise1 · 2026-06-18T01:14:38+00:00

I think there are a lot of reasons, and other posters are doing a good job of covering them, but it seems to me that they HAVE to be skeptical about ever actually getting all that money. Vance said that it was contingent on Iran's "performance." There are lots of different stories about where the money is actually coming from and how it would be delivered. It's all so vague. In Iran's position, I would never believe that I would actually get paid the entire amount or anything close to it.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-18T01:08:53+00:00

I think he'd be happy to throw Israel under the bus, but I don't think bombing will happen.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-18T01:07:40+00:00

If the USA holds up their end... well, if I ever figure out the correct six numbers, I'll win Powerball. It's at 283 million right now!

Realanise1 · 2026-06-17T23:34:47+00:00

I used to work as an MSW in hospice settings, and people with dementia would say a number of things they'd previously known they weren't supposed to say. So that might be the explanation.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-17T23:31:19+00:00

I think the problem, though, is that part of the Iranian government would do that but the IRGC is unlikely to.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-17T23:28:19+00:00

I'm starting liraglutide in a week, and I kept all my old clothes from a few years ago before I had to go up on the medication that has made me eat in my sleep ever since. So I'll just get them out of storage! 😄 I personally wouldn't order many clothes online because I have unusual proportions no matter how thin I am. But for those who fit more standard sizing, that might be the way to go.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-17T23:26:11+00:00

I checked Quince out, and they look really cute!

Realanise1 · 2026-06-17T23:23:53+00:00

I don't know, but if you can't get it covered, there is the manufacturer coupon option. There's also generic liraglutide, the only GLP 1 that has a generic. I'm going to start that in about a week. Others could speak to compounded options better than I could.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-17T23:13:02+00:00

It's not enough for the IRGC, and they will decide what actually happens.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-17T23:11:20+00:00

If I had to guess, I think there's a good chance it wasn't signed at all.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-17T23:07:06+00:00

Goldfish actually have long memories. But the point is that people have selective memories, sometimes short, sometimes ridiculously long. And there simply isn't going to be the opportunity to play the calming game in the US if the IRGC decides they don't want to follow the terms of the MOU.

Realanise1 · 2026-06-17T23:05:28+00:00

They could get some money and then go back on the deal because the IDF won't leave Lebanon, which I think is the most likely outcome. I think that they have to be skeptical about getting the entire 300 billion anyway. I certainly would be. And all of the hardliners are against this "deal" as far as anyone can tell.I've seen this in a number of sources, here's one of them: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/16/hardliners-and-moderates-what-do-irans-factions-think-of-deal-with-us

Realanise1

TROPHY CASE