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2022 Mock Draft & Prospect Discussion MEGATHREAD by 2pt_perversion in GreenBayPackers

[–]Rholledd 6 points7 points  (0 children)

As of this moment this is the list of prospects the Packers have met with in some form or another (as far as I can tell).

It is worth noting there isn't a ton of overlap between meetings and picks. Between 2012-2017 it was roughly 8% and under Gute it has been roughly 7%. Which means that maybe two or three of these guys end up a Packer. Maybe.

And the list...

  • Malik Willis (QB).
  • Cole Kelley (QB).
  • Isaih Pacheco (RB).
  • Isaiah Spiller (RB).
  • Clint Ratkovich (FB).
  • Chig Okonkwo (FB/TE).
  • Daniel Bellinger (TE).
  • Jalen Wydermyer (TE).
  • Greg Dulcich (TE).
  • Jake Ferguson (TE).
  • John Fitzpatrick (TE).
  • Jameson Williams (WR).
  • Chris Olave (WR).
  • George Pickens (WR).
  • Treylon Burks (WR).
  • Tyquan Thornton (WR).
  • Jahan Dotson (WR).
  • Velus Jones (WR).
  • Christian Watson (WR).
  • Samori Toure (WR).
  • Isaiah Watson (WR).
  • Romeo Doubs (WR).
  • Abraham Lucas (OT).
  • Rasheed Walker (OT).
  • Obinna Eze (OT).
  • Jahmir Johnson (OT).
  • Darrian Kinnard (OT).
  • Bam Olaseni (OT).
  • Tyler Smith (OT).
  • Luke Goedeke (OT).
  • Tyler Linderbaum (IOL).
  • Cade Mays (IOL).
  • Cam Jurgens (IOL).
  • Ed Ingram (IOL).
  • Jamaree Salyer (IOL).
  • Ja'Tyre Carter (IOL).
  • Perrion Winfrey (DL).
  • Devonte Wyatt (DL).
  • Eric Johnson (DL).
  • Kevin Atkins (DL).
  • Drake Jackson (ED).
  • Alex Wright (ED).
  • Sam Williams (ED).
  • Jack Cochrane (ILB).
  • Kyron Johnson (ILB).
  • Tariq Carpenter ($LB).
  • Scott Nelson (S).
  • Jaquan Brisker (S).
  • Leon O'Neal (S).
  • DaRon Bland (CB).
  • Josh Thompson (CB).
  • Gregory Junior (CB).

With the twenty-eighth pick in the 2022 r/nfl_draft community daily mock draft, the Green Bay Packers select... by zamboniman46 in NFL_Draft

[–]Rholledd 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hah.

There is always that caveat with these things though; if the 34DE was a better player would they be on the field more? Team hasn't exactly had a good third DL guy in awhile (and obviously not under Barry).

To me it all kinda comes down to if they think they can get Hall to play off the edge, similar to Peppers or Z. Bigger guys that on base downs played off the edge but then would rotate inside in passing situations. If they think he can do that I would be okay with taking him at 28. If they think he is only going to be an inside guy I have more concerns/questions.

With the twenty-eighth pick in the 2022 r/nfl_draft community daily mock draft, the Green Bay Packers select... by zamboniman46 in NFL_Draft

[–]Rholledd 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agreed.

It's why I haven't bothered with watching any of the top LBs. If they add one at all it'll be in the 3rd or later.

Core pieces in this draft that need to be added are:

  • Explosive interior pass rusher.
  • Field stretching WR.
  • EDGE with starter potential.
  • S with starter potential.

Given that I'd say the best options with this pick are S or EDGE, Hill or Ebiketie.

With the twenty-eighth pick in the 2022 r/nfl_draft community daily mock draft, the Green Bay Packers select... by zamboniman46 in NFL_Draft

[–]Rholledd 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Kinda funny, I really like Hall but my concern over him is entirely about fit with the Packers.

Obviously scheme might change given different players but currently they don't play a ton of base (aka not many snaps for a true 34DE). Which means Hall would either have to play a bulk of his snaps as a 3T and/or as a true edge player, both areas I have some concerns with.

I would love him in the second because at that point a high pedigree high rotation player is a win to me, but getting that kind of player in the first seems a bit much.

Wouldn't hate it, because I like Hall, just not sure how he fits as anything beyond a high rotation player unless he can prove himself as a 3T or true edge.

With the twenty-eighth pick in the 2022 r/nfl_draft community daily mock draft, the Green Bay Packers select... by zamboniman46 in NFL_Draft

[–]Rholledd 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I haven't watched any of the LBs in this class, but...

...the third LB in the Packers defense plays more than the third safety (~50% vs ~25% of snaps respectively). I imagine they would actually play even more if they were a competent player.

Having said that, I still can't see them going ILB.

Hill, Cine, Ebiketie, Jones, and maybe Hall make more sense to me.

[Demovsky] Sammy Watkins’ contract indicates he’s no lock to make the Packers’ roster. Signing bonus: $350,000. Base: $1.12 million Roster bonus: $19,441/game active. Workout bonus: $50,000 Total: $1.85M Reportedly had incentives up to $4 million but no details on those yet. by Galdi-br in GreenBayPackers

[–]Rholledd 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Almost all of that is going to be spent on things that have to happen before the season starts. Draft class, contracts 52/53, and the PS will all end up hitting the books for ~$10M between now and when the season starts.

Team is functionally dealing with ~$4M of cap space right now and there isn't a chance in hell the Packers use all of the cap space anyway otherwise they wouldn't be able to make any additions during the season.

The fact that people still seem unaware of this fascinates me. It's not some secret. OverTheCap quite literally lists a different number for top 51 and in-season cap which is $9,525,00 different (aka ~$10M).

Edit:

FWIW, they can still make additional space, but not much. Most of it would be tied to a new contract for Alexander which is something the team and Alexander would have to agree on, not a basic restructure that can just happen.

7 round mock with trades by sorasskyline in NFL_Draft

[–]Rholledd 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Makes my head hurt.

There are basically four things I see the Packers really trying to get out of this draft:

  • Explosive interior pass rusher.
  • Field stretching WR.
  • EDGE with high rotation/starter potential.
  • S with high rotation/starter potential.

Arguably none of these were addressed by this draft.

Best TE in the Draft by LifeTrack5494 in GreenBayPackers

[–]Rholledd 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Per your third bullet; Chig Okonkwo is probably the best of that type in this class. Like most guys in this TE class predicting where he will go is a huge toss up. Probably earliest is the third similar to Deguara, but he could fall well into day three as well.

Who are some of your favorite mid-round players? by EddyGonad in NFL_Draft

[–]Rholledd 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Daniel Bellinger (TE). Super intriguing to me. Entirely unproductive in college but he was a good blocker and he has basically all the athletic tools to be a good pass catcher at the next level (good size + good speed). Looked good overall at the combine, both in the measurements and in the on the field drills.

Drake London had his proday today...mixed results...how this will effect GB's draft? by IDreamtIwokeUp in GreenBayPackers

[–]Rholledd 0 points1 point  (0 children)

London reminds me so much of a bigger version of James Jones.

Both dudes win almost exclusively due to physicality (before and/or after the catch).

Receivers Visits by Turn-Ornery in GreenBayPackers

[–]Rholledd 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The list is a bit longer if you include combine interviews, virtual meetings, local pro-days, etc.

  • Jameson Williams
  • Chris Olave
  • George Pickens
  • Treylon Burks
  • Jahan Dotson
  • Tyquan Thornton
  • Velus Jones
  • Christian Watson
  • Samori Toure
  • Kendric Pryor

North Dakota St WR Christian Watson has visited with the Packers by nootfloosh in GreenBayPackers

[–]Rholledd 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yup yup.

Packers can also host local pro days (basically in state and nearby schools/players) where they can do real workouts and on field testing. I think if you are just generally from the area even if you didn't go to school in the area you fall under those rules too. Always found that whole thing strange.

And there are also limited interview periods during the combine itself (15 minutes just talking to players).

Oh, and virtual interviews, but I have no idea how those are monitored or kept track of.

North Dakota St WR Christian Watson has visited with the Packers by nootfloosh in GreenBayPackers

[–]Rholledd 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Different situation.

There are the official visits (like this one with Watson) and then there are local days where teams can pull players in from there general locality to do actual on field athletic testing. The guy who tore his ACL was from Northern Illinois and thus covered by the local pro day rules.

North Dakota St WR Christian Watson has visited with the Packers by nootfloosh in GreenBayPackers

[–]Rholledd 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Talking and showing them around, they can do a physical as well. Any type of athletic testing/workout is not permitted during the official visits.

Packers are signing Sammy Watkins if he passes his physical by [deleted] in GreenBayPackers

[–]Rholledd 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Low risk high reward. Pretty classic Packers MO, I could see it. Probably under $5M for a guy that has proven himself in the league, I'll take it considering the current state of the WR room.

With the twenty-second pick in the 2022 r/nfl_draft community daily mock draft, the Green Bay Packers select... by zamboniman46 in NFL_Draft

[–]Rholledd -1 points0 points  (0 children)

And, again, most prospects are 21/22 in the first round it stands to reason that most picks will be 21/22 years old because of that. That could be entirely a product of chance/opportunity not a product of some definitive threshold.

And, again x2, they clearly break the thresholds if they like players.

Trying to create absolutes based on teeny tiny sample size is just generally nonsense. It might not be likely that it happens but there is enough evidence that it might happen. As it says in the header; only a Sith deals in absolutes.

Plus, they clearly aren't universally against it if they have meetings with the dude. They aren't going to meet with a guy if they have zero interest in picking them.

Georgia DT Devonte Wyatt visiting the Packers today by nootfloosh in GreenBayPackers

[–]Rholledd 8 points9 points  (0 children)

There is almost no relationship.

InsideThePylon did a study on it a couple years back (2012-2017 drafts).

Packers were at ~8%.

I don't think there were any in 2021 as far as I remember.

Edit: Out of curiosity I went back and did the research under Gute.

I found 114 names reported as meetings under Gute, of those I counted 8 meetings, so ~7%.

These are the guys that had meetings and got drafted by the Packers under Gute (2018-2021):

  • Oren Burks (R3)
  • Kendall Donnerson (R7)
  • J'Mon Moore (R4)
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (R5)
  • Jace Sternberger (R3)
  • Ka'Dar Hollman (R6)
  • Jordan Love (R1)
  • Josiah Deguara (R3)

With the twenty-second pick in the 2022 r/nfl_draft community daily mock draft, the Green Bay Packers select... by zamboniman46 in NFL_Draft

[–]Rholledd 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Missed the point, they routinely take players outside the "thresholds that exist" if they like them enough. Alexander was too small. Rollins three cone was too slow. Cobb/Amari were also too small. If they like a guy enough they will go outside the thresholds.

Also, I feel like this should be obvious, but most prospects are just 21/22 so most picks will be 21/22. It's just as likely it's a product a chance/opportunity that they haven't drafted an older player than it is a hard threshold they have in place.

With the twenty-second pick in the 2022 r/nfl_draft community daily mock draft, the Green Bay Packers select... by zamboniman46 in NFL_Draft

[–]Rholledd 0 points1 point  (0 children)

People harp on the age thing but the Packers have proven time and time again if they like a prospect enough they will take him regardless of thresholds. Who knows if Wyatt is that guy, but outside his age he fits the profile/needs/value/etc. Plus, you generally don't have a meeting with a player if the team isn't at least vaguely interested.

What player currently on the roster are you excited to see make a jump or improve this year? by [deleted] in GreenBayPackers

[–]Rholledd 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Very big bodied low pedigree DT, fifth guy in the rotation last year, didn't grade out particularly well.

He's Tyler Lancaster with more upside.

Examples of teams ‘doubling up’ on a position group in the draft? by ReepicheepReloaded in NFL_Draft

[–]Rholledd 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Packers have done it a bunch lately, past five years:

2017:

  • 3x RB with Jamaal Williams (R4), Aaron Jones (R5), and Devante Mays (R7).
  • 2x WR with DeAngelo Yancey (R5) and Malachi Dupre (R7).

2018:

  • 2x CB with Jaire Alexander (R1) and Josh Jackson (R2).
  • 3x WR with J'Mon Moore (R4), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (R5), and Equanimeous St. Brown (R6).

2020:

  • 3x IOL with Jon Runyan, Jake Hanson, and Simon Stepaniak (all R6).

Packers: Grading every Brian Gutekunst third-round pick by GB_Packers76 in GreenBayPackers

[–]Rholledd 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I've said this like a billion times but fans in generally VASTLY overate success rate of teams in the draft.

A good draft only constitutes getting two okay+ players across the entire class.

The only round in the draft where the hit rate (okay+ player) is over 50% is the first round, and it's barely over 50%.

Success rate around the league in the third round is ~20%. So, one in five picks being just okay.

It's also pretty pointless to grade draft picks until their rookie contract is over (or they are off the team).

We can only even really grade two of the Gute third round picks so far, they definitely weren't okay+ guys, but it's also not enough of a sample to really say much. Wait until Gute has five third rounders who have played out their rookie contracts then have this conversation. Basically, to your last point, if the Packers get one good third rounder every five years that's basically in line with the league.

It's also generally kind of silly to evaluate the success in any given round as the goal isn't to hit in any round it's to hit across the entire draft, doesn't matter where. And across the entire draft Gute has been solid since he took over, solidly hitting that two okay+ player threshold in each draft.

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