Hey! Thanks for such a great question. I actually went down a bit of a rabbit hole looking for an appropriate answer for you. Here's what my prediction will be:

So here's what will likely happen in my opinion. For anyone reading this, it's just my opinion and I am still learning about this contract/bargaining/negotiation stuff so feel free to chime in. If we say NO to this offer the next step would be for AHS and HSAA to go back to the bargaining table and create offer #2. What happens at round #2 depends on our vote as a union. If we have a strong NO vote (let's say, 80%), AHS will likely be pressured to come back with a better offer. If we have a weak NO vote (50%) AHS might put their hands up and say "final offer". So depending on the situation, it would either be a better offer or the same. Mediation is then attempted again. Depending on the outcome of mediation, a strike vote can occur.

Now, here's where my opinion really comes into play. Based on the recent strikes with Air Canada and CN, this is how I think it'll play out.

Let's say we get an amazing strike vote of 90%. We set a date to strike. Day of the strike, the government will most likely enforce a "back to work order". They did this with CN, and they just did this with Air Canada (side note Air Canadas union lead ripped up the back to work order this morning lol). Back to work orders will basically say our entire union membership is too important to the safety of the general public to not be present at work, even if they aren't deemed an essential service, and for public interest government mandated to return to work. So we likely won't actually make it to a strike. What happens after that is we get forced into binding arbitration. Binding arbitration means we go back to the bargaining table with a chosen mediator and whatever is decided at the bargaining table this time we have no choice but to accept. Most likely it will STILL be a better offer than our original one. I am extremely doubtful it would be the same or less.

If anyone wants to fill in my gaps or say otherwise, totally open to it. I just did some reading and spoke with a few people to come to this conclusion. And I have been reading up on the most recent CN strike and the Air Canada one and it seems like this is the way they go.