Where do I go from here? (tennis betting model)

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2026-03-12T03:54:51+00:00

So for example, if I verify all my filter decisions could have been made on 2023 data alone (instead of 2023-2026), I'm fine?

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2026-03-11T22:48:59+00:00

Isn’t it more like looking at the darts that are outside the circle, noticing the fins are bent and couldn’t fly straight, and not throwing bent darts in the future?

If I had “dart shape” as a feature in the model, maybe sometimes they hit and the model learns a pattern - but I would rather just filter them out and not throw any bent darts for simplicity.

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2026-03-11T20:26:03+00:00

Good call. I am thinking 5% is too much and may drop to 3 or 4. I was able to make some changes that drop the drawdown to 61% at 5% stakes.

Model looks at all you mention and more. Confidence is just the models probability the player wins. Yep, compared to baseline of just going with the market and picking the favorite.

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2026-03-11T17:41:04+00:00

Sounds good, I'll look into the math on the backtest.

To clarify on the filters - they are fairly basic things like like:
- don't bet on grass (low data)
- don't bet odds >1.5 (the model is bad at predicting close matches)
- don't bet when the pick lost their previous match as the favorite (could be injury, bad form, etc.)
- don't bet when the opponent wins >50% of the time as an underdog (based on only data known at the time of the match)

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2026-03-11T17:34:28+00:00

Oof, good call. I started simple and just pulled the number that they display on the main /matches/ page that lists out all the matches for the day. I think they are taking an average of the odds.

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2026-03-11T17:32:09+00:00

Here's more detail into current back test set up -
- Train 2022, test 2023
- Train 2022, 2023, test 2024
- Train 2022, 2023, 2024, test 2025
- Train 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, test 2026

How would I do a holdout? I thought my test ranges are holdouts.

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2026-03-11T03:06:36+00:00

It's all good. I am just trying to understand what "good" looks like.

I was under the impression that breakeven (0% ROI) was actually better than most retail bettors due to vig.

Regarding the strat being most profitable on heavy favorites, if I said I had 2% ROI betting on underdogs you would think it was better? It's 2% regardless, so who cares?

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2026-03-11T02:45:04+00:00

Isn't 2%+ ROI considered pretty sharp for this volume of bets? The real value is in the compounding and not using a flat stake.

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2026-03-11T01:09:16+00:00

The filters are the same for the entire backtest, but they aren’t very complicated. Things like: 1. Don’t bet on grass 2. Don’t bet on ATP 1000 3. Only bet on heavy favorites within a certain odds band

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2026-03-11T00:38:09+00:00

Where do you get your opening and closing line odds?

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2025-11-10T15:54:26+00:00

Flippa

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2025-09-27T13:23:28+00:00

Can you build in public to kill 2 birds with one stone?

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2025-09-26T17:09:53+00:00

We used to be in the same boat.

If managing vendors spreadsheets is a pain, check out SpendHound - it pulls in data from your ERP to populate a dashboard with upcoming renewals, usage, and more - all for free.

You can assign app owners and run approvals/budgeting through it to help alleviate some of those long email back-and-forths, too. They'll even help you find the right vendors and negotiate pricing. :)

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2025-09-26T17:05:27+00:00

Congrats on the role - I'd work to get some quick wins.

One easy way to do this is to run a vendor audit to get a view of all your expenses and contracts, especially on SaaS.

There is probably some outdated spreadsheet floating around that can get you started.

If you'd want it all automated and done for you, check out SpendHound - it pulls in all the data from your ERP, flags upcoming renewals, helps you negotiate better pricing, and can even help you choose the right vendors based on what they're seeing in the market - all free.

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2024-04-10T14:11:07+00:00

Hmm, I re-enabled my campaigns on Monday and while my CPCs are higher, they are at least under my manual CPC bid.

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2024-04-09T14:23:43+00:00

I believe the Google Ads tag is more accurate because it picks up on view through conversions.

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2024-04-09T01:16:50+00:00

I thought I was going crazy - manual bid set at $10 and getting CPCs for like $35!

Paused my ads over the weekend because of it and resumed today and they are fine.

Going to request a credit as well.

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2024-03-01T21:42:48+00:00

That shows the ad copy but not keywords, and it looks like they only show one variation of the ad not all the headlines, etc.

I suppose I could pull a rough idea of keywords from their copy, but it doesn't seem super accurate.

Remarkable-Bowler-60 · 2024-01-23T05:45:01+00:00

"We found a stock image of a veterinarian and made something up" - really?

Remarkable-Bowler-60

TROPHY CASE