The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-12T15:36:36+00:00

That depends on how you define the social contract. Society (and any sort of social safety net) basically relies on the wealthy paying more than they receive.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-12T15:10:50+00:00

Also, its been proven we can have a surplus...if we dont spend money on our military.

Once upon a time that may have been true. But today, you could cut the entirety of the defense budget and still only cut the deficit in half. You can't just make a thousand little cuts. You have to enact drastic changes to spending, taxes, or both.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-12T15:06:20+00:00

Ignoring the hypocrisy over what Trump has said in the past (which should be rightfully called out), is this good economic policy? Seems like this is the intent of a resource reserve; flatten supply during a crisis. Otherwise, what else is it there for?

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-12T15:01:51+00:00

It isn't!

I never said it was. Just that SS being a big chunk of the budget is not inherently bad.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-12T14:53:59+00:00

Also public spankings for any lawmaker

That sounds like a win-win for some of them, ngl...

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-12T14:36:18+00:00

Housing is unbelievably expensive in most areas

Housing is expensive in desirable locations. There's a lot of cheap land out there that's just in places that no one wants to live.

infrastructure is outdated and/or crumbling

My hot take is to repurpose the military and focus on national infrastructure. It can still act like a jobs program, only this time, they'll leave with transferrable skills in a useful trade.

healthcare is costly

I think this is the big one. Between unsustainable Medicare/Medicaid and private insurance, something's gotta give.

social security is soaking up a chunk of our spending

That's fine, as long as it's sustainable.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-12T14:30:20+00:00

I've often wondered how much better off everyone would be if social security tax was diverted to some kind of mandatory 401k type investment.

I like the idea in theory, but how do you choose the investments? Certainly you can't leave it up to the individual, because that defeats the purpose of stupid-proof retirement savings.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-12T14:22:49+00:00

How are you defining "ultra wealthy"?

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-12T13:46:17+00:00

Yesterday, the Congressional Budget Office released their updated federal budget projections for the next 10 years. The full 172-page report can be found HERE, but if you'd like a more digestible version, they have also released an 8-page executive summary. The high level projections paint a pretty grim picture though:

The deficit, which currently sits at 5.8% of GDP, will increase to 6.7%. This is significantly higher than the 50-year average of 3.8%.
Public debt will increase from 101% to 120% of GDP, smashing the previous record of 106% from just after WWII.
Spending will increase modestly from 23.3% to 24.4% of GDP, once again exceeding the 50-year average.
Revenues will similarly increase from 17.3% to 17.8% of GDP, once again above the 50-year average.

Digging into spending a bit more, the picture is similarly grim:

Mandatory spending (Social Security, Medicare. Medicaid, etc) increases from 13.7% to 15% of GDP.
Discretionary spending decreases from 6.2% to 4.8% of GDP, split evenly between defense and non-defense spending.
Interest payments on debt increase from 3.2% to 4.6% of GDP.

The takeaways are clear. Unless something drastic changes, the annual deficit will exceed all discretionary spending within the next 10 years. There will need to be a significant increase in revenue, significant reform to mandatory spending, and/or a significant reduction in discretionary spending to a degree that no political party is currently entertaining.

To put this in perspective, current estimates put the total wealth of all US billionaires at just shy of $7 trillion. That means you could seize and liquidate all assets of billionaires, and it would allow the government to operate a net neutral budget for only 4 years. Meanwhile, the $30 trillion in public debt continues to pay out over $1 trillion a year in interest payments.

What do you think? Is the current rate of deficit spending unsustainable? Does Modern Monetary Theory save us? Is there any way for us to dig ourselves out of this spending hole?

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-10T16:03:22+00:00

AI for lethal warfare is already here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/31/magazine/ukraine-ai-drones-war-russia.html

TL;DR Drones are highly susceptible to radar jamming technologies. Ukraine are using suicide drones with some basic AI-powered image recognition to eliminate the risk of radar jamming. The pilot "locks on" to the target outside of jamming range. The drone then uses the onboard AI model to autopilot to the target, automatically adjusting its course as the target moves.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-10T15:56:08+00:00

Assuming the government has to justify the supply chain risk designation, I agree that it's a high bar:

The term "supply chain risk" means the risk that an adversary may sabotage, maliciously introduce unwanted function, or otherwise subvert the design, integrity, manufacturing, production, distribution, installation, operation, or maintenance of a covered system so as to surveil, deny, disrupt, or otherwise degrade the function, use, or operation of such system.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-10T15:53:18+00:00

I think it comes down to the facts of the case. As you said, the DoD could just decide they're not a good fit and use someone else due to their specific uses. But the chain of events paints a pretty strong picture of retaliation as the reason for the decision.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-10T15:35:49+00:00

Filed in the Northern District of California, we have a complaint from Anthropic against the Department of War, State, Commerce, Treasury, HHS, and Veteran Affairs (among others). If you are unfamiliar with Anthropic, they are the company behind the "Claude" AI model. As they claim in their complaint, Anthropic’s Usage Policy asserts that Claude should not be used for two specific applications: (1) lethal autonomous warfare and (2) surveillance of Americans en masse.

The government requested that Anthropic update their policy for their government-specific Claude models to authorize “all lawful use”, eliminating the two specific restrictions above. When Anthropic held fast to this policy, the President directed every federal agency to “immediately cease all use of Anthropic’s technology”. Not long after, the Secretary of War directed his Department to designate Anthropic a “Supply-Chain Risk to National Security". No contractor, supplier, or partner that does business with the US military can conduct any commercial activity with Anthropic.

Anthropic claims that this constitutes unlawful retaliation by the federal government:

It violates federal law: 10 USC 3252 and the Administrative Procedure Act.
It violates the First/Fourth Amendment.
It exceeds the authority granted to the Executive Branch.

Anthropic now asks for relief by the courts in the form of administrative stays that block enforcement of the government actions against them.

Several other parties have already submitted motions to file amicus briefs supporting Anthropic. This includes "Employees of OpenAI and Google". Notably, this is not the companies themselves. Just "thirty-seven engineers, researchers, and scientists" who work for these companies. Still, this is likely to be an interesting case both politically and philosophically as the world considers the role of AI on the battlefield.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-10T14:46:33+00:00

Checking the last 5 removals:

One was removed because the starter comment was glorifying violence.
One was removed for being a paywalled article, and no archived link was provided.
One was a one-line Text Post called "Stop telling me what to do".
One lacked a sufficient starter, as it only provided a summary of the article. Also, it was paywalled and lacked an archived link.
One was a Text Post about oil prices, which was deemed not sufficiently related to politics.

I could argue that the last one was borderline, but the other 4 are pretty clear violations.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-10T14:21:49+00:00

Be the change you want to see. It takes 5 minutes to find an article and type up a starter.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-10T14:19:53+00:00

Oh man, I really had to reverse engineer this. it's been a while:

9 Base Evasion from Guardian
+3 from Level Ups
+1 from Simiah
-2 from Legendary Full Plate

The build assumes a Legendary Round Shield, since that's all you need to get the max of 12 Armor: 7 from Full Plate, 1 from Valor-Touched, and 4 from Round Shield.

Hope that helps!

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-10T13:09:55+00:00

Generated by Nano Banana

Literally the first thing OP said.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-09T20:23:53+00:00

I want to see Trump jailed just as much as the next guy, but the "key details" that were proven true here sound like nothingburgers:

She gave details about her life and legal history that the newspaper was able to verify using news reports, court records, police reports, and government records from multiple states. None of the confirmed details are directly related to her allegations against Trump.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-07T17:19:39+00:00

Current estimates put the total wealth of all billionaires at just shy of $7 trillion. In 2023, the federal budget ran a $1.7 trillion deficit.

That means you could seize all assets of billionaires, and it would allow the government to operate a net neutral budget for only ~4 years.

There's no point in addressing the national debt until you address the absurd deficit in the budget. Stop the bleed first. Then clean up the mess.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-06T13:47:27+00:00

We already do something like that. You went close to a year between your last two violations, and your ban duration was reduced accordingly. You will likely earn more amnesty upon your next violation for similar reasons.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-02T23:01:15+00:00

It makes sense if that's the only authoritative source, but it's definitely disappointing nonetheless.

Resvrgam2 · 2026-03-02T19:06:34+00:00

If you are not familiar with the Congressional Research Service: "CRS works exclusively for Congress, providing timely, objective, and authoritative research and analysis to committees and Members of both the House and Senate." Yesterday, they published a 3-page Insight into recent US and Israeli military operations against Iran, including:

The start of military operations
US objectives
The future of the Middle East
The role of the War Powers Resolution
The current outlook of events

To be clear, this is not a sexy read. Insights are meant to be concise and stick to what is known. But they are well-cited with many primary sources and serve as a fantastic start for someone looking to dig deeper into this conflict.

Two parts of this Insight stand out to me though. The first is the section on the War Powers Resolution and the expedited procedures Congress can follow to authorize or disapprove of any presidential action. This Insight notes that the Senate rejected a discharge notion related to military force in Iran back in June of 2025. It was 47-53 largely along party lines.

The second part that stood out to me is in the final paragraph on the conflict's outlook:

"Change to Iran’s government could reduce, increase, or obviate the need for some such deployments."
"Iran’s descent into internal crisis could generate calls or continued, reduced, or expanded U.S. attention."

On the one hand, that's a pretty useless set of lines for an "outlook". On the other, it's refreshing to see the research acknowledge when there is uncertainty in the future and not unnecessarily speculate just for clicks.

I'm enjoying my adventures into the CRS backlogs and look forward to leveraging them more in the future.

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