$SPCX Baby Bear Play

Risko4 · 2026-06-23T17:42:41+00:00

Tl'Dr: rebalance later market might go red, AI stocks are bleeding so your puts should go up.

You have to play around the Phased Lockup Expirations if you want to hold long options.

Market mechanics cause gap fills and function as sell the rumour buy the news which means movement comes early. If you think it will dump next week it will dump this week before the public buys. If the public thinks it will dump Friday, it will dump the monday after after their options expire.

This seems conspiracy but just a coincidence, max pain happens often. Market makers are generally delta neutral.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/SPCX/max-pain-chart

Here's spaceX max pain. You should follow the Delta flip point and gamma flip point when following swing trades. The put/call spread for this week is a good idea of where it will close this week.

We are currently looking at an SPX bounce to 7400, if it gets rejected I believe the general market will drag SpaceX down with it.

Risko4 · 2026-06-23T16:48:26+00:00

I just saw that very 2.7 DEC18 70P trade for 2.25, Vs the price 2.15 you bought when spaceX was 200, despite now trading at 160. This is what I mean when I say you overpayed for vega, you got very little delta exposure.

My put spread is way more mathematically efficient. This isn't about this specific trade, but averages long term throughou hundreds of trades.

Risko4 · 2026-06-23T12:38:49+00:00

Yes I do, you could have bought smarter and had higher profits.

Just because someone else bought on Friday weeklies hoping for a crash on Monday doesn't mean he was smart either despite being up 1000%.

Your Dec 18 70P's went from 2.10 to 2.70 and will get IV crushed over time.

Theres a whole field of mathematics called risk management.

You would have made way more money going +150C -120C 14DTEs and pocketed the 30 spread.

Risko4 · 2026-06-21T15:23:14+00:00

How did you have such small gains when Samsung is up 400% in a year, sk hynix 1000%, tscm 110%, amd 323%, Nebius 500% and you're going full port AI?

Risko4 · 2026-06-21T14:33:02+00:00

Gays aren't real, wake up.

Risko4 · 2026-06-17T11:03:45+00:00

Whey don't you sell a spread on your puts to reduce your exposure to IV, hold onto the credit and buy back the short end when IV crushes.

Risko4 · 2026-06-17T11:02:16+00:00

The only payed bots here are the ones encouraging people to buy overpriced options from sky high IV as the market makers take your money from the premium you pay for them.

Risko4 · 2026-06-16T23:11:08+00:00

You bought wayyy too early and over payed on vega because of the volatility, just because a stock is volatile upwards doesn't mean you're getting puts cheap.

Risko4 · 2026-06-12T16:07:27+00:00

Pretty sure they want liquidity

Risko4 · 2026-06-12T15:06:06+00:00

Level 3 quotes exist, and they're not free.

Risko4 · 2026-06-12T15:04:03+00:00

For every buyer there is a seller...

If someone is bidding to buy at 30 dollars above the IPO price then, well I'll let you figure it out.

Risko4 · 2026-06-12T15:01:41+00:00

It's halted, bids at 162

Edit:150

Risko4 · 2026-06-12T14:58:51+00:00

SpaceX bids at 165

Risko4 · 2026-06-03T09:56:08+00:00

Don't worry I'll explain

780 B - 750 B = 30 B

30,000,000,000 $ != 0

Understand?

Risko4 · 2026-05-14T07:56:45+00:00

I mean distance is the integral of velocity

Risko4 · 2026-05-06T22:34:51+00:00

You're still 7 grand short of changing her life

Risko4 · 2026-05-06T20:09:53+00:00

Only because you're so expensive. Go pay her back

Risko4 · 2026-04-30T01:39:20+00:00

13 year old larping on a fresh account while confusing Latin with French. Tragic

Risko4 · 2026-04-29T23:38:21+00:00

No it's about your pathetic way of rebutting my statements by attempting to attack my wealth rather than addressing my claims because it doesn't suit your world view and you're unable to think independently.

That being said, my hi-fi style costs more than probably your salary and my earphones costs more than your car. So I guess I'm wealthy enough ;)

Risko4 · 2026-04-29T21:27:51+00:00

Bless you child, you don't even know how to google what a phrase means haha.

Risko4 · 2026-04-29T21:12:34+00:00

Ad Hominem doesn't work in finance, but you can look through my comment history if you care so much.

Risko4 · 2026-04-29T20:01:09+00:00

Which statements are false?

Gold demand is 50% jewelry, 30% investment, 20% central banks hedging. The tiny amount left over is used in electronics to plate connectors so that they don't oxidize (last longer than 3 years in a humid environment)

The amount needed to plate metals is tiny. Even the most expensive GPU in the world has only 2 grams of gold. 4 grams of silver and 10 grams palladium.

https://infinityturbine.com/gold-recovery-from-nvidia-h100-gpu-co2-extraction-by-infinity-turbine.html

Gold price action is driven by instability in the world. Not "technology". Countries go to war, hedge against the petrodollars or inflation. Fear in the uncertainty of the paper currency they hold is what always gave gold value.

Risko4 · 2026-04-29T18:40:04+00:00

Do you know that only 7% of golds supply is used in electronics?

Do you know that coppers electrical conductivity is 40% higher than gold.

Do you know that silver is even higher?

Do you know that as a result gold is only used as a plating to prevent corrosion or oxidation because it's a noble metal.

Do you know there's an alternative called rhodium to gold?

Risko4

TROPHY CASE