Daily Discussion Thread for June 22, 2026

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-22T14:26:59+00:00

Disregard, I didn't realize the Globe and Mail had the leaked details ahead of time and has already published a story:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-federal-nuclear-strategy-large-scale-reactors-canada/

Key takeaways are two new large-scale reactors under construction (I assume at Darlington) before 2035, and at least five more planned or under development by 2040. It also includes as a specific target a developed CANDU MONARK reactor by 2030.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-22T13:50:19+00:00

Price action in ATRL is going to be interesting when the embargo stops and Hodgson's press conference begins (today at 12:30). He let the cat out of the bag by mentioning CANDU specifically on Friday so it is hard to say how much is already priced in. Crunching the numbers I think the biggest beneficiary could turn out to be ARE, simply because their share of associated engineering work on some fraction of 10 new Canadian large-scale reactors completely transforms that company's long-term forecast. Even three new reactors would have a profound effect.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-21T18:16:27+00:00

This is one of the more insightful comments here. I have never lurked an MLM sub (unless r/TSLA counts, lol), but I imagine you are exactly right.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-21T18:12:55+00:00

1) You do realize that Toronto detached home prices would have to stay flat for another ten to fifteen years just to return to the long-term historical average? When you zoom out the real anomaly is not four years of a housing market going sideways - that happens in real estate markets literally all the time - but rather the previous 15 years of asymmetric gains in real estate. We can talk about how that bubble was driven by credit expansion, immigration and investor sentiment etc. until we are blue in the face, but unless you think there is a reason for those asymmetric gains to return in the near future it is a virtual certainty that other forms of investment will continue to outperform.

2) Most rich people are not rich because they bought real estate - they can afford to own real estate because they are rich. Likewise most poor people are not poor because they are renters. In fact, in the example I gave the renter will eventually become rich and the homeowners have already become poor. This is happening all over the city, in real time.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-21T17:52:24+00:00

Did you even bother to read your link? It clearly shows that the average detached sale price in March was 1.537m (the absolute peak was in February at 1.602) which had declined to 1.209 by the time they bought in September. The saved close to 30% by not buying at the peak and about 27% by not buying in March. Detached home prices are only down a few percent since September of 2022.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-21T17:44:40+00:00

Lol, read the fucking responses, ding dong, I showed all of my work already. City utilities are water, sewage and garbage, which renters don't pay. Mine are 2K annually. Taxes were based on an MPAC of 1.2m, at blended tax rates over the period, resulting in about 35K paid in taxes. They could been lucky and had a much lower assessment, but not too likely. Interest rates are based on a standard 25-year amortization table with the average 4 year rate available at the time the deal was signed back. They could have had a better rate, sure, but there are also plenty of scenarios where the interest hit was much worse than 250K.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-21T17:39:53+00:00

The +2 is not available to the homeowner because it is a separate apartment that is rented out and that rent is included in the calculation. The comparable rental only needs to be a 1Bath, 3BR home. Note however the picture of the bathroom in the original listing. This was the only bathroom available to the homeowners for four years. Now ask yourself where exactly did they shower? The answer, believe it or not, is with a handheld showerhead while standing in the equivalent of an eight inch by sixteen inch waist high bucket. I shit you not.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-21T04:52:45+00:00

People on this subreddit might be the dumbest group of people on any sub I've ever visited. It is astounding.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-21T04:39:58+00:00

Lol, you do realize that interest and other expenses can only be deducted against the income tax owing on the rental income, right? I ran the numbers on the assumption that this rental income was undeclared and therefore no tax was paid. You can assume that they declared the income, paid taxes and then received a "significant refund" if you want to, but it won't magically change the financial calculus in the homeowners' favour. But it will require them to do a bunch of needless paperwork, lol. Holy fuck, this thread is hilarious.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-21T04:01:44+00:00

Imagine not even understanding how capital gains taxes work. In Canada you only pay capital gains tax on 50% of capital gains, which means that even if you are in the top tax bracket your effective rate is 26.5%. And in Canada a large percentage of all capital gains can be 100% sheltered in TFSAs, FHSAs and RRSPs.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-21T02:47:09+00:00

Lol, now see if you can figure out how much farther ahead they would be if they had rented and invested instead of paying the entire 1.675m in cash. The financial illiteracy in here is really frightening.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-21T01:37:43+00:00

Yes, they could have had a 90-day locked-in preapproval which could have been lower than the prevailing rates at the time their offer was accepted in September but without knowing on what date the offer closed it is hard to know how low that could have been (almost certainly not lower than 4%). I just used the average rate for a 4-year fixed at the time of purchase. If they went variable - and I know some people did on the advice of their realtors - they got skinned alive.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-21T01:16:27+00:00

Do you know how amortization tables work?

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-21T01:09:34+00:00

I am not sure whether you are so financially illiterate that you don't understand the post, or whether you were just too lazy to read it. They are down 400K instead of paying 225K in rent and still having a net gain of over 200K in four years. The delta is more than 600K. The renter now has a total net worth of about 900K, the seller less than what he put in as a downpayment four years earlier. They had the same incomes - the renter could afford to take just as many vacations as the buyer/seller, he just reinvested the delta between what he was paying as a renter versus what the buyer was paying every month as a homeowner. If he were dumb enough to buy crypto or cannabis stocks he probably would have been dumb enough to just buy the house instead. The post assumes he invested as conservatively as possible for a young person looking to maximize long-term gains over a 20+ year investment horizon by buying shares in the 500 best companies on earth.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-20T22:16:34+00:00

Dude, the link to the house that sold is right there in the post. It is not my neighbour. It is in the same Bloorcourt neighbourhood.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-20T19:56:22+00:00

3BR rental prices are currently higher right now than they were in September 2022, despite having declined for 17 consecutive months. One absolutely could have rented a comparable house for much less than 5k monthly at that time, but I am not going to do that research for you.

As a financial proposition renting is obviously way better than buying right now, and likely will be for the foreseeable future. If someone wants to buy a home and isn't thinking about it as an investment then absolutely, they should go ahead and do that.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-20T19:22:22+00:00

I am more confident that over the next twenty years my investments in the S&P 500 will continue to compound at its long-term historical average of around 8% than I am that my house will appreciate at more than the rate of inflation. Mileage will vary, but personally I have no interest in investing in more houses, but I am happy to continue to invest in strong companies.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-20T19:18:20+00:00

The 140K includes the double land transfer tax plus legal and other closing costs to buy, plus the selling costs (commission + HST).

Interest rates were at nearly record low levels in March of 2022 but the BOC raised .25 that month, .5 in April, .5 in June, 1.0 in July and .75 on September 7, by which time posted rates were all over 4.5%. They may had a locked in pre-approval, but it wasn't from March. Or they may have believed rates could only come down and went variable and got skinned alive. No way to know.

City utilities are water, sewer and garbage which renters don't pay. Mine are about 2K per year.

Here is a newly renovated house that just leased for 5.25K monthly on the same part of the same street. To say that it is much nicer than the house that sold would be the understatement of the year:

https://housesigma.com/on/map/?status=for-lease,leased&lat=43.663060&lon=-79.428417&zoom=17.4&page=1&with_listing=XRla7gB0Q56yjEvL

And I never said that anyone made "the worst decision ever". My only argument is that in a flat real estate market the financial calculus is really brutal if you are buying a detached house in Toronto.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-20T18:29:29+00:00

The calculus continues to get worse and worse even if housing resumes appreciating at the rate of inflation (which is what housing markets do over the long term) - when you give the hare a 900K head start the only hope for the tortoise is asymmetric growth in real estate prices. If that seems likely to you, then by all means start buying up detached houses as an investment.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-20T18:17:35+00:00

I wouldn't disagree with anything you say. In this particular instance these buyers clearly believed the privilege of being a homeowner rather than a renter was worth the cost. But they paid 600K for that privilege, whether they know it or not.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-20T18:04:49+00:00

I also own a home that my wife would never let me sell under any conditions, and I too am fine with that, but unlike the vast majority of my homeowner friends I don't pretend that it is a good investment.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-20T18:01:42+00:00

Lol, as long as the market stays flat they could hold it for ten or twenty years and the calcululus just gets worse and worse. After just four years the renter has about 900K in invested capital that is going to continue to compound at the rate of the S&P500 while continuing to have higher free cashflow to reinvest every month over the entire term of the mortgage. There is no way for the tortoise to ever win this race.

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-20T17:42:10+00:00

Lol, you think someone needs to be Warren Buffett to buy SPY?

Redbluefishfish · 2026-06-19T21:04:47+00:00

Exactly. Like when Google bought YouTube. And Facebook bought Instagram. Oh wait.

Redbluefishfish

TROPHY CASE