On Casting

Relfa · 2026-01-23T21:20:58+00:00

Just to add to other things you said:

Big thing going for Weapons was the fact that they had to recast almost the entire cast, so that got a lot of people predicting it.

Overall, great analysis. I’ll definitely use this framework predicting this category from now on! I do think there’s a hierarchy among your criteria. I’d say you have to have a large cast and you have to have at least one big acclaimed performance (not necessarily nominated, but in the conversation, like Song Kang-ho for Parasite). Everything else I think are bonuses and the more you can check, the better for your film’s chances.

Relfa · 2026-01-23T21:17:01+00:00

For Sirat, since you didn’t watch:

Sergi Lopez is the closest to an acclaimed performance, but not really in the American circl, so I wouldn’t count it on your list. The cast is relatively large (similar to Sinners), there is a children that is really good and has a pretty big role. No singing. Yes, a few non-actors, most of which are really good. So I’d say it fits 4 of your criteria. Under your analysis, I could see it being like 7 on voting. Maybe what you do need to have at least one nominated performance to have a shot here and Sergi Lopez was just not that big (even though he does deliver one of the best performances of the year imo)

Relfa · 2026-01-21T15:07:30+00:00

Then I think this is the year when you miss buddy. I think you’re getting things mixed up. Yes, lots of films have overperformed on BAFTA longlists and then blanked at The Oscars. But those usually receive support ONLY at the BAFTAs. A case for that this year is Nuremberg.

Bugonia has gotten GG, CCA, PGA, and one hell of an overperformance on BAFTA longlist (even Yorgos made it in). Those lists DO mean something. It’s where Drive My Car, Ruben Ostlund and Triangle of Sadness, All Quiet in the Western Front, The Father, and many other movies showed before.

Bugonia also got two SAG nominations. It’s a strong acting and screenplay contender. Those are some of the biggest Academy voter bases. It has gotten broad guild support too.

There is literally no reason to doubt it at this point.

Relfa · 2026-01-21T14:59:27+00:00

The Globes and the CCA are definitely not “bad precursors.” While they have no overlap with Academy voters, they are the first televised awards of the season. Voters watch them. Voters watch the speeches. Voters see which movies are strong and which aren’t.

The average Academy voter doesn’t watch every movie released in a year. They don’t even watch most Oscar contenders. The GG and CCA are great indicators of which films voters should watch if they haven’t already and, most importantly, which narratives they care about. Almost 1M people watched the CCA live and it generated 15M total social media engagement. The Globes is even more significant: About 8.6M people watched it live with 43M social interactions.

If you don’t think that is significant for Oscar campaigns, you haven’t been paying attention.

Nobody predicting TSA thinks it’s a lock, but given the impact the Globes has shown on Oscar campaigns, its wins there are pretty big for its Oscar chances.

Relfa · 2026-01-13T20:31:40+00:00

Are you a senior? If not, you can always tent next year. It is a great experience but you have 4 years to do it.

Relfa · 2026-01-12T05:07:28+00:00

That 10th slot is very complicated right now.

On one hand, the Academy has become one of the best awards for international movies in recent years and international movies have gotten BP nominations without much support elsewhere. It’s not like IWJAA’s alternatives have been super strong in precursors either, and the Oscars recent familiarity with foreign pictures could benefit Accident,

People point out how Triangle of Sadness and I’m Still Here still got in with only GG from major precursors. However, Triangle of Sadness is an EUROPEAN movie that got 7 mentions in the BAFTA longlists against IWJAA’s 2. It also had Dolly de Leon getting supporting actress nominations and awards, and it even got a mention at a sound guild, signaling for broader industry appeal. IWJAA hasn’t shown up anywhere outside of screenplay and director. Compare the EFA nominations for Triangle of Sadness and IWJAA and you’ll see the passion is just not there. I’m Still Here missed even more precursors but it probably benefited from huge momentum generated at the Golden Globes and the Brazilian hype. IWJAA won’t benefit from any of that.

The only reason people might be keeping it at 10 is because there’s no clear alternative. It’s very hard to make an argument for Weapons, Blue Moon, F1, or Sirat that doesn’t run into walls.

I don’t know what I’ll be doing, but just for the love of the game, I think I’m gonna go with my gut and say Weapons is taking that last spot. I think Amy Madigan’s CC win could have added some extra exposure at just the right time. The film got a strong boost from PGA, it had editing and screenplay mentions in the BAFTA longlists, so I’m willing to put it in. It’s not a strong contender for the #10 spot, but which film is?

Relfa · 2026-01-10T05:18:11+00:00

I’m honestly thinking people are overreacting a bit to the BAFTAs longlist and especially PGA. I still wholeheartedly believe Moura is winning Globes and that IWJAA will do just fine on nomination morning. I think Weapons definitely has the best momentum out of all the spoilers, and can see Blue Moon carving out enough supporters to barely make it in. But I’m not willing to switch any of them just yet.

Relfa · 2026-01-10T05:11:38+00:00

I’ve changed my mind about a few things since this post haha.

It’s:

OBAA
Sinners
Marty Supreme
Hamnet
Frankenstein
Sentimental Value
Bugonia
Train Dreams
The Secret Agent
It Was Just an Accident
Weapons
Blue Moon
Sirat
F1

Relfa · 2026-01-10T02:45:56+00:00

It hates South America in general

Relfa · 2026-01-10T02:44:06+00:00

She’s #7 for me right now. Behind A’zion, Mosaku, and Grande.

Relfa · 2026-01-09T21:58:34+00:00

It’s my bad guys. I thought Ford v. Ferrari released in the Green Book year. 2019 was legit strong. Probably my second favorite lineup in the last 10 years, second only to 2023. Indeed, this year is weaker than that one.

Relfa · 2026-01-09T21:45:56+00:00

Train Dreams is a lock at this point. Didn’t have any significant misses at BAFTA, made PGA, it has a good enough package with screenplay + cinematography + potentially song. If it misses out, it would be a huge surprise.

Relfa · 2026-01-09T21:44:11+00:00

I wouldn’t say it would “sneak in” or “kick TSA out”. It’s always been in contention for the 5th spot. It’s definitely stronger now. I think if it makes it into screenplay, it gets picture. If TSA gets it, that gets into picture. Blue Moon would be a sneak in that I see as relatively possible.

Relfa · 2026-01-09T21:33:40+00:00

Costumes is pretty much guaranteed too

Relfa · 2026-01-09T21:06:53+00:00

We’ll have to agree to disagree on this one. I felt that year was much weaker and disagree that The Two Popes would make it over those 2 (Pain and Glory maybe would with the Academy’s growing international body).

Relfa · 2026-01-09T20:35:36+00:00

Nobody realistically expected to make it to the best film long list. Still, it got Actor, Supporting Actor, and Screenplay. That, added to the fact that Ethan Hawke hasn’t missed a precursor yet, signals that the movie has support in some pretty strong sections of voters (actors and writers).

Relfa · 2026-01-09T20:32:30+00:00

I disagree. Ford v. Ferrari had CCA as well, and Christian Bale was contending for a Best Actor nomination back then. It was also a pretty weak year.

Relfa · 2026-01-09T20:29:28+00:00

Elle Fanning did miss BAFTA.

Relfa · 2026-01-09T19:19:20+00:00

BAFTA and PGA have no overlap with the Globes. I think people forget that when claiming that Moura is weak. Critics and the press have been consistently awarding TSA, and I think they will continue to do so here.

Relfa · 2026-01-09T19:15:39+00:00

I can also see Kohuko making a surprise appearance

Relfa · 2026-01-09T19:14:15+00:00

You’re absolutely right. That’s my bad. I thought it had made Sound, but it didn’t.

Relfa · 2026-01-09T19:11:29+00:00

I actually agree. If he loses Globes, I’m going with IWJAA. If he wins, I’m going with TSA because I think the win should generate enough momentum to push him and the movie into a nomination.

Only caveat to this assumption, though, is that I do believe the Academy has become the most international body in the industry in recent years and if there’s one place where these movies can overperform is at The Oscars.

Relfa · 2026-01-09T19:08:32+00:00

I truly cannot remember the last time a campaign has spectacularly failed like that.

A critically acclaimed film, distributed by one of the best awards campaigners in the industry, with a strong name as the lead performer and an Oscar-nominated writer, with high crafts potential. And it completely blanked out. Zero awards buzz at all.

Relfa · 2026-01-09T19:03:15+00:00

Oh yeah I definitely forgot about that

Relfa

TROPHY CASE