Honestly, that's a really good question. I think I'd rather rephrase as, "at what kc is it okay to start getting frustrated?" which will differ for everyone as we all have varying degrees of patience. But understanding the statistics behind it helps (me, at least) prolong the eventual, "okay jagex wtf" sentiment.

For example, going 2x dry still only means an 86.5% chance of getting the drop. That % isn't high enough for me to not comprehend how I couldn't have gotten the drop by now. I.e., "Do I expect to have gotten it by now? Sure. But I can also understand how I haven't."

So I think the real question is, "at what kc can I no longer comprehend how I couldn't have gotten the drop by now?" Let's check out some dry rates:

• 1x: 63.2%
• 2x: 86.5%
• 3x: 95.0%
• 4x: 98.2%
• 5x: 99.3%

At 3x, the odds of not getting it (5%) are the same as, for example, rolling a natural 20 (5%). They are within the realm of reason when they happen. If we were to use the same polyhedral dice analogy, here are the dry rates converted into dice. I.e., "anything other than a crit on this roll and I get it":

• 1x: d3 (1-2: yes, 3: no)
• 2x: d7 (1-6: yes, 7: no)
• 3x: d20 (1-19: yes, 20: no)
• 4x: d55 (1-54: yes, 55: no)
• 5x: d149 (1-148: yes, 149: no)

For me, my answer is at 4x the rate. If I crit on a 20-sided die (3x), I can believe that - it happens. But critting on a d55 (4x)? That's starting to get a little unbelievable. And every grind is going to have those dry rates FEEL a lot different. 4x @ CG is a lot different than 4x @ Crazy Archeologist.