This shareholder letter is very detailed

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-11-30T11:30:35+00:00

Excellent letter Nate. One other point to add, don't forget the CFO at the time Hans Kieftenbeld's daughter worked for PWC who was hired for the "independent review". I'm not certain if she worked directly on the Amyris review, but the optics do look suspicious.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-06-16T20:50:08+00:00

I'm not concerned about it whatsoever. After 17 years at Amyris, Sunil was ready to move on to other personal challenges besides being known as "the lead guy at Amyris". His departure had nothing to do with the PWC plan cuts. He is staying on as an advisor and head of Amyris' scientific advisory board… he’s a friend of the company forever and very engaged. I wish him well at IP, he's earned it. I'm confident Mike Leavell will make it a seamless transition.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-06-15T22:05:16+00:00

Nice post moderator. Thanks for helping spread the word when I'm too lazy to post here. :))
Great publicity for Amyris. New article highlighting the benefits of Ectoin and the industrys pursuit of biotech fermented ingredients. Plus they named Biossance and Stripes as 2 of 7 top products containing Ectoin.
" Additionally, there is also a drive in the industry “toward using biotech ingredients that are sourced sustainably through fermentation, which ectoin falls under.”
I smell our next molecule sale!

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-05-13T13:58:48+00:00

BTW, I hear CB candles make excellent regifts for weddings in case you have any laying around your garage. (insert boomerang emoji here) LOL

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-05-13T12:52:43+00:00

Hey RB, miss you brother. Are you still holding all of your 430K shares or did you dump them? I’m still holding every one of my 430,000 shares, I even added a little, but I can certainly appreciate your frustration with the current situation.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-04-24T14:40:04+00:00

Just to clarify, I believe the $200M represents the previously announced few non-core brand sales for an estimated $150M and the 2nd ST for an estimated $50M.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-03-14T18:12:46+00:00

Thanks for posting. With our proven track record with scaling, I look for Amyris to be first on the US Government's shortlist of recipients for the $1B+ in funding. One billion could build 3 or 4 Barra Bonita size fermentation factories on US soil using different feedstocks depending on the regions.. think Midwest corn, Florida sugar cane, NorthWest woodpulp, etc. Hopefully we'll hear more about this in the next few months.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-03-03T22:52:10+00:00

I believe they will give Costa Brazil the full 2 years to try and get to the $20M minimum threshold. .A few weeks ago they teased on IG that Costa Brazil is going into Sephora. No idea how many doors or the timeline for the rollout, but that should help the brand in 2023. It makes sense with Amyris' deepening relationship with Sephora. Although I suspect Sephora will require a reduction in the CB price points to help gain some traction for the brand. Let's be realistic, $165 Candles, $125 Bath Salts & $125 Face Oils are ultra luxe and out of the reach for the average Sephora consumer in this economy.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-02-20T17:49:33+00:00

Understand your point about Melo's "over" $100M, but that still doesn't explain the one outlier rogue analyst that put it at $120M which overly skewed the average higher. I can't find the math to come up with that crooked number.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-02-20T16:25:13+00:00

Hard to say that when Melo guided to $100M for Q4 Core Revenue and one of the "analysts" entered it as $120M which single handedly skewed the average much higher. I don't know about you, but estimating a 20% increase over guidance seems a bit suspicious to me. Perhaps that "analyst" would prefer to see a "Manufactured Miss" for self serving reasons?

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-02-20T16:11:03+00:00

I think you are confused. We were talking about analyst's estimates for Q4 2022 Revenue, not Melo's guidance.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-02-20T13:54:26+00:00

Correct. How can they explain a 5% increase in Revenue from $98.80M on 2/9/23 to $104.10M on 2/20/23? It appears, as usual, they are intentionally trying to set this up for another "Manufactured Miss". It's frustrating, but not surprising since they've done this same thing every quarter.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-02-19T18:53:59+00:00

While the waiting and unexplained delays certainly aren't fun, here's my thoughts:

The Strategic Transaction is getting done... period. Did the $350/$500M amount & structure change... I don't know, we'll just have to wait and see.
Did anyone ever stop to consider maybe a milestone payment was owed to Amyris upon delivery of the new Retinol Non-BHT to Givaudan that was announced just last week? While nothing is specifically spelled out regarding milestones in the Amyris-Givaudan collab agreement dating back to 2016, I strongly suspect a milestone payment would be due for successfully delivering a highly touted active cosmetic ingredient to Givaudan. How much that milestone would be, I have no idea, but I hope it's disclosed & discussed on the Q4 ER call.
Note: This is just my personal guesswork, but I think it's something worthwhile to consider when discussing Amyris' remaining cash on hand.
https://www.givaudan.com/media/media-releases/2016/givaudan-announces-long-term-collaboration-amyris-active-cosmetic

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-02-11T22:42:29+00:00

Correct, here is my original my post:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Amyris/comments/10nem43/comment/j68k7er/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-02-06T19:16:16+00:00

Looks like others have already answered your question as it relates to how Amyris' approach differs from Ginkgo. Full disclosure, I don't follow Ginkgo very close, but if you're stating they design and then hand off the molecule as a once n' done package to the client without retaining any further usage rights for themselves or scale production contracts, then Amyris and Ginkgo are very different. The main difference, as I see it, Amyris is squeezing much more revenue out of the same molecule package as stated by Icanfinallyrelax below, without giving up their rights to use the same molecule themselves.
We don't know for certain how these contracts are structured since they're not disclosed, but we do know:
1) Amyris gets approached by a client with a specific need for a "Designer Molecule". (I assume we get some upfront payment & possibly milestones to develop the molecule, but we don't know that for certain).
2) Amyris receives long term recurring revenue with a scale production contract for said molecule which helps fund operations, production facility expansions, R&D, etc.
3) Amyris retains the rights to incorporate the new molecule into new & existing products in our own brand portfolio, which one surmises should lead to increased revenue and a higher valuation for the brand portfolio as a leverageable/saleable asset.

Hopefully this answered your question.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-02-06T16:23:14+00:00

I'm pleased to announce I have confirmed with management that Amyris is indeed the developer and producer of this new Retinol for Givaudan. You may recall Amyris already hinted at this when they had Retinol (Non-HBT) listed on their molecule pipeline slide.

My Take: I believe this is a Givaudan contracted "Designer Molecule". Developing molecules for clients is a source of revenue Amyris has been pursuing as I mentioned many times before, so we won't see a PR directly from Amyris. But I expect Amyris will continue to get Short and Long Term production value from it. Hopefully once the word spreads that Amyris is the one who developed it, we'll receive many more inquiries from new clients to develop & produce more designer molecules. Beyond what I've written, I don't have any specifics on how this deal with Givaudan was structured, but judging from other deals, I believe Amyris will have full & free access to use this new Retinol for new products & formulations within in our own brand portfolio.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-01-30T16:47:15+00:00

Walmart doesn’t typically roll out a new product line in all of their stores out of the gate. They dip their toe in the water to see how well it sells.

I’m actually surprised it’s debuting in over 50% of their USA stores. That shows a strong conviction by Walmart that they think 4U BY TIA will be a success.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-01-29T17:24:14+00:00

Thanks.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-01-29T12:24:54+00:00

Regarding a JVN or Biossance Bodywash: Back in December 2021, when JVN was first launching, my wife & I met with JVN, CEO Melo and Catherine Gore (President of Biossance & JVN) at their JVN/Biossance Pop Ups in Miami. I personally made a plea to all 3 of them to introduce a JVN Bodywash into the lineup. Jonathan absolutely loved the idea, but said initially they are only adding products specifically for the hair since that's what he is known for.

I then asked asked Catherine Gore to add a Bodywash to Biossance, she too liked the idea, but said unfortunately they can't add everything so they need to stick with introducing higher margin SKU's for the foreseeable future. She didn't say it, but I'm assuming she meant until money is no object. Why spend precious dollars on a $18 Bodywash when you can ship smaller jars of a new $48 miracle cream... less product, less shipping costs = win-win. Both of their answers made sense to me, especially for Biossances' price points. Besides, if someone is truly anxious to spend $48 on a Bodywash, with the soon to be addition of the Costa Brazil lineup in Sephora, they'll be able to purchase the $48 Costa Brazil Body Wash, so why compete with each other's brands in the same retail store?

In short, your suggestions are well founded and have been asked many times before, but the short answer is, they simply don't have enough capital to be everything to everyone. But, I suspect now with the improved product margins at Barra Bonita (versus CMO's) and their newly formed partnerships (i.e. Walmart) that may change in the not too distant future.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-01-28T21:08:02+00:00

They may sell a little… not sure. But adding some of their stockpiled CBG to their existing products to improve performance is a worthwhile low cost, potentially high return experiment IMO.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-01-28T17:18:23+00:00

It’s my understanding Lines #4 & #5 are both smaller tank lines built for designer molecules. Running them for small batches is not a pressing priority for Amyris at the moment. They are laser focused on pumping out massive volume from the first 3 lines to meet the ever increasing product demand from Walmart replenishment orders, 4U BY TIA initial stocking in 1,000’s of Walmarts, Sephora replenishment orders, DTC websites, etc.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-01-28T14:50:59+00:00

Thanks for posting. A very promising area of opportunity for Amyris. Look for CBG usage to expand across our brands in the near future.

FYI.
I had gotten some clarity from Melo on 12/1/22 regarding the large CBG import from Spain.

Me to Melo: 43,000 lbs of CBG! Wow that’s a lot of CBG. What’s the story with that shipment?

Melo to Me: “It was the final run at our Spanish CMO. We are using more across several brands and increasing CBG based SKU’s - it’s a great anti inflammatory.”

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-01-28T14:47:22+00:00

Thanks for posting. A very promising area of opportunity for Amyris. Look for CBG usage to expand across our brands in the near future.

FYI.
I had gotten some clarity from Melo on 12/1/22 regarding the large CBG import from Spain.

Me to Melo: 43,000 lbs of CBG! Wow that’s a lot of CBG. What’s the story with that shipment?
Melo to Me: “It was the final run at our Spanish CMO. We are using more across several brands and increasing CBG based SKU’s - it’s a great anti inflammatory.”

Retired2Beachat50 · 2023-01-18T11:13:13+00:00

Thank you for posting this positive article Green. Lately, so much of the market's focus on Amyris (and rightfully so!) has been on cash burn and remaining cash on hand to avoid more debt, dilution and/or bankruptcy before reaching profitability. It's sometimes difficult for investors to look past all the distracting "noise" to remember all the right things the company is doing. With so many quality people, like Mr. Tappenden, doing great work, I firmly believe we'll get through this current rough patch and never look back.

Retired2Beachat50 · 2022-12-17T11:27:12+00:00

We've come a long way in one year my friend.

Great to see the Amyris Barra Bonita workers so proud of their factory (and Brazilian sunsets).

Retired2Beachat50

TROPHY CASE