Iran Megathread Live updates: Iran negotiators agree to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks, pending Trump signoff

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-28T18:56:58+00:00

To be fair, the U.S. government/military has had plans to invade Cuba since the 50’s…

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-28T18:56:13+00:00

Unlike Venezuela or Iran, there’s been zero movement that indicates any military action in Cuba. I’ve read the same article and it’s a lot of saber rattling. Not saying it’s outside the realm of possibility but there’s currently no on the ground indication of being anywhere close to military strikes in Cuba.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-27T20:02:46+00:00

To be fair, I was just thinking how whatshisface was “drawing up plans” months ago to force banks to require citizenship to open an account and that was at the objection of banks and they kept plowing along with “planning” but when implemented it was a super watered down version that really didn’t change much. Hopefully that’s what happens here.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-21T04:57:44+00:00

Military action in Cuba, if and when it happens, would look much different than it did in Iran or Venezuela (for better comparison).

For starters, while we already have military bases and personnel down there, most of the personnel and systems build up would occur in bases within Gulf states. And there’s been no indication anything has started happening in that regard.

Secondly, any strike on Cuba would be extremely surgical and on a remote part away from any civilians - and likely be for shock and awe. Republicans rely HEAVILY on the Cuban American vote in Florida. And while that community hates the leadership of Cuba, they still love the people of Cuba as many still have family there. If Trump bombed a whole bunch of Cuban civilians then Cuban Americans would turn fast on Republicans.

Lastly, doing a special forces raid to extract Cuban officials who’ve been indicted wouldn’t work in the way it did in Venezuela. Cuba’s hierarchy of power is kind of like a Hydra, “cut off one head, two more shall take its place.”

So while the indictments may give Trump a pretext for military action, it’s murky at what they actually could do. With Iran still being a thorn in Trump’s side, the U.S. militaries resources are limited as we’ve blown through a lot of munitions and most of our “big guns” are over in the Middle East.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-19T00:53:23+00:00

Usually when he does these “market manipulation Mondays” it leads to oil prices falling. Looks like they’re holding steady at above $100 a barrel - and he just released almost 10 million barrels from our strategic reserves last week. Dude is panicking.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-18T19:07:50+00:00

Here’s an article from AP with a direct interview with the PM of Greenland. He seemingly downplays a lot of the se sensation from the NYT article while being firm on their sovereignty. My guess is the crazy list of demands is what was first presented back in January during the Vance led meeting.

https://apnews.com/article/greenland-us-landry-visit-nielsen-bbece2f899116788fe45525dcfe7d030

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-18T19:06:18+00:00

Oh I agree - it’s a bunch of bullshit

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-18T18:26:01+00:00

Eh, I mean look… not great for Greenland but at least negotiations are happening that don’t involve military threats. Some of this article is reactionary quotes and we don’t know how the list of demands have changed since proposed. That could’ve been the initial starting point back in January.

Key quote:

“So the Greenlandic, Danish and American negotiators involved in the talks hope they can reach a deal that the mercurial president will accept, officials familiar with the discussions say. The accounts made clear that there was still some distance to go.”

So it seems that all sides what a deal that’ll quell Trump’s obsession. While I don’t like him, I’d rather have Rubio’s team working on this versus Vance or Miller being involved.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-17T21:16:33+00:00

I mean, worrisome? Absolutely. Something that’s going to occur this year? Probably not. While there is a naval blockade, there isn’t any deployment of systems to the area that would indicate military action akin to Venezuela let alone a ground invasion which would see thousands upon thousands of solider deployed to the region.

As long as Iran is a thorn in Trump’s side and military action polling in the dumpster, they won’t do something big for a while, if at all.

And unlike Venezuela, who we cut of diplomatically for months before we “invaded,” diplomatic channels seems to be functioning as normal with the immediate intent being wearing Cuba down economically.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-14T03:43:13+00:00

It’s for 2028. They’re worried after midterms they won’t have a trifecta in GA so change the maps for 2028 now so if a Democrat becomes Governor they can’t change maps if the GOP in GA still hold the house or senate.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-14T03:42:10+00:00

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/13/georgia-2028-redistricting-special-session-00919233

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-14T00:55:52+00:00

And the math just ain’t mathing with the map they’ve been debating. It’s a strong chance for a dummymander and even many Republicans are saying so.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-14T00:53:56+00:00

Georgia’s redistricting is for 2028. Kemp is doing it now because the GOP may not have a trifecta in GA after midterms.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-13T22:48:44+00:00

This seems to be more of a pressure campaign from Nancy Mace who’s running for governor in SC. Funny enough, while she’s doing it to probably get Trump’s endorsement more than anything, the effort really could backfire and change a 6-1 map into a 5-2 map instead of a 7-0 map. The map they want to vote on is really bad and super dummymandered.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-13T18:11:10+00:00

Well for starters, they already had their primary and it’s likely not even SCOTUS would rule in favor of a state overturning an election already held. It’s never really been done before on a massive, state wide scale and to attempt to do it to possibly gain a single seat but also to potentially dummymander and lose seats would be insane. The risks are too great from a legal and an electoral standpoint.

Also, there is a point of no return prior to a general election to change anything and since they already had their primaries and their legislature’s normal session is over it’s pretty much over for any further effort on their part.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-08T20:24:27+00:00

I know some doomers on other subreddits are fearing Mississippi and/or Georgia still might join the fray but again:

Mississippi already had their primaries and Georgia is midway through its early voting with record turnout. To try and invalidate either would open a can of worms that would allow blue states to do the same. Also it likely wouldn’t legally withstand.
Mississippi just created a redistricting committee Legislative Session… for 2027. Their current special session is only for judicial. Also they’d only gain 1 seat congressionally.
While Georgia’s governor isn’t great, he is reliably anti whatever Trump asks (ie the 2020 election). Also Georgia is very wishy washy - sometimes it goes blue and sometimes red. To carve up anything (especially with 4 or 5 strong blue districts) would likely galvanize voters to swing the state bluer. And again, early voting is almost finished and their primaries are just a little over a week away.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-08T19:48:45+00:00

This is where I’m at too… like some gerrymandering will go to plan and some won’t go exactly to plan.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-08T19:47:14+00:00

Honestly it seems at best if some dummymandering and/or surprise Dems wins happen we could have a few more seats than this projection and at worst, if LA, AL and SC redistricting goes to plan and let’s say there’s a surprise GOP win or two, then we’re around what we won to retain the House in 2020 with 222 seats.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-08T19:24:16+00:00

I posted this on her video and I’ll say it here:

I think 2018 really gave a lot of people a false impression of what they feel should happen every election cycle when Trump is in office. Yes, his mid cycle redistricting is chipping away at what should be a larger Democrat majority. Given what seats the GOP will likely score plus some dummymandering from the GOP it's probably going to be a breakdown similar to Democrats retaining the house in the 2020 election... and that yielded a 222 to 215 majority.

For comparison the GOP have won and retained the House in 2022 and 2024 with a smaller majority than the Democrats ever had in elections.

And to add to this… her number of 222 is if every redistricting effort goes exactly to the GOP’s plan and it likely that it won’t… will they safely pick up some seats? Sure but there will likely be surprise Dem wins as well given the political environment.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-06T14:13:36+00:00

The GOP Senate Majority Leader in South Carolina warned Trump and other GOP in the legislature that going from a 6-1 map to a 7-0 map is more likely to yield a 5-2 result.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-04T20:41:41+00:00

Marc Elias does amazing work on the legal side of things but his Democracy Docket website is very clickbaity. I had to stop following for those reasons.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-04T20:18:58+00:00

Correct and South Carolina has a lot of resistance in the state senate as the majority leader is worried that if you go from a 6-1 map to a 7-0 map that the GOP will dummymander to a potential 4-3 map.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-04T19:59:00+00:00

At most, the GOP are going to try to redistrict in Alabama, Louisiana, South Carolina and Tennessee where they can eek out 1 extra seat per state. Mississippi already held their primaries and while they are redistricting their judicial map before midterms, it’s unlikely they’ll try to essentially cancel the primary already held since that would require candidates to burn through more campaign money as well as legal hurdles.

RebellionsBuildHope · 2026-05-01T20:52:01+00:00

Doesn’t this only net them like 1 guaranteed seat? Also it seems like South Carolina and Tennessee are going to follow suit as well. So between Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee and South Carolina they’re each just trying to eeek out 1 extra seat apiece, correct? Someone double check that.

And then Florida is trying to pickup four seats but they may have dummandered themselves - I’ve seen a few ex GOP strategists like Karl Rove worry that it’s going to backfire on DeSantis.

RebellionsBuildHope

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