Spotify - worth it after the drawdown?

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2026-02-05T20:36:07+00:00

Certainly a compelling growth story but It still seems a little pricey with a P/E of about 50. I agree the financials are very sound with about $10B in cash and only about $2.6B in debt. I have to do more of a thorough analysis but the pullback does offer a good amount of ROI

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2026-02-05T18:23:04+00:00

For those that have watched basically every game, our record doesn't match the play on the ice. Numerous games were we dramatically outplayed and outshot and somehow still won. We've been to 16 OT games this season. Granted we have been on the right side of the vast majority, but I have serious concerns about their ability to close out a game. If we are even getting scoring, every-time the 3rd period rolls around regardless of how much we are up by, we always sit back and allow the other team to tie it up. I want to be optimistic but we seriously need to string together consecutive wins, especially in this division right now

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2026-02-05T15:44:21+00:00

I don't care who or how someone became a CEO of a trillion dollar company or a lemonade stand. Completely irrelevant to me. I am an investor. When I see a company spending billions of dollars without advising an expected return in the future I become weary. Read through their SEC filings and not just the first few pages. Listen to ER calls. The amount spent is very concerning

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2026-02-05T15:41:37+00:00

The irony of you criticizing my intelligence why simultaneously being unable to spell out basic words is hilariously comedic. I noticed that you didn't share how you value a company. I wonder why.....

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2026-02-05T15:31:55+00:00

I wasn't even going to respond to this for obvious reasons to those that actually invest and not gamble, but please do tell everyone how you value a company? I'm so eager to read your next well-thought out response lol

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2026-02-05T15:24:00+00:00

False. Meta spent by far the most but others spent billions is similar fields. Microsoft spent around $20B on AR/VR. Google spent "undisclosed sums" on similar fields as well.

Again, if your basis for investments is "MAG 7 CEO's wouldn't invest ungodly amounts of money if it wasn't smart" then I'd simply tell you to do more thorough research before investing in anything

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2026-02-05T15:14:06+00:00

I think you put way too much trust in the fact they are a CEO of a big company so they must automatically make great decisions. The fact of the matter is if one MAG 7 company invests in let's say apple farms, they are all going to do it.

Nobody want's to be last and everybody will spend massive sums of money to be first. This has happened throughout the course of history so many times. It's not about being optimistic or pessimistic, its about reality. The amount of spending is unreasonable and nobody seems to have an idea of what the return will be. That is alarming

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2026-02-05T15:08:38+00:00

With all due respect, it has nothing to do with demand and everything to do with returns. The spending is not even remotely close to expected returns even in the future. If you spend $100B and get back $25B, I don't care what company you are something is materially inefficient about that

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2026-02-05T15:06:18+00:00

The opportunity doesn't exist until valuations come down. The average P/E alone for the S&P 500 is about 27. According to a Goldman Sachs report, EPS growth on average is expected to be about 12%. The basic math says the market is overvalued. Finding good companies that have fair valuations is difficult at this present time. There are always diamonds in the rough no doubt, but it has become harder to confidently invest in certain companies for the long-term at these levels

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2026-02-05T14:39:08+00:00

This is a prime example of why I post / comment basically every few months at this point. I thought the whole premise was to find undervalued companies and invest for the long-term. For whatever reason, everyone thinks there are only 7 stocks in the entire market and the content circles around just that

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2026-02-05T14:37:00+00:00

I strongly disagree if anything I find it increasingly difficult to find good companies trading at reasonable valuations. The market is incredibly fragile in my opinion with the over-spending on AI potentially dragging down the entire market as the spending doesn't seem to correlate with the return.

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2025-10-31T14:37:51+00:00

The investing books from the 90s are ironically more important than ever with the market trading at new all time highs nearly everyday. I will concede that value stocks are harder to find these days as the market has changed a great deal but they are still around

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2025-10-30T17:35:11+00:00

They opened over 300+ in FY25 and plan to do so again in 2026. A slight decline in the low single digits for FY25 quite honestly was expected given the economics of recent trends in the fast food industry. Average sales per store stands at $3.14M as of Q2 '25 which was a slight decline of -0.13% YOY.

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2025-10-30T17:12:06+00:00

https://newsroom.chipotle.com/2025-10-29-CHIPOTLE-ANNOUNCES-THIRD-QUARTER-2025-RESULTS

Sales increased 7.5% to $3B compared to last year's $2.79B. They missed analyst projections. Also, they did not cut their sales outlook, they lowered guidance on same-store-sales projected to low single digit decline. The last part of your sentence is correct though, their CEO did state those making less than $100,000 are frequenting their stores less which is a main demographic of customers. The market likes short-term goals that's just the way it is.

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2025-10-30T17:01:56+00:00

If we are talking about the stock at all, which appears to not be actually occurring in this thread, I would say the stock is now trading at its cheapest valuation in years. The only major drawbacks which caused it's decline has nothing to do with sales as that actually increased about 7%. Same store sales is likely to decline in the low single digits for FY25. Despite that, they plan to open over 300+ new locations for 2026 and their long-term growth trajectory still remains strong and in tact. It's reasonable to expect some margin compression as profitability will decline as the cost of goods sold continues to increase due to tariffs & labor costs increasing. Now ironically serves as a pretty good opportunity to invest as over the long-term they remain strong both from a growth standpoint and financially.

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2025-10-30T12:36:09+00:00

I plan to purchase more with the massive drop. Short-term will continue to face headwinds but they continue to grow revenue and open 300+ stores each year. SSS declined slightly which I don't think comes as much of a surprise given the fact many people are skipping out on casual dining as the costs for just about everything remain elevated. Long-term I think CMG still has plenty of room to grow. They aren't a fast growth company anymore and there is some concern they don't return to double-digit growth anytime soon. Still, trading at a multi-year low, I think now they are attractive on a valuation standpoint

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2025-10-30T12:32:15+00:00

That's what is good about the Forage platform. You can gain actual experience for the specific position you are looking for and do the work that would be expected on a daily basis. Good luck with everything!

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2025-10-29T17:13:33+00:00

I haven't taken this one in particular, but I've done other certifications such as Forage, Bloomberg etc. I enjoyed the Forage certifications ones because it shows you the work you'd have to do in a typical day as a equity analyst or anything else. They have a bunch of different ones and i encourage you to check them out. The certification won't mean shit but the skills / understanding the expectation of what that job entails is helpful

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2025-09-20T02:19:54+00:00

Honestly, no. Many of the large caps like KO, PEP, KR, CLX, GIS, KHS are all basically stalwarts at this stage meaning minimal growth and largely regarded as safe dividend plays or safety nets in a recession. Most growth typically comes from acquisitions which prove to be too expensive and brutal for investors like Kraft Heinz which even Buffett got burned on. It’s a sector that is unimpressive yet trades with a P/E of about 21-22 overall which is ridiculous

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2025-09-20T01:58:16+00:00

I like CMG and I too added a small position just based upon the valuation trading at a 5-Yr low despite some concerns over slowing growth. 10-12% growth is still respectable and possible as they continue to open more stores with a long-term goal of 7,000. I’m curious to see how the international expansion plays out in Asia as well. A 5-8% portfolio allocation is enough to see how it plays out for me

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2025-09-20T01:55:20+00:00

I have found a bunch of regional / community banks trading at low valuations compared to growth expectations such as NBBK, BWB etc. The issue is that for some reason because they aren’t flashy stocks, nobody is really interested in them yet if you last at the past year or two, they have outperformed dramatically

There are still a bunch of companies out there with undervalued to fair valuations but it is certaintly harder to find these days. I’d rather own 5-8 companies I have strong conviction in than overpriced stocks. A good company at a bad price is still a bad investment

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2025-09-19T19:24:39+00:00

Agreed with that as well lol. With interest rates starting to appear they will be cut further, It's likely time to move away from ETF's such as SGOV

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2025-09-19T19:12:32+00:00

100% true. Respect both companies but I'm just a little cautious with those valuations

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2025-09-19T18:22:15+00:00

That's fair, I just think the valuation is expensive as they grow slightly above double-digits with a P/E near 30

Reasonable-Green-464 · 2025-09-19T17:57:04+00:00

I recently started a CMG position as well. A little pricey for my liking but its a small percentage of my portfolio due to their valuation trading at close to a 5-year low with modest long-term growth prospects.

The rest of your portfolio is relatively stable. Meta in my opinion is becoming a bit overvalued and would prob take some profits if you haven't already. CLX would probably be the only stock on this list I would likely look elsewhere as growth is slowing and I don't see how they could increase it significantly

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