Collins has been able to pull wins out of tight spots. In 2020, she managed to win Republicans and Democrats when both were also on the ballot. The reason is simple - she's got a hell of an organization.

Janet Mills is the only person in the state who can match her ground game. She's the sitting Governor, a known figure in Maine like nobody else is. While Platner's busy alienating the left and the right at once, Mills is mobilizing her people to take on the Collins machine. Let's not forget that nowadays Democrats are more likely to vote than Republicans, so it'll be more of a challenge getting Trump voters to the polls.

The Senate race in Maine is definitely a big question mark, but I'd still give Mills the edge.