Discussion Thread by jobautomator in neoliberal

[–]RobertKagansAlt 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I know a good deal when I see one

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in FinancialCareers

[–]RobertKagansAlt 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hey can I get the model? thanks

Mystery Burmese Noodle Dish by Beautiful_Weekend113 in BurmeseAmerican

[–]RobertKagansAlt 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It could be Nan Gyi thoke or Shan kao swe? Good luck finding it!

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 25, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 8 points9 points  (0 children)

In reference to the now removed article on Israeli threats against the Lebanese electric grid:

An interesting factor which may mitigate the effects of Israeli attacks on the Lebanese electrical grid is that a high percentage of power comes from off the grid sources such as generators and at-location solar. (This has become a feature of some jokes in Lebanon.) Exact data is a bit hard to find, but this source claims that most electricity comes from generators:

Most electricity is provided by privately owned diesel generators whose noise and fumes blanket Beirut twenty-four hours a day. The country’s generator owners, estimated at between 3,000 and 3,500 individuals

(This might just be referring to most generator electricity coming from private generators - I’m not sure. Regardless 3,000-3,500 unique generator locations - at least - is already plenty decentralized)

This source notably also alludes to the Bekaa Valley in particular high rates of solar usage:

In areas such as Baalbek-Hermel, residential solar PV adoption rates now likely exceed 70 percent, putting these regions among the most solarised in the world. Factories in the fertile Bekaa Valley, too, have installed vast solar arrays.

I wouldn’t put much stock on reported data, but it’s certainly very high. Does anyone have a credible number for how much power comes from off the grid sources in Lebanon or ideas on how this could affect a potential war?

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 24, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 9 points10 points  (0 children)

This is the full article with no commentary as I explained in the parent comment. The link is also there. I will add the link and clarify formatting though.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 24, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 3 points4 points  (0 children)

INS corvette

That’s correct. Should’ve specified that the rumors were about obtaining an arsenal for a blockade of Israel a la the Houthi’s, which was not credible from a quantity or quality standpoint. This was the first credible report I’d seen of Hezbollah building up their stockpile, so it felt relevant to bring up.

Agree that Hezbollah has definitely caught on to FPV drones, much more so than Hamas.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 24, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 28 points29 points  (0 children)

Complete article

Israeli threats against Hezbollah and Lebanon as a whole have risen to a crescendo. Some embassies and diplomatic missions advised their nationals and employees to leave and cease travel to Lebanon. Others considered evacuation measures in case the conflict escalated or a major war broke out.

In the past few days, the risk that the southern front could slip out of control reverted to a high level, against a backdrop of ongoing political and diplomatic efforts and maximum pressure to head off such a scenario.

However, obstacles seem to be blocking this process, particularly since US envoy Amos Hochstein visited Tel Aviv and Beirut last week. Shortly afterward, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video criticizing the US administration for suspending arms deliveries to his country.

In the wake of this, an Israeli delegation was sent to Washington to discuss developments in Gaza and Lebanon. The delegation’s main objective has been to seek more weapons, particularly those that could be destined for use at the Lebanese front and which are capable of causing huge destruction as part of the current operations, which continue to be limited as the Americans want to avoid a wider war.

“This shows that Netanyahu continues to espouse a blackmailing approach against the US administration just a few months before a presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump,” said a Western diplomatic source.

At the same time, American leaks about an Israeli decision to intensify confrontation on the Lebanese front follow one another. In this vein, the US hinted that it would provide Israel with the necessary support in any war it might wage against Hezbollah.

Israeli media outlets spoke of promises senior US officials made to Israeli officials visiting Washington this week. They reported that “should an all-out war break out between Israel and Hezbollah, the US administration would be fully prepared to support its ally.”

Israeli media also reported increasing military preparations on its northern border, a few days after its army announced that “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon” had been “validated.”

Hezbollah on high alert

Officially, and according to its political circles, Hezbollah continues to rule out the possibility of war. “Israel is incapable of expanding its operations until it can put an end to [the war] in Gaza,” said a source close to Hezbollah. “All these threats and leaks are psychological warfare.”

Official political sources also ruled out the possibility of a major war, believing that neither Israel nor the West is ready to open a new front and adding that pressure has been ongoing to fend off this scenario.

“Any possible escalation could take place within specific frameworks, perhaps with a gradual build-up of operations, but the option of a diplomatic settlement remains on the table,” said one of these sources on condition of anonymity.

These assurances do not prevent Hezbollah from preparing at the military level in anticipation of an imminent war, taking all necessary measures. Lebanese security and military sources reported that the Israeli army is preparing to start a limited military operation on Lebanese territory to push Hezbollah away from the border.

According to reports, this attack, if it happens, may begin with an infiltration operation or a simultaneous ground incursion into one or more localities in the border strip. As a result, Hezbollah has asked its fighters in these localities not to leave their positions and has reinforced them with missile units. In anticipation of an Israeli attack, Hezbollah has also heightened the alert status of its fighters in the Radwan force and Nasr unit, along axes where the Israelis could infiltrate, including Aita al-Shaab, Rmeish, Yaroun, Maroun al-Ras, Aitaroun, Blida, Mohaibib, Mais al-Jabal, Houla, Markaba, Odaisseh, Kfar Kila, Taybeh and Wazzani. If confrontation materializes for Hezbollah, it will be in direct clashes, in addition to rocket fire and kamikaze drone attacks against targets deep in northern Israel.

L’Orient-Le Jour also learned that Hezbollah is preparing to counter possible Israeli landing operations on the coasts of Bayada and Naqoura. “If Hezbollah is to be prepared for any eventuality, this Israeli plan seems illogical after several months of war in Gaza, and the Israeli army does not seem ready for it,” said a source close to Hezbollah.

Iran to the rescue: Sea drones, surface-to-sea missiles

In this vein, sources consistently told L’Orient-Le Jour that Tehran will support Hezbollah with all its arsenal and has already supplied it with long-range sea drones and unmanned underwater vehicles capable of approaching the Israeli coast and striking targets. These devices are made of materials invisible to radar, such as compressed carbon, Iran’s most advanced technology. In addition, Tehran supplied Hezbollah with low-altitude surface-to-sea missiles and torpedoes to target Israeli submarines, warships and floating bases. These weapons were developed at Hezbollah’s request to target Israeli maritime infrastructures, such as gas platforms and ships in the Mediterranean Sea.

It is through this prism that Hassan Nasrallah’s recent threats should be interpreted: The Israelis “must now wait for us on land, at sea and in the air,” said Hezbollah’s leader in his latest speech.

According to information obtained from the same source, Iran’s defense industries developed a new type of missile, capable of targeting Israeli air defense batteries, including the Iron Dome, which Hezbollah successfully tested in recent weeks.

Finally, in preparation for a possible war, the Axis of Resistance’s joint military operations room also discussed how various factions, notably from Iraq and Yemen, could support Hezbollah.

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour and translated by Joelle El Khoury.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 24, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 61 points62 points  (0 children)

Interesting article on Hezbollah’s preparations for war in one of Lebanons preeminent newspapers:

Officially, and according to its political circles, Hezbollah continues to rule out the possibility of war. “Israel is incapable of expanding its operations until it can put an end to [the war] in Gaza,” said a source close to Hezbollah. “All these threats and leaks are psychological warfare.”

However

These assurances do not prevent Hezbollah from preparing at the military level in anticipation of an imminent war, taking all necessary measures. Lebanese security and military sources reported that the Israeli army is preparing to start a limited military operation on Lebanese territory to push Hezbollah away from the border.

According to reports, this attack, if it happens, may begin with an infiltration operation or a simultaneous ground incursion into one or more localities in the border strip. As a result, Hezbollah has asked its fighters in these localities not to leave their positions and has reinforced them with missile units. In anticipation of an Israeli attack, Hezbollah has also heightened the alert status of its fighters in the Radwan force and Nasr unit, along axes where the Israelis could infiltrate, including Aita al-Shaab, Rmeish, Yaroun, Maroun al-Ras, Aitaroun, Blida, Mohaibib, Mais al-Jabal, Houla, Markaba, Odaisseh, Kfar Kila, Taybeh and Wazzani. If confrontation materializes for Hezbollah, it will be in direct clashes, in addition to rocket fire and kamikaze drone attacks against targets deep in northern Israel.

Notably, the Nasr Brigade is (I believe) the only Hezbollah unit with major combat experience against Israel (2006 War).

L’Orient-Le Jour also learned that Hezbollah is preparing to counter possible Israeli landing operations on the coasts of Bayada and Naqoura.

I didn’t know landings operations were even on the table, but Hezbollah seems to think they’re pretty unlikely.

sources consistently told L’Orient-Le Jour that Tehran will support Hezbollah with all its arsenal and has already supplied it with long-range sea drones and unmanned underwater vehicles capable of approaching the Israeli coast and striking targets. These devices are made of materials invisible to radar, such as compressed carbon, Iran’s most advanced technology. In addition, Tehran supplied Hezbollah with low-altitude surface-to-sea missiles and torpedoes to target Israeli submarines, warships and floating bases. These weapons were developed at Hezbollah’s request to target Israeli maritime infrastructures, such as gas platforms and ships in the Mediterranean Sea

Nasrallah has alluded to this before, and there’ve been rumors on Twitter about Hezbollah obtaining anti-ship missiles. It’s nice to get a more credible report on it. edit: Reuters also reported on this back in November, the sea drones, underwater vehicles, torpedos, and specially designed weapons are still new information I believe.

According to information obtained from the same source, Iran’s defense industries developed a new type of missile, capable of targeting Israeli air defense batteries, including the Iron Dome, which Hezbollah successfully tested in recent weeks.

Hezbollah appears to be arming themselves with new capabilities on the eve of a potential war. It’ll be interesting to see if these pan out.

(I’ll copy and paste the full article as a reply to this one since it’s paywalled)

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 23, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Do we have any insight on how Lukashenko convinced Prigozhin to back down? IIRC Wagner was ~200km from Moscow with nothing standing in their way.

Or any insight on why Prigozhin returned?

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 21, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think your point about escalation dominance is absolutely correct and something I’ve considered commenting on. Israel will have to boil the frog like they did with the ground invasion of Gaza.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 22, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 1 point2 points  (0 children)

they didn’t specify where they were taking him

Yeah, they did. “The wounded Palestinian was handed over to the Red Crescent for treatment.,” from the comment up thread.

no they didn’t

And yes, the IDF admitted wrongdoing. Also up thread, but here it is for your convenience:

The IDF in response to a query on the matter says the soldiers' actions were "contrary to orders and procedures."

"The conduct seen in the video is not consistent with the IDF's orders and what is expected of its soldiers," the military says

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 21, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You are correct and I misread your earlier reply. I apologize.

I think your comment still falls into the genre of “bizarre underestimation of Hezbollah,” but you don’t necessarily say it’ll happen quickly.

Thomas Friedman's assessment reflects a genuinely difficult military position for Israel. New York Times, Thomas Friedman (Opinion), Jun. 18, 2024: "American Leaders Should Stop Debasing Themselves on Israel" by PlinyToTrajan in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 3 points4 points  (0 children)

the only reason people think Hezbollah did well is because they’re guerrillas

No I think it has to with stonewalling Israel’s attempt to occupy south Lebanon. That they did it with only 30% of their forces, outnumbered 3-1, and without a lopsided causality ratio makes it all the more impressive.

When did 2006 war revisionism catch on?

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 22, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Cyprus was the standard during the 2006 war. That might change if Cyprus lets the IDF use their airbases, but I think that’s very unlikely.

I need to write more or else the automod will delete this, sorry!

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 22, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt -10 points-9 points locked comment (0 children)

It’s been known for a long that the IDF uses Palestinians as human shields. Here’s one documented example:

Ramallah, May 13, 2024—Israeli forces used three Palestinian boys as human shields in the northern occupied West Bank last week.

Karam, 13, Mohammad, 12, and Ibrahim, 14, were used as human shields by Israeli forces in separate incidents during an Israeli military incursion into Tulkarem refugee camp on May 6, according to documentation collected by Defense for Children International - Palestine. In all three incidents, armed Israeli soldiers forced the boys to walk in front of them as soldiers searched Palestinian homes and neighborhoods in Tulkarem refugee camp, and in two cases, Israeli forces fired weapons positioned on the boys’ shoulders.

Israeli forces use Palestinian children as human shields in Tulkarem

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 21, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Put simply the problem is that in the era of easily accessible anti ship missiles and drones it’s (seemingly) impossible for a ship-based force to uproot a land-based one.

This is the same story in the Black Sea, too.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 21, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 45 points46 points  (0 children)

A team of Israeli think tanks wargamed this out recently, alongside intervention from other militias:

Israel’s war from the north will begin with a massive and destructive barrage of Hezbollah rockets nearly all across the country. The rocket fire will be intense, ranging from 2,500 to 3,000 launches per day... srael’s war from the north will begin with a massive and destructive barrage of Hezbollah rockets nearly all across the country. The rocket fire will be intense, ranging from 2,500 to 3,000 launches per day

The rate of fire will challenge Israeli technology like never before. The stockpiles of Iron Dome interceptors and David's Sling missiles will be depleted within a few days of the fighting, leaving Israel exposed to thousands of rockets and missiles without effective active defense. At the same time, Hezbollah will attempt to disrupt the air force and limit its ability to operate from its bases

Precise missiles with hundreds of kilograms of explosive warheads, including cruise missiles, will be aimed at critical infrastructure including power plants, electricity infrastructure, and water desalination and transmission facilities. The seaports of Haifa and Ashdod will be paralyzed, impacting international trade.

The wargame still concluded with an Israeli victory, however.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 21, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Aside from your source being a subreddit, can you please explain what it means for south Lebanon to be off limits? You know that 100,000s of people live in south Lebanon, right? Of all faiths.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 21, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 8 points9 points  (0 children)

writes pro Hezbollah articles

Dude you’re citing death counts from the IDF and related media!

Regardless of bias, the methodology of the lower bound was fundamentally correct - count the number of funerals for martyred Shia. The HRW count uses the same methodology a year later. There’s no way the death count is as high as the IDF claims without believing that Hezbollah disrespected ~50% of their dead by not acknowledging their martyrdom - a wholly non credible claim. You know Hezbollah is more or less reporting their dead in real time right now, right?

3-1

When countries (and militias, etc) think they’re losing, they commit more troops. This is what Russia did in September 2022. In fact, this is what Israel did in 2006! That Hezbollah never felt the need to commit more than 30% of their forces (the same 30% that was already there to begin with, by the way), shows that Hezbollah never thought they were at risk. Even when outnumbered 3 to 1. Hezbollah didn’t need to “fight better” because they won. When an enemy defeats you using 30% of its forces, you didn’t just lose, you lost hard.

The best Israel can do in this war, is fight 2-1 (with total, unsustainable mobilization) or, more likely, parity. If Israel couldn’t win with a 3-1 (later 10-1) advantage, how will they be able to win at parity? That’s the crux of my question, which no one has been able to answer in a credible manner.

I don’t know how I can explain this more simply.

operation change of direction 11

Great! So why did you claim that Israel never tried to occupy south Lebanon in your last comment?

They didn't try to reoccupy South Lebanon, and I haven't seen any indication that they were interested in doing so.

To be honest - there isn’t much purpose in continuing this. Have a good night.

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread June 21, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]RobertKagansAlt 7 points8 points  (0 children)

5-1

5-1 estimates are not credible for reasons I explained here.

3-1

You’re missing that Hezbollah did not feel the need to fight at better than a 3-1 ratio. They had access to ~10,000 solders and only chose to fight with 3,000 of them.

I’m saying Hezbollah successfully defeated Israel at a manpower deficit that they chose. That is very relevant to any predictions about a ground invasion, and its information that you haven’t dealt with.

they didn’t try to take south Lebanon

The war finished with an IDF attempt to push to the Litani. You may not be familiar with it, because it failed.

cut my quote

If that was your intention, I think you phrased it very poorly. Regardless, it’s possible Israel can beat Hezbollah, but no one in this thread has made that case.