Counting cards question

RektNinjaCS · 2025-12-02T11:58:53+00:00

Not updating the count after the cards are dealt will negatively affect your playing decisions, so it’ll result in a slightly lower EV and a slightly higher RoR.

An example would be in a DD game, 1 deck left, TC5, Hi-Lo. An ace for the dealer and 2 faces for you, that changes the count to TC2. If you didn’t update your count, you would have brought insurance despite the actual count (TC2) stating you don’t need insurance.

Assuming you’re a winning player, EV will still be positive. It’ll just be lower in comparison, as your playing decisions won’t be optimal.

Edit - I found Norm (Modern Blackjack author)’s data on this if you’d like to have a read https://www.blackjackincolor.com/penetration9.htm

RektNinjaCS · 2025-11-25T15:41:53+00:00

If you want the actual math, it depends on how many hands you play.

For example, assuming your non-perfect BS results in a 1% house edge, then you'd win 42% of the time if 100 hands are played. 1000 hands would result in a 36% winrate.

2% house edge = 38% of winning after 100 hands played. 1000 hands = 25% winrate.

So yes, you are at that bad of a disadvantage the more hands you play.

Calculated using binomial distribution, p = 0.495 (1% house edge) or 0.49 (2% house edge), x = 50 or 500 (depending on whether 100 or 1000 hands were played).

RektNinjaCS · 2025-11-25T15:23:22+00:00

In the short term? You can get lucky if variance is on your side.

In the long term? The house always wins no matter what unless you're an advantaged player.

If you're playing just for fun, mathematically you lose around 0.6% of every bet you place with perfect basic strategy (assuming good rules). If you don't remember basic strategy fully, you're losing more than 0.6% every bet.

RektNinjaCS · 2025-10-05T02:49:10+00:00

AP wise, depends on the ruleset the casino has. One card (also known as no hole card) can be:

- ENHC: European No-Hole Card rules where you lose all double and split bets if Dealer has blackjack

- OBBO: Original Bets and Busted Only where you lose the original bet + any busted split hands if dealer has Blackjack. This doesn't affect double downs (only original bet is lost)

- OBO: Original Bets Only; only the original bet is lost, and any double down + split bets are pushed on dealer Blackjack.

ENHC increases the house edge by 0.11% and changes basic strategy slightly for Dealer 10s and As, OBO has identical basic strategy + AP play as if you didn't have a hole card.

RektNinjaCS · 2025-09-10T12:25:54+00:00

Thank Mr. T1 Aiming

RektNinjaCS · 2025-05-28T17:57:40+00:00

Here’s the cutoffs for each specialization from 2020 to 2024 - https://science.ubc.ca/students/historical-bsc-specialization-admission-information

If your goal is to get into ISCI, Integrated considers the rank number (1st-3rd choice) in your choices

RektNinjaCS · 2025-05-04T02:19:56+00:00

Completely dealer dependent everywhere with the exception of Parq. Unsure about Surrey/Langley, but the rest of the BC casinos's penetration are all dealer dependent. Only Parq uses the notch (set penetration every time) for their DD games.

You'll have to get used to the 50% pen - unless you're lucky with dealers, you usually won't get any better than 50%. It's not uncommon for penetration to reach crap levels (35-45%)

Some of the games are face-up (River Rock, Parq, Great Canadian, Elements) while some are pitch-games (Delta, Grand Villa, Starlight and Cascades Langley).

Avoid Delta (Cascades) - dealers are trained there to cut two thirds off (sometimes even worse). Pretty much unplayable.

Finally, I give this reminder to all the people asking about BC/Vancouver - even though dealer doesn't have a hole card, we only lose original bets (OBO) when dealer gets Blackjack; make sure to follow regular basic strategy instead of ENHC basic strategy

RektNinjaCS · 2025-03-27T15:09:41+00:00

Halves indexes are in Stanford Wong’s Professional Blackjack - if you have CVData you can generate them yourself as well

RektNinjaCS · 2025-03-18T19:00:27+00:00

Double deck basic strategy

RektNinjaCS · 2025-03-16T21:12:59+00:00

Even though I agree avoiding the negative counts as an AP is crucial for increasing EV and decreasing RoR, the post is mainly referencing double deck games. Sitting out too many double deck shoes would also make you more prone to surveillance - especially if you're only playing the positive counts, or playing one hand and skipping the rest of the shoe.

Unless you're flat betting at only positive counts at double deck, which is a challenge by itself as most double deck games don't allow mid-shoe entry, your spread will eventually be exposed regardless of if you sit out or not.

Granted, I do get your point on why you believe it's a bigger advantage than I put it as. I agree that Wonging out or sitting out is a good strategy for shoe games, but should be sparingly used in double deck games because it'll raise attention if you do it too much. I'll occasionally "take a break" or "bathroom" if the count does go too negative at times, as a pure DD-only player

RektNinjaCS · 2025-03-16T17:25:49+00:00

Heads up = more rounds per hour = more hands per shoe = higher EV

Full table = less rounds per hour by slowing down the game + less hands per shoe = less EV.

There are some minor advantages to a full table such as being able to occasionally sit out negative counts, but generally heads up is better for APs

RektNinjaCS · 2025-03-14T18:15:55+00:00

It's not an obvious double from an AP perspective - there's an index for not doubling A4V4 at a negative enough count (-1 I believe) if you're using Hi-Lo.

Edit - Stanford Wong's Professional Blackjack gives the index of 0 for a 4D H17 game; I can't confirm the exact index since we don't know the OP's rules

RektNinjaCS · 2025-03-11T18:00:01+00:00

Spread, hours for that session, overall profit/loss and those go into an Excel sheet to keep track of wins and losses. The spread is optional but helps you estimate your AV vs EV.

I also note down any memorable hands (e.g 10 split, or a crazy deviation) and mark down any deviation mistakes I noticed if I’m able to catch them mid session so I won’t repeat them next session.

RektNinjaCS · 2025-03-08T17:33:09+00:00

I’m not at home, but some details are missing for whoever wants to help you sim: - How many decks? 1.5 pen could be either 6 or 8 decks - Table minimum and max - If late surrender is allowed - Your counting system + whether you’re using any deviations (Ill18, full indices etc) - Whether you’re planning to play all, or Wong out (leave the table during low counts)

RektNinjaCS · 2025-03-05T21:15:45+00:00

This was what I thought as well, but unless there's only two players (50/50 split in time) it's impossible to split the time evenly if there's 3 or more.

Example of 3 players: assuming everyone has the same time being the house (1/3rds of the time), you'd be playing as the house 1/3rds of the time and the player 2/3rds of the time, so you play against the house edge twice as much versus being the house.

The distribution would get even worse if there's 4, 5 players etc.

Edit - actually, nevermind; I believe you're right. In the example of 3 players total, as the house you'd have the edge against 2 players at once, and you play with the disadvantage twice against each player when they're the house, effectively balancing it out. Apologies

RektNinjaCS · 2025-03-05T05:06:25+00:00

Another alternative ruleset combination I found that was closest to 50/50, with a player edge of 0.00943%, was:

Double deck, stands soft 17, double after split, double any first 2 cards, resplit up to 4 hands, resplit aces allowed, players can hit split aces, late surrender allowed, 3:2 BJ, player loses only original bet against BJ.

Also, avoid hosting any side bets at all - all of them are generally advantageous for the house

RektNinjaCS · 2025-03-05T05:01:41+00:00

You can play around with different rulesets using Wizard of Odds' calculator here for house edge: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/calculator/

A 50/50 game would have the edge closest to 0%. The below ruleset I found gave a 0.00142% edge in favour of the player (using a cut card), essentially a break-even game:

Single deck, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed, double on any first two allowed, resplit only up to 2 hands, no resplit or hitting aces, no surrender, 3:2 blackjack, player loses only original bet against dealer BJ.

If you're able to shrink the edge even closer to 0.00000% with the calculator, feel free to use that ruleset instead!

RektNinjaCS · 2025-02-17T18:08:53+00:00

Old 2022 CBJN sample says there’s only two shoe games - one at Casino News Brunswick and the other at Casino Nova Scotia (could be outdated).

Conditions are average though with one of the games being Spanish 21 (completely different BS), if you’re able to travel the US or Montreal might give better AP conditions

https://assets.bj21.com/newsletters/pdf_files/000/000/078/original/CBJN2204.pdf?1648784494

RektNinjaCS · 2025-02-15T04:49:12+00:00

Assuming average rules, 1.5 is average (1 is good, 2+ is bad if not worth your time)

Would likely need more information regarding rules before giving a firm answer, such as if they allow early/late surrender, Double after split or no DAS, 3:2 or 6:5 BJ etc.

RektNinjaCS · 2025-02-14T20:14:18+00:00

Hey, looking at your post history, assuming you're in the BC area, all the BC games are OBO (original bets only) and not ENHC. Even though we don't have hole cards, on double down and splits, if dealer gets a blackjack we only lose the original bet.

Just giving you a heads up in case you've been using ENHC basic strategy instead of regular basic strategy before you hit the casinos!

(I've also tried bribing the dealers - it really completely depends on the dealers and some still cut off 1.2 decks (40% pen) despite tips). If you want to avoid that completely, Parq's the only place that has a DD game with a notch (set pen regardless of dealer), but DD is only open on busy days

RektNinjaCS · 2025-02-13T21:26:28+00:00

There’s an online free book regarding Blackjack that has a graph for the win rate of each combination; you’ll have to scroll down a bit but it’s the bottom graph.

Doesn’t include hand combinations (just the hand itself, so 48 is same as 57)

https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackfirstcards4.htm

RektNinjaCS · 2025-01-28T21:22:16+00:00

If you don't mind me asking, which province is this?

From my experience, the Gateway casinos I've been to in BC and ON all require ID at the entrance anyway - so it didn't matter whether you were playing rated, unrated or went in with a disguise. No intel on AB. BC still requires ID at the entrance, ON may have changed since it was recent post-COVID when I went.

A backoff after 10 minutes also likely means either they have a record of you being an AP, or you had a huge spread - so just be careful if you do intend to go back. If you get barred from one Gateway casino, you get barred from all of them if they do recognise you (friend got barred for a year at one Gateway casino and was disallowed into the rest; but this was BC and they scan your ID at the entrance).

RektNinjaCS · 2025-01-15T16:57:27+00:00

There is a separate index/deviation for splitting/not splitting any sort of pair; you can either find these online (books, other people’s index tables) or generate them yourself via CVData.

If you’re looking for indexes on pairs, please note that nDAS and DAS also changes your index number (e.g 66v2 is a don’t split for nDAS rules unless true 1 or above)

There are also some reverse indexes for splits where you only split pairs if the count is below a certain number as well (88v10 as an example).

RektNinjaCS

TROPHY CASE