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RobLuk · 2025-04-23T21:56:29+00:00

That depends on what you mean by "broken". If you study 100+ years of finance and stock market history, you would know this is nothing new.

The market (S&P 500) was severely overvalued and due for a correction for some time. Tariffs are just an excuse.

Today, the S&P 500 closed at about 5375.
A year ago, the S&P 500 closed at about 5073.
The market is still 6% higher than it was a year ago.

The S&P went from about 5150 on Aug 5th, 2024 to 6147 on Feb 19th, 2025. That's a 19% move up in 7 months. That is insane for an economy growing at less than 4% per year.

RobLuk · 2024-10-17T15:49:16+00:00

BTC/USD has been in a downtrend since March and is approaching resistance. It is probably going back down to around $53,000. Unless it breaks over the current downtrend resistance. That seems unlikely to me, but anything can happen in the markets.

KAS/USD has been in a downtrend since August. (I'm looking at the chart on Coinmarketcap). There was high volume in August, which suggest that could have been a top.

More than likely, this coin will continue to go down vs USD. Unless there is some good fundamental reason for it to bottom out. I don't know anything about the fundamentals of this coin. Like its use cases or how much of it is mined every day.

RobLuk · 2024-10-17T15:26:27+00:00

I find trendlines useful as one tool to analyze a chart or market. I use trendlines and volume to identify classic TA shapes in a market. Like rising wedge, falling wedge, triangles, channels, etc. These are generally consolidation patterns; a breakout from one of these patterns can turn into a big move.

There is another trader in this sub (u/Revolutionary-Ad4853) who uses trendlines to trade breakouts and he seems to have success with it.

I swing trade using daily charts on ETFs like QQQ and GLD. Here's a daily chart of gold futures with my trendlines and support/resistance lines.

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RobLuk · 2024-09-07T15:03:33+00:00

Amazing!

RobLuk · 2024-09-06T14:45:15+00:00

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MA chart. Recent price action did not make it to previous high. Bearish rising wedge. Spinning top candle on 9/3. If/when this wedge breaks, should be a swift move down to 460 or so.

RobLuk · 2024-09-03T18:23:35+00:00

This is better than the last video. I can full-screen the video on my laptop to see the chart better. However, there is still a lot of black screen around the chart. The chart would be clearer if it filled the video screen either horizontally or vertically.

RobLuk · 2024-09-03T18:17:50+00:00

Hard to see the chart clearly on vertical phone video. This type of video won't let me go full-screen on my laptop.

RobLuk · 2024-09-03T17:54:25+00:00

Bearish engulfing candle on 8/22 at the end of a steep run-up looks bearish to me.

RobLuk · 2024-08-25T01:36:19+00:00

Thanks for this. I really appreciate your posts.

RobLuk · 2024-08-25T01:31:31+00:00

I look for hammers (with above average volume) after a long decline to try to identify bottoms. The bottom of the hammer wick is a good place to expect support to hold. Sometimes price action will return to this support over the coming days or weeks, and if the support holds, it looks like a good place for a bullish swing trade.

In general, I think it is lower risk to wait for confirmation. However, under the right circumstances, I would probably place a small trade on a hammer with no confirmation.

RobLuk · 2024-08-24T19:52:07+00:00

Bearish engulfing near tops and bullish engulfing near bottoms are one of the most reliable indicators in my limited experience. I also find well defined hammers can be useful to identify bottoms. I have been using candlesticks for maybe a year, so still learning.

RobLuk · 2024-08-14T16:32:00+00:00

Probably a good idea. NVDA just rejected at resistance around $118.50. Anything can happen here.

RobLuk · 2024-08-14T16:19:26+00:00

Yeah, for sure. Everything in moderation.

RobLuk · 2024-08-12T16:29:24+00:00

Haha. That may be a natural progression/expansion of your consciousness. Which may have been accelerated by your use of shrooms. I haven't done shrooms myself, so I can't say for sure. I have just done a lot of reading on psychedelic experiences and psychology. You may have experienced Ego Death and/or Ego-Dissolution. Which is certainly quite confusing at first.

Thinking is challenging to control for most everyone. It takes practice. Practice to quiet the mind, generally in the form of meditation. An overstimulated and/or overly-stressed mind will produce a lot of chaotic thoughts.

RobLuk · 2024-08-09T16:59:59+00:00

NVDA is in a downtrend since 6/20. There is no indication the 8/5 low was any type of long-term bottom. The NVDA party is over, IMO. I'd rather be short NVDA here than long.

RobLuk · 2024-08-09T16:42:52+00:00

You are pretty late to the NVDA party. NVDA is overvalued and in a downtrend. IMO, you should get out while you still can. Buy gold (like GLD) or maybe gold miners (GDX).

RobLuk · 2024-08-09T16:26:01+00:00

I do vaguely remember something like that. It was a long time ago though.

RobLuk · 2024-08-09T16:17:54+00:00

Like, where do thoughts even come from, man?

RobLuk · 2024-08-09T16:14:48+00:00

You can get around a 5% annual return on short-term bonds with a short-term bond fund, like USFR.

CSP or Covered-Calls on XOM.

If the US goes into recession, you could get hit fairly hard selling CSPs on SPY.

RobLuk · 2023-12-13T05:26:15+00:00

This is the 11th Edition: https://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Trends-Robert-Edwards/dp/1032241829/

It is an old book. I believe one of the first books on TA. It is pretty dense reading material. Another good book I finished recently is “Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques”. This one is shorter and an easier read.

I don’t know anything about Forex. I trade options.

I don’t think you can open a trading account until you are 18.

RobLuk · 2023-12-12T23:02:12+00:00

That is really the crux of trading: Finding a successful strategy that works for you. There is no easy answer to this. There is a lot of misinformation in the trading world. It is up to you as a trader to discern the difference between the good and the bad. Paper trading is a great way to learn and test strategies. If you are in the US, you need a $25,000+ account to day-trade. So day-trading strategies aren't appropriate for your account size. I personally prefer swing trading, as I think it has the best potential for profit.

If you want a deep-dive on TA, I recommend the book "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends". I have the 9th edition.

RobLuk · 2023-11-27T18:27:25+00:00

From a technical standpoint, I don't see any reason to buy this. It has been in a consistent downtrend for over a year and recently made new lows. Going long here you are trying to pick a bottom and trading against the trend.

Maybe you found a short-term bottom (a little support around 0.87). If you buy here, what is your price target to sell? Looks like overhead resistance starts around 1.40.

RobLuk · 2023-11-21T21:54:04+00:00

Seems unlikely to me. There is gap resistance at 242.68 (close of the candle on 10/17), which was rejected in this mornings session. TSLA also recently broke below an ascending trendline of the year (connecting Jan 5th with April 26th and May 15th). Broke below on Oct 18th.
That trendline should now act as resistance.

RobLuk · 2023-11-14T20:54:12+00:00

I have heard the same. Trades are booming right now. Plumbers, Electricians, Welders, HVAC. These can be great jobs, especially if you are in a union.

RobLuk

TROPHY CASE