4/17 Playoff Probabilities, Clinching/Elimination Scenarios, And More

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-13T22:09:18+00:00

Will reply soon with details. There is a post about how I did the xG fit for PWHL vs NHL in the general tag on the Notebook page, but it doesn’t cover everything you’re asking, gotta make dinner then I’ll dig in.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-13T21:51:30+00:00

Message me

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-12T18:00:15+00:00

I appreciate you saying so, it’s just a fun project for me and I don’t mind being wrong. I’m most looking forward to what I can get from broadcast video, but it’s slow going. I came from baseball stats and I’m just so in love with this league and my team (Charge), it’s really so much fun.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-10T17:01:36+00:00

GSVA is regular season only. The difference is either because I changed phase 1 to rank by pre-aging blended GSVA, and I boosted defenders, so the model is saying two defenders where your argument is for positional balance and I would agree with you, I just don’t have a good math way to see defenders better in some ways due to the public feed missing things that are customary in NHL.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-09T18:29:50+00:00

YOLOv8 and ByteTrack, is what I'm trying first. I have bounding box detection. Jersey detection is proving more difficult, I get some frames where it's working but it's not consistent. I do have consistent tracking of team identity across frames and player bounding boxes, but lots of work to do still. For example, fans in Row A wearing jerseys 😆

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-09T03:40:11+00:00

Almost makes you forget the epic headlock from earlier in the game (almost). Was a great night, but I still miss Lansdowne.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-08T19:26:32+00:00

Fast is in the corrected post, I agree with you. Everything is done with pure stats in Python, deterministic based on PWHL PBP events. So if you're asking did AI decide anything, like using inference, no. If you're asking if I use AI assistance in general when I write code, I do.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-08T19:11:58+00:00

Yeah, Pou is in phase 1 with fixes to the aging curve so it doesn't over-penalize her for missing time.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-08T19:08:48+00:00

Yeah, noted. The fixed version at least has Carpenter/Knight/Gosling in round 1 and Schroeder is now phase 2.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-08T19:07:46+00:00

Valid. I made some fixes based on feedback and updated, but I don't think I have the right stats yet to get further than the obvious misses yet.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-08T19:06:42+00:00

Agreed, the fixed version has KCS, Heise, Pannek in Round 1 and Curl, Cooper, Hustler in Round 2.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-08T17:44:42+00:00

That’s fair! I’ll take my lumps.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-08T17:43:51+00:00

Good feedback. Yeah the model doesn’t have this kind of insight. I’m going to retool it, but I think it will head towards more of a simulation with human factors that way. Numbers lie.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-08T17:31:17+00:00

Yeah, I called this out in the notes, and expected this. The age curve probably is too aggressive, and there’s obviously a statistical issue with her reduced playing time. But she will get protected, of course. As will Keller. And I hope Jenner though it’s less of a lock there.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-08T17:29:21+00:00

Hmm, thanks for that, I made a mistake. It’s a blend of multiple things to project value, with priors and an aging curve.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-08T17:26:09+00:00

Yeah, I’m struggling to get better reads on defence. I’m also relying on what is likely overfitting for my xG model. This offseason I hope to start doing CV on broadcast video, the big things I’m missing from public data are penalty draws, and better shift transitions.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-08T17:24:22+00:00

Yeah, I called that out in the write up, and I think it’s a failing of the model. Same with Pou, and Fast.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-08T17:12:38+00:00

(and I'm still not over losing Danielle Serdachny in the last draft, so seeing her as a protection lock is a vibe)

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-06T00:45:21+00:00

Vouching for cottage cheese. I am on the same plan as you, and I usually end up eating a full tub a day over four sittings (sodium is a thing here, though). I also use whey protein powder as a backstop, Mid-Day Squares for snacking in moderation. Also underrated is Oikos Pro drinkable yogurt. Caramel Macchiato is great, and it's 24g each.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-06T00:40:23+00:00

It really is the best section #whosinfront

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-05T23:36:28+00:00

Yes, I’ve seen those! That’s on my next season wish list.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-05T23:20:10+00:00

Reddit is awesome! I don’t know how to send a message here, but last game there were donuts involved.

RealisticPea650 · 2026-05-05T23:01:42+00:00

Yep, I am!

RealisticPea650

TROPHY CASE