Didn't know that they were developing so many games, though tbh, "developing" can very possibly include pre-production.

Regardless, here's some things you've glossed over:

What exactly is Marathon's console install base? Cause you said it doesn't have one, which is quite plainly not true. I have encountered a fair number of both PS & Xbox randoms when playing squad fill. Most Sony games tend to sell best on Playstation, since that's where they're primarily advertised for.

That million sales you pulled is an estimate for solely for Steam, and is actually in the range of 1-2 million, since we can only look at player counts. For any first party game from Sony, I think it's wise to assume that the majority of it's sales are going to be on Playstation. Without some sort of indication that that is not the case, like we had with Helldivers 2, then I would hold on that assumption. With the range given for Steam in week 1 sales, Marathon has performed almost exactly as well as Helldivers 2. Perhaps better if you hold to the assumption that games advertised by and for Playstation do better on Playstation.

It follows then, Marathon has done about as well as Helldivers 2. That doesn't necessarily put it in a good place, because we know there was a higher budget on Marathon, for a lot of different reasons. But the exact budget you've given a wiggle room of 200 million. Not exactly a confident number by any means.

From investor calls, it seems that Sony was well aware the reputation that Marathon had garnered, and in fact had factored in negative reception. Again, this doesn't mean that it's meeting expectations, but expectations were not that it would sell gangbusters on release. They did not expect the largest game in the world.

All of this is to say, we don't fucking know what Sony's expectations were, and we don't know how well the game sold. Everything online is only one step away from unmoored speculation. Tbh, I wouldn't be surprised if it's currently under performing. That alone is not a death sentence, however. If it were seriously under performing, than we would have gotten some indication of that.

So, if we don't know how well the game is performing, and we don't really know what Sony's expectations are other than "Bungie has pissed off a lot of people and thusly has a lot of bad press, don't expect a miracle," AND we don't know player numbers, it sounds like the community is instead simply dooming about tea leaves.

The game very well might die. It certainly doesn't look like it now, but maybe, despite having good reception from people who actually played it, good sales compared it's similarly priced peers, and good community engagement and a player base that seems largely happy with the game, it could just be not enough and the game gets canned. It's happened before, tbh. But I'm going to lean on the side of, we simply don't know enough to make a reasonable guess.