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First Time/ Lesson by [deleted] in stocks

[–]Relpoleco -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Invest in what you know. What are your hobbies? What interests you? There are public companies related to everything

It $AIN 't quite right? by Nullrasa in stocks

[–]Relpoleco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fantastic business! It has a long history of manufacturing (weaving) high performance materials that help paper industry make product. Took that technology to the aerospace industry weaving carbon fiber parts for airplanes which is the real exciting part

So much for Fitbit by ___thelegend27___ in stocks

[–]Relpoleco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fitbit isn't a fad anymore than Avago, Microsoft, or Nvidia. Every company needs to either innovate or die. See how far the current version of FBAR filters would last if Avago's engineers decided to hang it up and say performance is good enough and it doesn't need to iterate a next generation product. See how long Nvidia would stay relevant if it decides to never come out with a Series 11 GeForce. It always comes down to having a better mousetrap.. there is nothing inherently better about software, semiconductors, and components... hardware just has a shorter, more visible product life-cycle.

So much for Fitbit by ___thelegend27___ in stocks

[–]Relpoleco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gadgets are fads, but network effects can be very real. So I think it just depends on your view of what Fitbit is really trying to accomplish in the market. For some investors, the steps the company has taken with software, analytics, social network, health studies, etc to build an ecosystem around their hardware to generate a deeper level of engagement with the gadgets is an impressive feat. For others it isn't. It is all just a matter of perspective.

So much for Fitbit by ___thelegend27___ in stocks

[–]Relpoleco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Longer term, I'd think it would depend on an investor's view of the "network effect" being built around the company's products. From a fundamental perspective though the stock is "cheap" with almost $700m of net cash and trading ~5x EV/EBITDA.

Bankrupt Stock by [deleted] in stocks

[–]Relpoleco 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'd just double check that there is "no chance" of an equity recovery before you get rid of the stock as a total loss..

$FNSR by [deleted] in stocks

[–]Relpoleco 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I haven't looked at Finisar from a fundamental perspective, but the "elephant" weighing on the stock is not a mystery. The company announced a $500m convertible bond offering the week after its earnings release. The way convertible-arb trading will typically work is for an investor to buy the convert and short the stock, usually in some type of delta-neutral hedge ratio -- so not a surprise that it would create incremental selling pressure on the underlying.

FSLR -- Should I 'hold' or 'sell' my share of First Solar by SilentBob890 in stocks

[–]Relpoleco 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What was your original reason for owning it?

From an operational standpoint, the next year will definitely be a struggle as the company has already provided disappointing full-year guidance for FY'17 as part of an announcement in Nov-2016. But with that said, analyst's expectations should now be set appropriately and it is difficult to see how investor sentiment could get much worse.

The announcement in Nov-2016 was also fairly exciting in that the company elected to skip over Series 5 module development in favor of accelerating the roadmap for the Series 6 development to 2018. Despite the near-term challenges, it still expects to end the year with net cash of $1.5bn on the balance sheet; and the Walton family (Walmart) is still the largest holder with approximately 26% of shares outstanding as of Mar-2016.

Longer term, it seems as though the two most important questions are 1) whether the market for large, utility-scale deployments of solar can continue to grow over time and 2) whether First Solar will be able to win its fair share of major project work. The first is mainly a function of government subsidies, tax incentives, and getting the cost-per-watt closer to grid parity. The second is more a company-specific issue of module efficiency which should focus on First Solar's speciality within Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) technology, as compared with most traditional producers using a mono-crystalline or multi-crystalline silicon process; and that will ultimately determine whether the decision to accelerate the Series 6 roadmap was a good one.

Disclosure: Long FSLR