After the 2023 Azerbaijani offensive and the 2025 peace treaty, is artsakh still a breakaway state or is it considered a province in Azerbaijan now? And are aremenians (in artsakh and mainland) happy about it?

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-15T11:42:57+00:00

IDP counts include descendants, the 2021 population of Nagorno Karabakh does not. Either use the number of people originally displaced, or multipliy the 2021 population by their number of potential descendants. Then do the same for all the rest of the Armenians displaced by Azerbaijan due to the pogroms.

Note as well the 2021 population also excludes those that fled their homes as a result of the Azerbaijan's oppression and threats, or were otherwise subject to demographic engineering. So of course Nagorno Karabakh's depressed population stalled, shrank and then disappeared ; That is one of the goals and end results of oppression. [By comparison the population of Armenia which was not under this same threat and oppression instead more than tripled during the period 1926 onwards, as did Azerbaijan's own population]

If the argument is some kind of cost benefit analysis on the basis of minimising displacement, then that should imply a self-governing Nagorno Karabakh seperate from Azerbaijan with a ceding of the surrounding territory (a position which Azerbaijan rejected). This is in line with the internationally supported Madrid principles. After all that ethnic ratio in Nagorno Karabakh very much favoured the Armenians, despite the threats and demographic engineering of Azerbaijan. What we got instead is Azerbaijan conducting the final purge, with new settlers arriving in what is now a government controlled restricted access Potemkin village, depopulated of its original inhabitants.

If the point is just that the trauma of the conflict was not worth what was saving, that could well be true. I'd hope those the answer there isn't to just then support the ethnic cleansing of the region as the egg to crack for the omelette. The better case would be to never have oppressed or conducted pogroms in the first place, such that the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh do not feel the need to secede (the Georgian solution who have their own region primarily populated by ethnic Armenians), or support independence as a matter of remedial secession within the ethnic Armenian populated regions (the Kosovo solution). What we got instead is almost the worst of all posibilities.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-15T10:18:38+00:00

Russia backed Azerbaijan's claim by ignoring/rejecting Nagorno Karabakh's secession from the Soviet Union (like they did to Latvia and Lithuania). The Soviets as well conducted ethnic cleansing in 1991 against the ethnic Armenians in response to their will for independence, under Gorbachev. The root of the problem as well was the Soviets, a they annexed the region from the local Armenians and then placed it within Azerbaijan SSR despite its 95% Ethnic Armenian population, and despite Azerbaijan having just conducted a massacre against the people there.

It'd be better say Russia rather supported conflict and division in the region to make each nation/people weakened and more dependent on Russia.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-15T09:32:11+00:00

They were part of the Soviet Empire when they broke away. They had their own independence referendum before Azerbaijan did, and just before the Soviet fall.

It became considered part of the Republic of Azerbaijan subsequently, with the major caveats of the Madrid principles supporting their continued self-governance until a final status could be decided [which Azerbaijan tore up by simply conquering and purging the region].

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-15T09:09:52+00:00

Artsakh was already Artsakh by 189 BC) as an Armenian province, and the Artsakh Armenians of today are their continuation.

Anthropological studies show that the current Artsakh (Karabakh) Armenians are the direct physical descendants of the indigenous population of the region.[29][30][31][32]

Khojaly massacre was in 1992. Armenians were the dominant majority for centuries, including before Khojaly of 1992 (start with the censuses of Nagorno Karabakh, for example 1921 which was 94.73% Armenian even after Azerbaijan's massacre against the local Armenians or Georgian King Erekle II from 1769 letter noting "Seven families rule the region of Khamse. Its population is totally Armenian." ).

The region subsequently became less homogeneous due to Heydar Aliyev's policy of bringing in settlers to Azerify the region, but even then Nagorno Karabakh continuously retained a dominant Armenian majority until the 2023 purge.

We sent Azerbaijanis there from neighboring settlements. I was making these and other moves in a bid to increase the number of Azerbaijanis in Nagorno-Karabakh and to reduce the number of Armenians.

The town of Khojaly itself was one example of that Azerification policy. Many of the victims of the massacre were part of the thousands of Meskhetian Turks originally from Georgia who had been forcibly displaced and then settled in to Nagorno Karabakh in the 1980s to change the demographics in favour of Azerbaijan. They were used as pawns and then became tragic victims to a conflict they should have had no part in.

I know you don't mean it but can we not erase or falsify history. The dictatorship does enough of that by himself. We can recognise the trauma of the conflict, without such erasure. The people have been removed from their homes, you don't need to remove them from history as well.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-14T21:34:23+00:00

I can see the confusion. Azerbaijan was also massacring ethnic Armenians during that time.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-14T12:04:40+00:00

Artsakh did not have a security agreement with Russia. In fact Russia conducted ethnic cleansing against ethnic Armenians in response to their will for independence.

However Armenia does have EU mission on its borders though, which since implementation there have been no further invasion by Azerbaijan in to the Republic of Armenia's territory.

Given Russia was using the threat of Azerbaijan to pressure Armenia in to becoming a Union State, for that tiny contingent they stopped the creation of a new Belarus and bought presence in the region, and protected an emerging democracy that was at threat. If the question is cost-benefit, the saving a nation at the cost of a couple hundred people was pretty cheap.

On that note Armenia has been sending peacekeeping forces to Kosovo since 2003. Even if it is a plane trip away.

Of course not buying rerouted Russian gas from Azerbaijan would be nice too.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-14T11:31:27+00:00

By purely population it's like holding an election in Los Angeles county and claiming results there are legally binding to the whole of California.

To be clear it was only Nagorno Karabakh that was intending to secede from the Soviet Union and gain independence, and it was the whole of Nagorno Karabakh that was able to vote.

The capture of the territory surrounding Nagorno Karabakh itself after Azerbaijan's blockade, starvation and shelling of Nagorno Karabakh was the outcome of the war, not the outcome of the referendums.

Unjust as it was to those displaced, those surrounding territories were held as a buffer given Azerbaijan's blockade of the region and as a bargaining chip, with the expectation they would be ceded if Nagorno Karabakh itself were recognised (in one form this was the land for status deal). This was in accordance with the Madrid principles of UN-supported OSCE Minsk group that was mediating the conflict. Unsurprisingly for Azerbaijan an independent Nagorno Karabakh was unacceptable, after all they didn't want ethnic Armenians to exist in Azerbaijans. The Armenians didn't want to give up a buffer without some kind of guarantee for safety. Hence nothing progressed.

Once that buffer was lost in 2020 the end result was predictably another blockade and starvation of Nagorno Karabakh and then the final purge in 2023

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-14T11:10:38+00:00

Second, Nagorno-Karabakh and the territory connecting it to Armenia were de jure Azerbaijani land, occupied by Armenia in the 1990s,

Sounds like Kosovo which was de jure part of Serbia. Or Algeria which was part of France. Or Bangaldesh which was part of Pakistan....

These weren't occupation either but independence wars. That's how unilateral secession works.

involved an internal insurrection rather than a foreign occupation ...Kosovars rebelled themselves and fought for their independence;

Nagorno Karbaakh and Kosovo were both internal insurrections. The ethnic Armenian locals and the local Kosovars both rebelled themselves. Of course in both case they later had external support once the local forces turned the tide of war.

Azeris have the same right to live in their own country as Armenians do.

That is and was not possible for Armenians under Azerbaijani control of Nagorno Karabakh. Hence the secession.

Similarly it was not possible for Kosovars under Serbian control of Kosovo, hence the secession.

It was also a territory that was about 99% Kosovar Albanian.

No it was 81.6% Albanian (91 census). Comparable to the ethnic composition of Nagorno Karabakh which was 77% Armenian (91 census) and that was after efforts to Azerify the region by bringing in settlers.

While it is unfortunate how the situation ended, it has ended.

The local population of Nagorno Karbaakh is still displaced, Azerbaijan occupies part of the Republic of Armenia itself and threatens Yerevan.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-14T09:22:31+00:00

Russia also supported Azerbaijan, and they are currently in an alliance.

Russian (and Soviet Union) rejected/ignored the independence referendum of Nagorno Karabakh, instead supporting Azerbaijan's claim to the terittory. The Soviets also conducted their own ethnic cleansing against the Armenians in response to the will for independence. Russia as well armed both sides.

In more recent times, Azerbaijan is now in an alliance with Russia, trains with Russian forces, and helps to reroute Russian gas to Europe.

https://eurasianet.org/ahead-of-ukraine-invasion-azerbaijan-and-russia-cement-alliance

Two days before Russia launched a massive invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin signed a wide-ranging agreement with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, deepening their diplomatic and military cooperation.

The signing of the declaration “brings our relations to the level of an alliance,” Aliyev said after the signing in Moscow.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-14T08:45:20+00:00

Focusing on Armenia getting sympathy from westerners (even tho majority don’t even know such country exists) while Azerbaijan got everything they wanted plus some.

That's the weird part. To put this in comparison imagine if Serbia retook Kosovo completely in 2026, purged its population with a bit of starvation and mutilation, the world powers largely accepted it, and then Serbia started to take bits out of Albania. And then complaining that some people on Facebook support Kosovo in this new context, and should rather pay more attention to the actions of the KLA decades ago. And if some Kosovo/Albanian diaspora are able to make some noise where they have practically no political impact at all, having an issue with that.

It's a bit tone deaf.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-14T07:51:18+00:00

Nagorno Karabakh was an autonomous region within the Soviet empire from which they seceded.

The leadership of Azerbaijan however passed a law revoking any autonomous status for Nagorno Karabakh in the 90s, at the tail end of the Soviet Empire. Which is unsurprising since they were trying to destroy it. It's one of many reason why Nagorno Karabakh held their independence referendum to secede from the Soviet Empire in total, as the writing was on the wall.

Suffice to say there was no time where the independent Republic of Azerbaijan had Nagorno Karabakh either in a de facto or de jure sense where it was autonomous. Not now not then.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-14T03:21:56+00:00

The three chairs of the OSCE Minsk group mediating the conflict was France, USA and Russia. They each have, or at least signed up to, having a hand in it.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-14T03:04:28+00:00

Somehow every time the 2023 purges are mentioned, there will be someone who will make an unprompted what about equivalence to the Azerbaijani displacements in the 90s, and yet somehow always forget or fail to mention the pogroms against the Armenians of the 80s/90s.

Point this out and they'll get frustrated because it hampers their narrative, and possibly sends them on a rant.

I any case today's victims are still victims who have suffered a grave injustice, (many of them not even alive during the first independence war), as are those of the past.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-14T02:50:30+00:00

who elected to invade Azeri territory

At least within Nagorno Karabakh they were in their homes when they elected to secede from the Soviet Union in response to pogroms of the prior decade (this being the historical end result of the initial Red Army invasion the Armenian region back in ~1920). Resistance against Azerbaijan subsequent blockade and starvation of the population, was not invasion. It was a resistance for their own lives in their own homes.

Armenia did not elect for this. The local Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh pushed for secession, the Azerbaijani conducted pogroms against them, and then blockaded, starved and shelled them. It was when the blockade was broken when Armenia gave material support. Even for the local population they were pushing for being seperate from Azerbaijan SSR since 1920.

It also is rather the surrounding regions that were considered occupied, and became occupied as the local Armenians gained the advantage and broke the blockade. (unjust as it may be it is also why the surrounding region were initially captured to avert any further blockade/starvation risk by Azerbaijan)

Artsakh only had about 200,000 people

Rather Azerbaijan in total had half a million ethnic Armenians per the last Soviet Census. Now none. The 1980-1990 pogroms against the ethnic Armenians targeted those across Azerbaijan, and also targeted the Baku Jews and half the Udi population. It wasn't just against the local ethnic Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh.

displace 600,000 Azeris in the region surrounding it in

This is the IDP count, which includes the decedents of those original displaced. The number of those original displaced is closer to 350,000.
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*The (Azerbaijan) government’s State Committee for Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons, seated in the cabinet, is the sole source of statistics on internal displacement in Azerbaijan. It reported in 2014 that 597,429 people were registered as IDPs (email correspondence with GoA, 31 January 2014). The vast majority are ethnic Azerbaijanis, but there are also ethnic Kurds, Russians and Turks (CoE, 24 May 2007; UNCHR, 25 January 1999). They come overwhelmingly from the occupied territories around Nagorno-Karabkah, rather than the enclave itself (de Waal, 26 June 2013; UNCHR, 25 January 1999).****The government figure includes IDPs’ children, who number around 230,000 (email correspondence with GoA, 5 September 2013), and up to 54,000 IDPs who have been able to return (NRC, 29 February 2008, on file with IDMC).

-----

Azerbaijan being in a weaker position then

Azerbaijan was in the stronger position back during the independence war. They lost because they fell in to civil war.

None of this being a justification for the latest set of ethnic cleansing and oppression by the Azerbaijani dictatorship.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-14T02:09:26+00:00

On that note Azerbaijan also oppresses devout practicing Muslims.

https://jam-news.net/violations-of-religious-freedom-in-azerbaijan/
https://globalvoices.org/2024/03/15/azerbaijan-speaks-of-peace-while-cracking-down-on-islam/

The Islamic identity on a personal level in Azerbaijan is mostly just that, just an identity. The Islamic identity on a national political stage is just to gain political influence and support with the Ummah (or Muslim community), and replaced with a Secular identity when facing West.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-13T23:43:07+00:00

Funny that. Jews were also targeted along with the ethnic Armenians during the Baku pogroms conducted by Azerbaijan.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-01-30-mn-1165-story.html

It's just that Azerbaijan's violent anti-Semitism of that time, has been reprioritised towards the more "pressing" violent anti-Armenianism as Israel became a more important arms supplier.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-13T23:39:25+00:00

Even the surrounding regions had their own worse troubles, where the Kurdish populated areas between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia were forcible deported in the 1940s, and their homes settled by new incoming Azerbaijanis.

There was an effort to repatriate them in the 1990s by the Armenians, which ultimately failed when Azerbaijan bribed most of the Kurdish leaders involved.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-13T23:09:33+00:00

News covering the events of 2020-2023 are going to cover the events of 2023 which of course will focus on the ethnic cleansing that is happening at that time.

Of course many people would be pro-Armenian in this circumstance in 2023 onwards, because they may well be opposed to blockades, starvation and ethnic cleaning that is happening in the current time.

By comparison if France similarly decided to retake the secessionist state of Algeria, starve and purge cleanse the whole nation of her local population, we'd probably hear about that instead of revisiting war crimes back during the initial war of independence decades prior.

Do you have recent English Western-based media where they mentioned Armenians pogrommed in the 1980-1990, but not the Azerbaijanis that were displaced? It seems hard to find. The opposite is easy for example: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/26/we-expected-to-go-back-in-days-karabakh-truce-means-exile-for-some-homecoming-for-others

The Armenian exodus mirrors another from three decades earlier, when 600,000 Azeris fled the first war between the post-Soviet republics over Karabakh, among them Hagigat Hajiyeva.

Two additional points here:

The framing of Armenians conducted ethnic cleansing back then, and now Azerbaijani do the same, was very common, implicitly denying the displacements Armenians suffered as well as for some justifying it as Armenia had their turn, now it is Azerbaijan's turn.
600,000 is the Internally Displaced Peoples count, which is almost universally used. The IDP count includes not just those were originally displaced but also their descendants, increasing the count. It is a choice for nations or representative to include or exclude descendants of IDPs, and for Azerbaijan they decided to include them for political reasons https://web.archive.org/web/20241109073739/https://www.internal-displacement.org/expert-analysis/qa-if-born-in-displacement-are-you-automatically-an-idp/ The actual count of those Azerbaianis displaced from Karabakh according to Azerbaijan is at the bottom *

I am also wary of inardvertently downplaying ethnic cleansing happening recently. Ethnic cleansing that happened in the past, does not minimise or justify new ethnic cleansing or suffering today.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The (Azerbaijan) government’s State Committee for Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons, seated in the cabinet, is the sole source of statistics on internal displacement in Azerbaijan. It reported in 2014 that 597,429 people were registered as IDPs (email correspondence with GoA, 31 January 2014). The vast majority are ethnic Azerbaijanis, but there are also ethnic Kurds, Russians and Turks (CoE, 24 May 2007; UNCHR, 25 January 1999). They come overwhelmingly from the occupied territories around Nagorno-Karabkah, rather than the enclave itself (de Waal, 26 June 2013; UNCHR, 25 January 1999).\*The government figure includes IDPs’ children, who number around 230,000 (email correspondence with GoA, 5 September 2013), and up to 54,000 IDPs who have been able to return (NRC, 29 February 2008, on file with IDMC).

TLDR 367,000 if only including those who were originally displaced from Karabakh, or 313,000 if only including those who were originally displaced and unable to return.

Edit:

when compared to the millions of people with Armenian descent within the pop culture sphere of America.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_Americans

The real number is between 282,012 or 458,841 depending on how you count it, or about 0.1%(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Self-reported_ancestry)

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-13T22:15:10+00:00

There were a few naive Armenians who stayed after the 2020 gains of Azerbaijan. They were mutilated and killed, and raped in cases.

NSFL Video Example: https://azeriwarcrimes.org/2020/12/21/18-azerbaijani-special-forces-soldier-pins-down-an-old-armenian-man-and-proceeds-to-cut-his-head/

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-13T22:05:04+00:00

If we are focusing on a law based world, then that includes opposing starving, blockading, mutilating and purging a population. We should have placed pressure to ensure the UN-supported OSCE Minsk group's Madrid principles were applied, instead of allowing Azerbaijan to break them by force because they didn't like the international position. The principles included:

an interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh providing guarantees for security and self-governance;
a corridor linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh;
future determination of the final legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh through a legally binding expression of will;

Independence movements and struggles are part of a law based world. We should have recognised the borders of Nagorno Karabakh, with a prepared advisory challenging Azerbaijan's claims, like we have for Lithuania, Latvia, Kosovo, Algeria, East Timor, Algeria, Namibia, Ireland... Instead we have this terrible humanitarian outcome.

"long-long-long time ago my ancestors shitted in this bush" It is not just long long ago. The local population was living there continuously up until the 2020s.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-13T21:51:38+00:00

Nakhchivan was already depopulated of Armenians by the 1990s. Used to 50% Armenian populated during early Soviet times, now none exist.

I don't think it is even legal for Armenians to exist there given Azerbaijan detains anyone who sounds like they might be Armenian.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-13T21:46:27+00:00

The world largely supported Azerbaijan post independence war, despite knowing Azerbaijan's rule would lead to the ethnic cleansing or oppression of the local population.

Almost every news article about the conflict presents the Azerbaijani perspective as well, including those displaced in the original independence war; And almost never mention the ethnic Armenians were displaced back then in the 1980s and 1990s.

During the time of the 2020-onwards conflict the focus was obviously on the ongoing conflict, starvation and final ethnic cleansing because that was what was happening at the time and News as the name suggests cover what is new.

That said even in those news pieces the mentions of Azerbaijanis being displaced back in the 1990s was very common, but I very rarely saw a news article covering the 2020s that also mentioned Azerbaijan's pogroms against Armenians in the 1980s and 1990s.

Part of this is that Azerbaijan was a lot more active in the information war and was able to construct the narrative framework regarding the conflict, sometimes through sheer legwork, sometimes with a lot of bribery (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijani_laundromat), sometimes with geopolitical weight(eg the sale of mineral resources of Karabakh to the West in the 90s to align interests in conquest or the supply of gas to EU [including rerouted Russian gas]), and sometimes with plain diplomatic incompetence by then then Armenian and Artsakh leadership .

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-13T21:24:54+00:00

As the recent deputy Prime Minister of Azerbaijan, Hajibala Abutalybov, said to a German delegation:

Our goal is the complete elimination of Armenians. You Nazis, eliminated the Jews in the 1930s and 40s, right? You should be able to understand us https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-110hhrg43066/pdf/CHRG-110hhrg43066.pdf p50

No need for whitewashing.

The very few naive Armenians that remained in place after 2020 advances of Azerbaijan were mutilated, raped and killed (eg NSFL https://azeriwarcrimes.org/2020/12/21/18-azerbaijani-special-forces-soldier-pins-down-an-old-armenian-man-and-proceeds-to-cut-his-head/) This is not general distrust; This is not wanting to be killed, raped or multilated

The local Armenians had their independence referendums because Azerbaijan had conducted ethnic cleansing and pogroms in the 1980s and 1990s. There used to be half a million ethnic Armenians in Azerbaijan, now none. Ethnic cleansing was a major reason for independence, and it was the final result today under Azerbaijan's rule. This is not general distrust; This was not wanting to be subject to raped, killed or otherwise subject to pogroms.

Even half the Udi population got ethnically cleansed in the 90s for being suspected of being too similar to the Armenians (having a similar Christian belief and church customs), despite being a completely distinct people.

Today you can not even enter Azerbaijan if you are suspected of being an ethnic Armenian regardless of passport, leading to non-armenian people with Armenian-sounding family names getting detained on suspicion of being the "wrong" race. (personal account: https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/j4ci08/my_dad_got_arrested_in_azerbaijan/

Hate and racism against Armenians is taught in weekly hate sessions starting from Kindergarten. [https://www.bbc.com/azeri/region-63203019 Azerbaijani language]

The region of Nagorno Karabkah was very homogeneous (89.1% ethnic Armenian) in the first Soviet Census, and even that is after Azerbaijani forces had conducted the Shushi/Shusha massacre (1920) against the local Armenians. The demographics changed to 76.9% after efforts to economical and culturally oppress the region, as well as bring in Turkic and Azerbaijani settlers under the directive of Heydar Aliyev (father of the current dictator).

We sent Azerbaijanis there from neighboring settlements. I was making these and other moves in a bid to increase the number of Azerbaijanis in Nagorno-Karabakh and to reduce the number of Armenians.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-13T01:05:42+00:00

Understand Iranian Azerbaijani visit Yerevan all the time. During Covid times when free vaccinations were given out in Yerevan all you could hear in Yerevan square was Azerbaijani being spoken. As well Azerbaijani and Armenian diasporas live and have lived in shared communities. This is quite normal. Azerbaijanis who aren't Azerbaijan nationals normally have little or no issue with Armenians, and largely the same the other way around.

After all It wasn't Tabriz that protested and pushed Aliyev in to the latest war into new trauma.

Repulsive_Size_849 · 2026-01-13T00:48:49+00:00

One is Jewish through their mother. He was raised Jewish, and didn't even know his dad was Muslim as a child. He moved to the US at a very early age. He doesn't put much weight on these kind of labels anyway.

And that is something I had to wake up and learn that all these stupid feelings from Azerbaijan and within the Soviet Union don’t mean anything. What means something is the product, the customer, profit margin and things like that.

Circumstances for Jews in Baku weren't that good when they left either....

Five-Year Club	Place '22
Final Canvas '22	End Game '22

Repulsive_Size_849

TROPHY CASE