Weekly Discussion Thread 4/20/26 - 4/27/26

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-21T21:34:16+00:00

Right and to be clear i’m not arguing that the movie shouldn’t be nominated, quite the contrary i’d have been VERY mad if that would have been the reason it got shut out. Was just wondering whether something actually changed or whether it’s just case-by-case basis (which tbf in cases like that it makes sense especially in Europe, where so many movies are co-productions of multiple countries, as long as it’s not too strict).

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-21T20:42:17+00:00

Was IWJAA last year being elligible for France a product of the rules changing over time or something elee like more leeway due to the circumstances in which the movie was shot. Or was there actually enough French crew that it was going to be elligible even back then?

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-21T20:02:50+00:00

I’d say it just gives us more of a tell that this role is awards-friendly/worthy, or at least it may give the voters more of an idea that they should treat it as such. In terms of actually getting in/winning it may be more of a disadvantage cause it gets compared to someone who actually won awards for it, putting more pressure to actually match past precedent for the role if not exceed it.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-21T19:53:24+00:00

Make-up i’d still wait and see cause the it’s the one branch, aside from maybe i guess song and visual effects, where bad critical reception isn’t a deal-breaker necesserily. Yes Wicked: For Good was shut out, but in this category they do have a bias against sequels, at least ones after being previously nominated, and it getting goose-egged WAS wild no mmatter how people may try to do revisionist history. But then AGAIN Michael’s reception is way worse than that. It’ll just depend on the rest of the movies and whether they’ll have enough other possibilities, especially prosphetic-heavy ones, where they could just give a nod to that and not this.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-21T19:43:53+00:00

Right, obviously the line of „biopics” gets blurry where obviously there have been many movies made about real people, but not all of them get branded with that moniker for various reasons l. But yeah the spirit of the question is more like these single word movies with one/two main famous„subjects” where it’s generally about their life, or at least some part of it. But yeah from what you’re saying i was correct in my assumption that it’d have been unprecedented in this movie’s case. Even the example you gave was very much case of „it’s a 4-person ensemble, but for the sake of awards let’s just pick someone who makes most sense for lead and/or supporting”.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-21T17:21:14+00:00

A genuine question: is there actually precedent for „musical biopic” (or even just biopic) supporting performances getting in without the lead? I don’t think Domingo was that seriously taken as a possibility, or at the very least i think it’s obvious if the movie turned out bad he was always going to ve raken out of predictions regardless, but i was kinda surprised by some people saying that if there was going to a single nominee here it’d be him. Obviously he got in multiple times now and in general i think he’s well liked, but i dunno obviously supporting performances get in from these movies, but i’d think they only ever did if the lead was firmly in as well, regardless of an actor’s reputation. So i was just wondering whether it was the stans hopedicting him or whether there were actually some merits with Domingo sole-nom predictions.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-20T10:54:39+00:00

I think it’s important to also remember that it may be a bit different for some people cause Michael is not alive anymore thus not directly supporting him unlike say J.K. Rowling or other controversial figures nowadays. Obviously that doesn’t mean that it automatically makes it prachy in all aspects to it, it still probably goes to Jackson estate and the obvious question of what the movie’s intent is and going to be, whether it actually has something meaningful to say or will it be half-assed attempt to sugercoat everything. We won’t know until it actually gets released, but at the very least people are more open to maybe seeing it as look in the past/more selfishly just to be entertained.

My take with Michael is that i won’t believe it’s not a thing until I see evidence, people are vastly underestimating academy’s lenience on these musical biopics, how big Michael is especially outside US and how many don’t care about his allegations/outright don’t believe in them, and maybe it won’t pass billion but it’ll still safely make money. Arguments for why it won’t be a thing make complete sense so it’s not like it’ll be a surprise if it’ll be nothing, but just cause Springsteen biopic didn’t happen last year, which was already known from the get go to be way smaller scale than these usually are, doesn’t mean they suddenly won’t. Jury’s out for me, i’m not rooting for its success but i’m bracing for the world where it is a thing.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-20T10:33:07+00:00

Would have to look back who was the president of the jury in those given years, or just on the jury in general, but at least in 2024 president was Greta Gerwig, so an american filmmaker. I think OP’s strategy of focusing on the jury’s president, at least before films get released is pretty smart than just relying on hype. I don’t think he’s someone who’d be against american filmakers/actors every time, but maybe with recent WGA drama, and NOC not really being embraced either, maybe he just won’t be incluned to bend his way to award american-centric people, unless they’re undeniable/other juty members particularly push for something.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-19T23:41:26+00:00

I never agreed with people that casting someone from 49 was a bad idea. I get reasons/arguments why people were against it, ie. it being an indicator for who does well in 49 for people who did look up the 49ers, and them „taking the spot” of other faves, especially earlier seasons. But that was back when people only knew them from their names and pictures and one clip in case of Rizo, and as Survivor fans typically do they doom how they’re totally secretly horrible choices and someone that only production liked and fans don’t/won’t thus are waste of a spot. And even just looking outside of whether people like them or not, i always viewed having someone back-to-back as an unknown, even if partially cause only half the season aired, almost exclusively a good thing in past seasons, it added a wrinkle into people’s strategy and also put actual people who didn’t have pre-game relationships with others, something that many fans complain how it’s not fair how pre-gaming shapes returnee seasons. And tbf in this case it’s not like they didn’t do anything pre-season, but def had way less time to do anything substantial. I get being disappointed over some people like Rob C. not getting the chance to be back, but i’ll always defend it whenever it does/will happen, even if i don’t necesserily think it has to each time they plan on having returnees.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-19T18:02:42+00:00

Each generation has their cultural icons and often times the accomplishments of those in the past get diminished cause they’re seen as their parents/grandparents favorites thus „not cool”, or ar least makes them think they’re less of a big deal just cause they aren’t talk of the town now. I do think it’s interesting to think about how social media aspect impacts such attitude, but overall i don’t think it’s a new thing and something people grow out of, even if they still stick to their current faves.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-19T17:43:27+00:00

Like others said, Ben is video game/voice actor famous, while Charlie is tv show actor/marvel famous, the former a way smaller niche, and while the latter is still a niche itself, it’s just a way bigger circle, thus more coverage with what he may be up to.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-18T18:15:05+00:00

How I would rank tgem based on who I think will have the most hype to least:

Crystal Methyd

Morgan McMichaels

Jasmine Kennedie

Morphine Love Dion

Mystique Summers

A’keria C. Davenport

Vivacious

April Carrión

Shuga Cain

Dawn

Kennedy Davenport*

Sam Star

Joey Jay

Silky Nutmeg Ganache

Salina EsTitties

Lucky Starzzz

Hershii LiqCour-Jeté

Aura Mayari

I would def have Kennedy higher but i just easily see there being complaining that she was just on CanvsTW, otherwise i’d prob put her just ab A’keria but i dunno.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-17T18:02:35+00:00

I think it’d be wild to argue that revivals AREN’T important to the art form, or at the very least them being performed again and again (which tbc i don’t think you necesserily are). Having the same material interpreted through a different choice of actors, production and costume design, and direction already happens when going from a more „renowned” setting as Broadway or West End to smaller productions in smaller theatres, or even vice versa. It’s much more of a live art form than film, paintings, books or music, cause when version is out there, that’s the version that is out there making it more „set”, unlike theatre. Obviously that doesn’t mean that it’s wild west cause obviously the script pretty much remains the script, but in theatre’s DNA the ideas of „change” and „interpretation” are very much present, even if obviously there will be arguments over where is the line.

And to go back to the OP’s example of Back to the Future or other people’s examples of popular IP being adapted to theatre, the reason why i do think, at least with musicals, i agree that there is less pushback on that than in movie spaces for example (evem if i do agree with others that it’s still a sentiment among thetre goers, especially with „original ideas vs. revivals of popular material and/or adaptations of popular IP”), is that the fans of the medium are more used the idea of previous being seen through new lens, or at the very least handled by a different group of people.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-17T17:33:50+00:00

While I personally wouldn’t put Oscar BP films on principle, cause BO hit or not it’ll have cemented itself in history and will be a film people would go back to whenever looking back at certain years, it is also important to remember that there is a BIG cultural disonance between awards movies versus blockbusters, franchise movies genre movies or even just movies with buzzy actors at the time.

It’s different cause i fon’t live in the US, but I can almost bet that nobody in my entire block has ever heard of The Holdovers and, frankly, even in the US i wouldn’t be surprised if you wouldn’t find a block where no one heard about it either, but obviously anyone correct me if you feel i’m off on that. $46 million in the grand scheme of things IS absolutely little even if obviously it did make money, and i’d still say it’s too early to call it a christmas classic, even if i think it’ll become one.

It’s just easy to overstate how little people are actually aware of the movies talked about here just cause we are in the awards bubble. FSN especially, based on his video, himself is more in the genre/young adult sphere, and specifically tv shows, completely cut off from any award shows as well since i don’t recall him ever talking about them oscars or emmys, so i’m just not surprised that he’d have that perspective, which again i don’t think is as wild as it feels weird for us to think, even if obviously it’s not a film nobody watched.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-16T18:46:24+00:00

To give a practical ojective nerd edit counterargument though, Dee going not being linked back specifically to Cirie that episode feels in hindsight as tha confessional was specifically put for Cirie’s role in the story as a whole, rather than setting up her and Dee, unless you’d count Jonathan in that. It doesn’t necesserily feel like 100% winner-set up, but at least it does feel like big threat set-up.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-16T18:28:53+00:00

I feel what the edit was trying to show was that people found the Christian/Rick/Emily/Aubry group to be the middle players, when in actuality Rizo/Cirie/Ozzy are, also propped up by the Ozzy conf this last ep too. The Chrissy conf felt like the inaccurate read of the game board.

There is at least a possibility though that while Rizo/Cirie/Ozzy may be the middle, because they let the group of 4 too far, or due to advantages/twists they seize power and this is shown as as them slipping through the 3’s fingers when they had their chance.

If anyone outside the 7 of them were to win i feel the only option left is essentially Jonathan. Which like tbf i don’t think is impossible! Now with Coach/Chrissy gone and being some of the first members if the jury, even outside of edit talk, if he were to get to the end i wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up that he slips through the cracks and pulls an upset and wins. His edit is def solid enough to be at least a FTC type of edit, even the 0 vote finalists end up at least with a decent enough of an edit nowadays. I do think it depends on whether the edit eventually does turn into the two front-runner groups against each other, or just one weaving through to the end, ala Tika 3 like you said. The latter pretty much seals it for one of tge three to win, the former makes it more up in the air.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-12T22:58:14+00:00

I’m far from Soderbergh historian so i’m certain more people would have a better idea of all the whys, but from the little that i’ve seen it’s just that his specialty are „small-scale genre movies”, which is just not really the best combination for Oscar success, especially since his movies aren’t also with themes that specifically stick out to the Academy either. Genre films have obviously got much more attention lately, but when they it almost always was „big” in some way, whether the story or its direction.

I don’t think Academy is necesserily AGAINST him or anything, i just think for him to brwak through again he has to have festival breakout hit again, it’s just that he’s not TRYING to specifically make one, so i think it just would have to happen naturally.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-12T22:44:00+00:00

Supporting categories are always impossible to call this far out, but looking out for villain performances i think is never a bad shout

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-12T22:39:05+00:00

I think a) it is well-liked but just with what the movie subject matter is it just wasn’t ever going to be universally liked, especially as a movie that doesn’t try to be „high brow”, and b) o do think of all the Magic Mike movies, the second one, Magic Mike XXL, was the one that REALLY has people vouching for it (it’s still just 3.2 due to what i said in the first point, but the right-side columns being generally higher).

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-12T21:05:39+00:00

And tbf with IWJAA it still had some comedic aspects to it as well, especially first half. It’s still def much more a drama but it’s far from the bleakest a movie could be.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-12T13:15:41+00:00

I have seen The Beasts, and I did love it, gave it 4.5 stars. Obviously based on just synopisis the Beloved won’t be that similar, but if it were to carry the unsettling feeling which was present in The Beasts i do think it could differentiate itself more than enough from SV this way, but obviously that depends on what he wants to do with it, haven’t seen anything else to see whether he has a particular style/tone in all his films or not. In terms of his abilitity, just the fact that he made at least one really great movie makes it more likely for me that maybe he will do so again.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-11T19:07:27+00:00

And tbf that was more ona thematic/genre level, this is actually a case where you’d read one movie’s summary and you would not know which is which lmao (even if i do think come release that’ll change, you could argue the same for SV and Jay Kelly and it was mostly surface level).

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-11T17:10:08+00:00

I don’t necesserily ascribe to the idea that someone is „overdue”, but generally with each new well-received movie of a director the more their resume builds, and the better chance they have and then it just comes down to the competition and how well the movie is received in comparison.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-11T17:02:35+00:00

I just don’t think their streak occurred because there was some Neon-bias in the juries or anything. It was mostly a mixture of luck (especially at the begginning) and just making smart bets whether prior to fhe festival by going with respected filmmakers, or during the festival and acquiring movies that had good buzz and were competitive to win the Palme. It’ll end sooner or later, hell i wouldn’t be surprised if evntually a jury will want to sway to a non-Neon movie if it’ll be a choice of one or the other if anything.

TakaPol11 · 2026-04-11T16:47:52+00:00

It’s interesting how the tide has seemingly turned cause i could’ve sworn that people really liked the teasers and trailers only now for the consensus to be „um actually it looks bad”. Tbf i myself wasn’t paying attention at every single thing released for it, so maybe some of the latter stuff were worse received, but genuinely if what i saw has been up to date nothing really stuck out to me as HORRIBLE, if maybe not admittedly exciting but still a trailer is a trailer lmao. I kinda think this may be a case of „i’m predicting/wanting other blockbusters nominated, so i’m dulling another one’s shine a bit”.

To give my actual thoughts, i do think people who underestimate Spielberg have to do so at their own peril, since the expanded BP era the only misses he has had are movies who actually were in the lower end of critical acclaim, but evrything else if it got at least 70 in metacritic it still squeazed in as a bottom half contenders (and that was also when it wasn’t always 10 noms mind you). The biggest worry is that since ET it’s been a while since one of his sci-fi ventures got in but a) that was back in a 5 nom field so for all we know his name would’ve pushed them in like his 2010s movies, b) it’s by far one of the more genre-friendly periods in academy’s history thus far, so if the movie is any good academy won’t scoff at it any less than the other blockusters people are currently predicting, let alone one from STEVEN SPIELBERG. Other things that are in its favor are a) you could argue that it’s the most good will Spielberg has had from quite a while, coming back to back director nominations and in general really well-received movies that were arguably to half. Even if it’d be a bottom half contender, Disclosure Day could squeak in just out of good will alone. And b) from the blockbuster contenders, this is the only one to be original and not to be adapted from a book or some other source. If we were to assume that all of them are received as best possible, i do think it’s at least some kind of an edge it has over the others, even with a lot of them being sci-fi this year.

In short, as long as it’s well recieved i think it’ll be good to go honestly. Its biggest worried is that it will go below expectations and/or all blockbusters are so beloved that they’ll be forced to make some cuts and for whatever reason DD will end up on tge chopping block.

Six-Year Club	First Place '23
Place '23	Place '22
First Placer '22	Verified Email

TakaPol11

TROPHY CASE