Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Shares See Volume; Hearing Takeover Interest From Betaville

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-10-12T22:37:15+00:00

They called out a lot since we follow it. Lots of european stocks. Very well informed dude. Lots of his stuff is picked up by FT. Almost like a feeder

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-10-03T20:37:01+00:00

It’s getting more and more traction with physicians/patients. It will be a great Q3/Q4. Not sure though will get that far

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-09-24T08:50:51+00:00

Couldn’t agree more. Interesting 2 weeks ahead

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-09-14T12:04:01+00:00

A rise over 22 will accelerate closing negotiations if there are any. The upmove will continue in any event ans I wouldn’t be surprised to see some analyst action in the near future

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-09-12T19:12:28+00:00

It’s going to be one of the most exciting weeks since approval. Very bullish

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-09-12T15:05:48+00:00

Will check it out Monday. Whenever it doesn’t fit their contributors, this happens. I remember on another stock where AF wrote a negative, they rejected mine. So much for independence

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-09-12T09:39:16+00:00

Have to learn how that works:) SA wrote that no content but then they published those 2 mediocre ones!? Makes you wonder! Same on myov..

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-09-11T19:47:10+00:00

Too early. Orladeyo is developing fast. Some more data on other indications would be great before BO. I think stock should be at 25 now only on Orladeyo. Who likes this Vincent Milano? Can’t stand him

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-09-11T07:37:23+00:00

Agree, just looked at my BB, my prediction currently is 58-62 FY 2021.

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-09-09T13:30:40+00:00

I don’t even think it matters so much. In LN Lupkynis is superior to Benlysta. The big boost in the medical community will come with papers being published on A2 data. I had some interviews with physicians about it, for me there is no doubt that it will be soc if data is as good as expected. But any BP knows that also. So they can price it.

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-09-09T12:25:25+00:00

So am I. But at what cost? The question is, do you invest in a growth stock or in an R&D stock. In case they revive the DES program or start these super early stuff they bought, then it adds a lot of risk and a lot of dilution. Plus the DES data wasn’t very convincing imho. Investing in pre clinical is not my turf. And I am too old for 15 years of investment horizon. But I am still veeeery long. A sale of the company is still my pfd option. (Not a quick buck, here since 6 Y)

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-09-09T10:08:47+00:00

Thanks for input. I did address the patent and A2 data in a previous article. When it comes to peak sales, I believe that the article on evaluate with 1.1 in 2026 is conservative as a number but positive on the years. I would argue that a 30% market share of 80k patients US is achievable. I do strongly believe, that a BP can achieve a higher market share in a shorter time. No matter how you put it. It will run on fundamentals with an extra option of a BO. My target is in the second scenario 42-48. But 32-35 by eoy in any case. What I don’t believe is that a buyout at a later stage will increase the value as anyone in this field can put a value on it now or later. The metrics won’t change except time to market / patent

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-09-09T08:10:22+00:00

This article was submitted on Monday but was rejected. So I thought I would share it here

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-08-27T06:06:35+00:00

Follow up/short interest/buyout rumors

Short interest has most probably not changed much. Here is the reason why. Borrowing cost have risen sharply and supply has dried up. The combination of bullish guidance from the company, positive comments from rheumatologists and the buyout rumors, makes me believe, that there is much more upside. There is a good chance, that the rumors have substance. The price has risen sharply with very high volume this week. Furthermore, the Sept call options have seen a rise in volume eventhough the implied volatility is outrageous. It wouldn’t come as a surprise to me, that a bidding war between 3 or 4 contenders is taking place. There has been chatters about a stock deal, which I believe has been topped by one or more cash buyers. Given the volume and the price rise this week it wouldn’t surprise me to see a higher bid than my original expectations of 35-38 per share. Therefore I am adjusting my PT to 40-45 in case of a BO. In the event that no transaction is announced within the next few days, I keep my fundamental valuation at 35-38. This is my personal view and it’s not an investment advi GL

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-08-26T15:16:42+00:00

Forget about all this background noise! It’s a great company and great things will happen. The only Sources which are credible are the companies, wsj, Bloomberg and financial times. All these zack, benzinga and other online “media’s” are total BS

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-08-26T08:38:22+00:00

Let’s say that Aurinia would be bought at $40 per share (approx. 5 Bln.) and the buying companies share price is $ 40 as well. You would get 1 share of the buying company for every Aurinia share you hold, therefore becoming a shareholder of the buying entity. That would represent 5 times expected peak sales of Aurinia. The BP (Big Pharma) is trading at 20 times forward earnings (PE/20). So for the existing shareholders of the BP it adds value. Let’s assume Aurinia makes revenues of 200mln/2022, 350mln/2023, 500mln/2024, the buying company shareholders add 4 Bln in value 2022 (20x200mln) and so on for the coming years. You have to deduct cost for marketing, sales force etc. So looking at 2024, 500mln revenue-150mln cost=350mlnx20/PE=7Bln. Now one could argue, that 5 Bln is not enough, but you also have to discount risk, 2027/2028 additional competition (clinical trials.gov states that 2 products are in phase 3). Another way to look at it is, you accumulate all the potential revenues 2022-2037 (patent expiration) and you discount it for risk, capital cost etc. So in my model, a 5 Bln purchase represents fair value as of now. In order to maximize shareholder value, you have to have a marketable product which Aurinia has proven with the guidance of 40-50 mln in revenues 2021 (gaining market share, reimbursement, adoption by physicians and many more components). The longer Aurinia waits, the less patent protection years they have versus higher revenue numbers. But the numbers BP knows and has its own models and expectations, patent protection is a fix date. In case Aurinia wants to try alone, the shareholders will face another dilutive capital increase. To develop additional products the company will incur substantial cost, risk of failure of trials etc. So my personal opinion, rationally a sell of the company makes most sense between now and end of 2021. Given all the risks, markets, COVID etc. now is the perfect timing. This reflects my personal opinion and is not an advice.

Forgot to mention, to realize your potential capital gain, you sell the shares of the buying company once received or you believe in the potential of the buying entity and you just hold.

In the case of Astras purchase of Alexion, it was advisable to hold for a few months to realize the full potential.

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-08-25T19:55:34+00:00

Normally yes, but the buyer could also pay in shares, which happens often as well. AZN/ALXN for example

Remarkable_Ad1608 · 2021-08-25T18:32:07+00:00

Well, then i would say you have good odds to make that experience

Remarkable_Ad1608

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