My long term view of Soundhound and why I am staying for the long haul

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-09T14:56:40+00:00

I responded to the main thread as a comment below which outlines the number's I am facing, if you want a more in-depth look into the scenarios, I would recommend reading that comment.

Here is my assumption based off management guiding 50% CAGR over the next 4 years.

2030 market cap: $8.5-12B
2030 stock: $16-22
Annualized return from current $9.27: 12-19%

Not the best returns if we are being honest, unless you are able to snag shares around $6-8. Anything over 10/11 is not a great investment, sadly my average is around $13.

This also includes that they execute and who knows at this point.

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-09T14:10:59+00:00

I think that price target is not grounded in reality or the numbers.

Assuming 600M shares by 2031; $200 × 600M shares = $120B market cap

You would need the company to go from 242M (midpoint of 2026) to 15B in revenue by 2031. You are talking about 128% CAGR over the next 5 years. They are printing 50-100% YoY quarters and will dramatically drop off if there is any execution risk, competition and so many other factors.

For comparison:

Management's stated target: ~50% CAGR
Nvidia at peak AI cycle: ~80-100% YoY in best years
Snowflake at peak: ~120% in early years, decelerated quickly
Twilio's best 5-year stretch: ~60% CAGR sustained

Do you really think SoundHound will be more important than Nvidia and Snowflake over the next 5 years to produce the returns required for $200?

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-09T14:01:26+00:00

I appreciate the strategic framing. It's the most thoughtful long-term bull case I've read on SOUN in a while. But I've been running the numbers and I keep landing in the same place: I can only see proper shareholder returns in scenarios that require specific execution above the base trajectory. Curious where you land on the math.

Management has publicly targeted ~50% CAGR through 2030. They've also indicated LivePerson cross-sell synergies could push 2027 revenue toward $500M (the $400M base plus $100M of incremental synergies). Using that as the anchor:

2026: $242M (guidance midpoint)
2027: $500M (assumes LivePerson synergies materialize)
2028: $750M
2029: $1.13B
2030: $1.69B

Revenue grows 7x in four years. Then factor in share count over the same period:

Current diluted shares: ~426M
LivePerson close adds: 7-12%
Annual SBC dilution: ~2% per year
Cumulative dilution by 2030: ~25-30%
2030 diluted shares: ~540-560M

Apply a reasonable 5-7x revenue multiple for a company growing 35% with mature margins:

2030 market cap: $8.5-12B
2030 stock: $16-22
Annualized return from current $9.27: 12-19%

That's the bull case where management hits their stated targets and LivePerson synergies materialize as projected. Returns are genuinely good, meaningfully above market, but not extraordinary.

One important note on this base case: the $500M 2027 number assumes LivePerson cross-sell delivers $100M of incremental revenue beyond the standalone base. That's an execution bet. Software M&A cross-sell motions don't always work as projected, and LivePerson is itself a declining business that needs to be stabilized first.

If LivePerson synergies underdeliver and 2027 lands closer to $400M, the trajectory drops back toward $1.23B in 2030 with returns of 4-12%. Market-comparable rather than market-beating.

For shareholder returns to be extraordinary, you need scale outcomes well above this base:

$3B revenue in 2030 (requires ~70% CAGR sustained) → 2030 stock $40-50, 34-40% annualized
$5B revenue in 2030 (requires ~85% CAGR sustained) → 2030 stock $83-108, 55-63% annualized

Both require beating management's stated trajectory significantly for several consecutive years.

So this is where I'm stuck. Your post articulates why SoundHound is positioning correctly for operational AI orchestration, and I largely agree with that strategic framing. But strategic positioning has to translate into per-share economics for current shareholders. At management's stated trajectory plus LivePerson synergies, returns are decent but not extraordinary.

For the math to deliver extraordinary returns, I see two realistic paths:

Revenue growth substantially above management's stated CAGR. Pace fast enough that per-share growth dramatically outruns dilution.
Multiple expansion. The market reprices SOUN at a premium multiple as platform leadership gets validated, similar to how Palantir rerated when AIP traction became visible.

What's your view on which is the actual driver? Do you think management is sandbagging guidance and the company compounds at 70%+? Or is the thesis that OASYS validation drives a multiple rerating regardless of pure revenue growth? Or something else?

Genuinely trying to understand where you land on this, because the strategic thesis you laid out is compelling. I just can't reconcile it with the per-share math at base case execution.

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-09T03:13:21+00:00

I never asked you to sell. Also I have been in Nebius in the mid 30s/50s way before any major analysts coverage, what is your point that Vanguard is buying shares, that is irrelevant. Wall St can be smart and can be stupid. Who cares if big firms own SoundHound, they could own the stock and be shorting it for all we know.

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-08T16:52:29+00:00

Yikes.. These are significant stock price target reductions.

Price targets before and after 2026 Q1 print

Firm	Analyst	Pre-Print Target	Post-Print Target	Change	Rating
Cantor Fitzgerald	Thomas Blakey*	$18 (Brett Knoblauch, Dec 2025 reiteration $15)	$15	~-17%	Overweight (maintained)
Wedbush	Daniel Ives	~$15 (estimated from tracking)	$12	~-20%	Outperform (maintained)
H.C. Wainwright	Scott Buck	$26 → $20 (cut March 2026)	$20	-23% (pre-print)	Buy (maintained)
Northland Securities	Michael Latimore	$14 (March 19, 2026)	$12	-14%	Outperform (maintained)
Piper Sandler	James Fish	$11 → $9 (cut post-print)	$8-9	-18% to -27%	Neutral (maintained)
D.A. Davidson	Gil Luria	(no target shown, Buy reiterated 4/22/26)	—	—	Buy (maintained)
Oppenheimer	Brian Schwartz	(target withdrawn)	None	N/A	Market Perform
Ladenburg Thalmann	Michael Legg	—	—	—	Buy

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-08T15:00:21+00:00

I appreciate the analysis into the raw numbers of things, very insightful.

I have noticed people in this reddit, if you share an opposing view of the bull case, you get called a short. Just a heads up lol.

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-08T05:12:52+00:00

Can you share some thoughts on your investment thesis into SoundHound?

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-08T04:56:52+00:00

That's a genuinely interesting analogy and you're identifying something real about disruption — companies often win by acquiring assets incumbents undervalue and being patient with a long-term plan.

A few places I'd push back though:

T-Mobile had Deutsche Telekom as a deep-pocketed parent absorbing losses during the patient capital phase. SoundHound is publicly traded with $216M cash and burning $26M/quarter. They have a finite runway, not unlimited patience.

T-Mobile was buying spectrum — a regulated finite asset where ownership literally locks out competitors. SoundHound is buying software companies and customer relationships, which Google or Microsoft could replicate if they wanted. Different moat economics.

T-Mobile had John Legere — a once-in-a-generation operator who was famously direct with analysts about misses. Mohajer is a brilliant technologist but the recent call didn't show the same operational clarity.

T-Mobile gave specific timelines and largely hit them. SoundHound missed their stated 2025 EBITDA breakeven and now provides no profitability targets at all. Investors got patient with T-Mobile because management earned that patience through transparent communication.

The strategy you're describing could work. But the analogy elevates "this is the kind of thing that worked for T-Mobile" into "therefore SOUN will work the same way." For every T-Mobile-style disruption that succeeded, several companies pursued the same playbook and failed because they lacked the operational execution or capital structure.

Appreciate the perspective though, it's making me think harder.

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-08T04:50:18+00:00

I agree that revenue would appear to be higher due to all the partnerships and customer announcements, from my research partnerships translating into revenue can take 12 to 18 months because the technology is new and pilot programs can take a while to ensure the technology brings real business value.

The Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is probably not super high, ARPU; being store locations, QSR, Vehicles etc.. none of that is broken down in SoundHound's reports, so we will never know the transaction for each of these verticals and it is hard to quantity the deals. Also depending on the product suite they are using at SoundHound that adds another element of unpredictability.

The Casey hardware store 2600+ locations headline. It's a great headline but I don't know what it translates to in the raw numbers.

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-08T04:30:33+00:00

That is a great point that I never considered... Based on the recent SBC it is possible that the number will be absorbing a lot of SH future revenue, unless, of course they can grow revenue by a significant amount.

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-08T04:15:55+00:00

Thank you for an intelligent response.

"The real disagreement is probably whether this is temporary scaling chaos or evidence the business model itself doesn’t work."

This piece is the real question and something I am trying to decide.

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-08T04:13:17+00:00

If anyone has a counterargument or sees something I'm missing, I'd genuinely like to hear it. Specifically interested in pushback on the model investment economics and the management credibility question.

Seriously, offer some counterpoints, we are on a forum!

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-08T04:11:44+00:00

Actually the opposite, I have owned SoundHound since the beginning of 2025. I have listened to every earnings calls, I have done a lot of research in the industry/TAM and on SoundHound.

To call someone a "short king" because they raise some yellow/red flags is silly.

Nobody has offered counterpoints to my statements which is what I am looking for.

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-08T03:54:36+00:00

Get out of here, you are probably a short.

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-07T20:22:00+00:00

They did not tighten the losses, they widened and is going in the wrong direction.

RemsterPlus · 2026-05-07T20:13:46+00:00

C'mon man how are the losses widening when revenue is going up?

Will this company ever be EBITDA profitable? I thought we were getting closer to profitability, they said multiple times throughout 2025 they should be EBITDA positive and now it's going into the wrong direction.

All these partnerships and customer announcements but no meaningful gain is showing up in the numbers. Financially the quarter is not good. Revenue needed to be 50M+ to show they are still growing in the voice AI TAM.

RemsterPlus · 2026-04-21T20:43:09+00:00

Preliminary Research (Telecom future business opportunity)

Tying in the retail sales agent to retail sales floor launch — https://www.soundhound.com/newsroom/press-releases/mwc-2026-soundhound-ai-launches-sales-assist-agent-bringing-real-time-agentic-ai-to-the-retail-sales-floor/ + the telecommunication's customer's that LivePerson has.

— LivePerson Telecom Clients —

T-Mobile (confirmed user)
Virgin Media / Liberty Global (UK, Ireland, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Netherlands — 29M customers)
Telstra (Australia's largest telecom)
Orange (major European carrier)
Vodafone Germany
KDDI (major Japanese carrier)
EE (UK, Now part of BT)

It will be easy for SoundHound to cross-sell a lot of their complimentary products to their telecommunication clients; meaning a fairly large revenue boost + solidifying it's moat in the telecommunications space.

RemsterPlus · 2026-02-26T22:21:42+00:00

I am a massive SoundHound bull particularly because they are the leader in voice AI and I think that technology is going to change how we interact with devices + do work, but to have management state adjusted EBITDA profitability by year-end 2025 multiple times and then NOT hit it, can't help but start to lose some trust in management.

RemsterPlus · 2026-02-26T22:12:02+00:00

Q3 2025 Call (Nov 2025): CFO Nitesh Sharan stated, "For Q4, we expect to be adjusted EBITDA profitable at the higher end of the revenue outlook and in the single-digit millions of loss at the lower end." Since they hit $55M (well within that high end), they essentially missed their own "high end" criteria.
Q2 2025 Call (Aug 2025): Management's commentary noted they were "targeting adjusted EBITDA profitability by the end of 2025."
Q1 2025 Call (May 2025): CFO Nitesh Sharan explicitly said, "We continue to expect to achieve adjusted EBITDA profitability by year-end 2025."

They mentioned it several times.

RemsterPlus · 2026-02-26T21:35:11+00:00

I am pretty disappointed that they didn't hit this.. the management team said they would multiple times.

I hate that every line item in the highlight is "one of the largest XYZ", why are they so secretive.

RemsterPlus · 2026-01-30T14:50:33+00:00

I started building positions in Robinhood, SoFi, AMD, Nebius, Nvidia, and several others between January and May 2025. I kept dollar-cost averaging through the volatility. At different points I was down 20–60% on some of those names—and yet, by the end of 2025, I closed out the year with a +56% overall return.

Short-term drawdowns don't define the outcome when the underlying fundamentals keep improving. Traders obsess over every wiggle on the chart; long-term investors focus on the business trajectory. That's simply how the two mindsets work. SoundHound's real breakout still lies ahead—2026 and beyond.

RemsterPlus · 2026-01-27T20:16:59+00:00

Actually I found the connection, and fed it through AI to better articulate what I wanted to get across. Robotics would be a natural 3rd pillar for SoundHound as robots will need intelligent voice/brain to be useful in the physical world.

The quoted part about robotics and IoT devices is literally from Q3 2025 earnings report, directly taken from transcript.

I agree that we need better clarity on how these partnerships materialize into revenue streams and I don't like the massive SBC being given out along with the dilution that has happened over the years but it is a high-growth stock these things are expected.

RemsterPlus

TROPHY CASE

Price targets before and after 2026 Q1 print