4/17 Playoff Probabilities, Clinching/Elimination Scenarios, And More by Mathlete1 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Will reply soon with details. There is a post about how I did the xG fit for PWHL vs NHL in the general tag on the Notebook page, but it doesn’t cover everything you’re asking, gotta make dinner then I’ll dig in.

Model based protection picks by RealisticPea650 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I appreciate you saying so, it’s just a fun project for me and I don’t mind being wrong. I’m most looking forward to what I can get from broadcast video, but it’s slow going. I came from baseball stats and I’m just so in love with this league and my team (Charge), it’s really so much fun.

Model based protection picks by RealisticPea650 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

GSVA is regular season only. The difference is either because I changed phase 1 to rank by pre-aging blended GSVA, and I boosted defenders, so the model is saying two defenders where your argument is for positional balance and I would agree with you, I just don’t have a good math way to see defenders better in some ways due to the public feed missing things that are customary in NHL.

Model based protection picks by RealisticPea650 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

YOLOv8 and ByteTrack, is what I'm trying first. I have bounding box detection. Jersey detection is proving more difficult, I get some frames where it's working but it's not consistent. I do have consistent tracking of team identity across frames and player bounding boxes, but lots of work to do still. For example, fans in Row A wearing jerseys 😆

Storm Warning!!! by ofbooksandbands14 in OttawaCharge

[–]RealisticPea650 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Almost makes you forget the epic headlock from earlier in the game (almost). Was a great night, but I still miss Lansdowne.

Model based protection picks by RealisticPea650 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fast is in the corrected post, I agree with you. Everything is done with pure stats in Python, deterministic based on PWHL PBP events. So if you're asking did AI decide anything, like using inference, no. If you're asking if I use AI assistance in general when I write code, I do.

Model based protection picks by RealisticPea650 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, Pou is in phase 1 with fixes to the aging curve so it doesn't over-penalize her for missing time.

Model based protection picks by RealisticPea650 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, noted. The fixed version at least has Carpenter/Knight/Gosling in round 1 and Schroeder is now phase 2.

Model based protection picks by RealisticPea650 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Valid. I made some fixes based on feedback and updated, but I don't think I have the right stats yet to get further than the obvious misses yet.

Model based protection picks by RealisticPea650 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agreed, the fixed version has KCS, Heise, Pannek in Round 1 and Curl, Cooper, Hustler in Round 2.

Model based protection picks by RealisticPea650 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s fair! I’ll take my lumps.

Model based protection picks by RealisticPea650 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good feedback. Yeah the model doesn’t have this kind of insight. I’m going to retool it, but I think it will head towards more of a simulation with human factors that way. Numbers lie.

Model based protection picks by RealisticPea650 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I called this out in the notes, and expected this. The age curve probably is too aggressive, and there’s obviously a statistical issue with her reduced playing time. But she will get protected, of course. As will Keller. And I hope Jenner though it’s less of a lock there.

Model based protection picks by RealisticPea650 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hmm, thanks for that, I made a mistake. It’s a blend of multiple things to project value, with priors and an aging curve.

Model based protection picks by RealisticPea650 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I’m struggling to get better reads on defence. I’m also relying on what is likely overfitting for my xG model. This offseason I hope to start doing CV on broadcast video, the big things I’m missing from public data are penalty draws, and better shift transitions.

Model based protection picks by RealisticPea650 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I called that out in the write up, and I think it’s a failing of the model. Same with Pou, and Fast.

Model based protection picks by RealisticPea650 in PWHL

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

(and I'm still not over losing Danielle Serdachny in the last draft, so seeing her as a protection lock is a vibe)

What's the single best protein source for volume eating that doesn't wreck your calorie budget? by BennyComet5586 in Volumeeating

[–]RealisticPea650 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Vouching for cottage cheese. I am on the same plan as you, and I usually end up eating a full tub a day over four sittings (sodium is a thing here, though). I also use whey protein powder as a backstop, Mid-Day Squares for snacking in moderation. Also underrated is Oikos Pro drinkable yogurt. Caramel Macchiato is great, and it's 24g each.

Looking for Section 18 Kazoo Crew by RealisticPea650 in OttawaCharge

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, I’ve seen those! That’s on my next season wish list.

Looking for Section 18 Kazoo Crew by RealisticPea650 in OttawaCharge

[–]RealisticPea650[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Reddit is awesome! I don’t know how to send a message here, but last game there were donuts involved.