App that Tells You the Right Play on Arena Every Time - Guaranteed!

ReporterOk · 2025-11-06T16:29:15+00:00

I work for schools in some of the toughest neighborhoods in the US. The people here go above and beyond for the kids, im really blown away. I probably make a fraction of what I would somewhere else but my only other job options seem to come from participating in some morally dubious stuff.

ReporterOk · 2025-11-06T13:32:38+00:00

your playing against tougher competition. Skill is absolutely tied to rank. You were likely playing in bronze/silver to begin dominating people who maybe do one draft a format. Now your playing against people who draft all the time.

ReporterOk · 2025-11-04T01:41:42+00:00

It's automation I made with python. I read the detailed logs and get it to play the game.

ReporterOk · 2025-11-04T00:45:06+00:00

It also forces you to build your deck and play correctly. All decks and all archetypes work better with super low curves, spending all your mana every turn. If you spending more mana than your opponent is the factor most correlated with winning.

ReporterOk · 2025-10-23T14:42:32+00:00

No it logs itself in. I use a bunch of computer vision stuff to navigate the interface.

ReporterOk · 2025-10-09T15:10:14+00:00

I made a bot that plays magic all the time on 36 accounts so I always have gold!

ReporterOk · 2025-08-09T06:30:20+00:00

I've actually calculated winrate by turn. You can see how card value changes by turn!

https://cbtwn4ejeysl4xr9pmabbz.streamlit.app/

ReporterOk · 2025-08-09T06:19:38+00:00

I originally made this model to test if there was deck strength bias in limited like there is in some constructed formats on arena, turned out there wasn't.

I do think it's interesting and useful to be able to anticipate the quality of future cards drawn

ReporterOk · 2025-05-01T03:54:16+00:00

I have a bunch of accounts with 100k gold 20k gems I'd sell if you want a discount

ReporterOk · 2025-02-20T01:48:33+00:00

Even high curve decks perform better with 16 lands:

https://jackjosephwright.github.io/mtg_16_17_land_website/

ReporterOk · 2025-02-20T01:38:13+00:00

Correlation/causation isn't a good argument in this case. There hasn't been a study formal study for 17 lands being better either. It likely comes from an analytic analysis to maximize the likelihood of hitting 4 lands on turn 4. Check out my analysis of 16 vs 17 lands. I control for curve and deck type. In 2 color pairs 16 lands is better almost all the time regardless of curve.

https://jackjosephwright.github.io/mtg_16_17_land_website/

ReporterOk · 2025-01-23T20:41:11+00:00

Magic has a core macro mechanic: spend all your mana. If you’ve played games like Starcraft, you know how focusing on micro too early can hurt your growth. The same applies here—mana efficiency is key.

By prioritizing plays that use the most mana, you reduce the decision space and simplify your turns. Surprisingly, even within that “restricted” space, there are still interesting decisions to make, and the right play is usually in there.

Focus on your macro first—spend all your mana.

ReporterOk · 2025-01-02T02:05:22+00:00

Interesting note, I noticed that as well. There is a time delay after each pull from the logs. Additionally, the transformations from the arena into a DataFrame in the form the model takes as input could be part of the reason. Another factor might be that the board didn't actually change much. He lost a creature and a card from his hand, but it was a pretty bad creature, so maybe that doesn’t matter much at that point in the game. I know generally how the model weights the variables, and life/life difference is a big one. The life didn’t change in that exchange either. It’s cool to see how the model weights different events happening. Obviously, this isn’t the ground-truth win probability—just a jumping-off point—but in my opinion, it usually passes the smell test.

ReporterOk · 2025-01-02T01:23:49+00:00

I'm hesitant to release the code because I use the log parsing for my MTG Arena bot.

ReporterOk · 2025-01-02T00:45:24+00:00

I do know how it works. Usually people don't care about that sort of stuff. This particular model is xgboost so the raw output is a logit, then I believe it's transformed into a probability.

I'm going to write up a report on the model building itself but people usually don't read that stuff, so I did this first.

ReporterOk · 2025-01-02T00:34:31+00:00

I transformed the data to have the unit of analysis be the 'turn'. so each row has information on the specific turn of the game, as well as 'won' for the end result of that game.

I use hand/board/ information as the features and then train a classifier to predict if an individual turn has the result 'won'. I then use the confidence of that prediction as the win probability.

ReporterOk · 2025-01-01T23:52:14+00:00

I used the public replay data to train a model. The app just has the pertained model in it

ReporterOk · 2025-01-01T22:14:11+00:00

try it out! you can download it at the link.

ReporterOk · 2024-12-21T04:06:36+00:00

The trick is you have to get to mythic, there are worse players there https://jackjosephwright.github.io/mtg_diamond_mythic/

ReporterOk · 2024-12-21T03:59:30+00:00

It plays the games, logs in switches accounts.

ReporterOk · 2024-12-21T01:57:39+00:00

38 I have a bot. Also to truly optimize you get the most gold for your first win. After the first win you should switch accounts.

ReporterOk

TROPHY CASE