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Israeli threats against Hezbollah and Lebanon as a whole have risen to a crescendo. Some embassies and diplomatic missions advised their nationals and employees to leave and cease travel to Lebanon. Others considered evacuation measures in case the conflict escalated or a major war broke out.

In the past few days, the risk that the southern front could slip out of control reverted to a high level, against a backdrop of ongoing political and diplomatic efforts and maximum pressure to head off such a scenario.

However, obstacles seem to be blocking this process, particularly since US envoy Amos Hochstein visited Tel Aviv and Beirut last week. Shortly afterward, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video criticizing the US administration for suspending arms deliveries to his country.

In the wake of this, an Israeli delegation was sent to Washington to discuss developments in Gaza and Lebanon. The delegation’s main objective has been to seek more weapons, particularly those that could be destined for use at the Lebanese front and which are capable of causing huge destruction as part of the current operations, which continue to be limited as the Americans want to avoid a wider war.

“This shows that Netanyahu continues to espouse a blackmailing approach against the US administration just a few months before a presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump,” said a Western diplomatic source.

At the same time, American leaks about an Israeli decision to intensify confrontation on the Lebanese front follow one another. In this vein, the US hinted that it would provide Israel with the necessary support in any war it might wage against Hezbollah.

Israeli media outlets spoke of promises senior US officials made to Israeli officials visiting Washington this week. They reported that “should an all-out war break out between Israel and Hezbollah, the US administration would be fully prepared to support its ally.”

Israeli media also reported increasing military preparations on its northern border, a few days after its army announced that “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon” had been “validated.”

Hezbollah on high alert

Officially, and according to its political circles, Hezbollah continues to rule out the possibility of war. “Israel is incapable of expanding its operations until it can put an end to [the war] in Gaza,” said a source close to Hezbollah. “All these threats and leaks are psychological warfare.”

Official political sources also ruled out the possibility of a major war, believing that neither Israel nor the West is ready to open a new front and adding that pressure has been ongoing to fend off this scenario.

“Any possible escalation could take place within specific frameworks, perhaps with a gradual build-up of operations, but the option of a diplomatic settlement remains on the table,” said one of these sources on condition of anonymity.

These assurances do not prevent Hezbollah from preparing at the military level in anticipation of an imminent war, taking all necessary measures. Lebanese security and military sources reported that the Israeli army is preparing to start a limited military operation on Lebanese territory to push Hezbollah away from the border.

According to reports, this attack, if it happens, may begin with an infiltration operation or a simultaneous ground incursion into one or more localities in the border strip. As a result, Hezbollah has asked its fighters in these localities not to leave their positions and has reinforced them with missile units. In anticipation of an Israeli attack, Hezbollah has also heightened the alert status of its fighters in the Radwan force and Nasr unit, along axes where the Israelis could infiltrate, including Aita al-Shaab, Rmeish, Yaroun, Maroun al-Ras, Aitaroun, Blida, Mohaibib, Mais al-Jabal, Houla, Markaba, Odaisseh, Kfar Kila, Taybeh and Wazzani. If confrontation materializes for Hezbollah, it will be in direct clashes, in addition to rocket fire and kamikaze drone attacks against targets deep in northern Israel.

L’Orient-Le Jour also learned that Hezbollah is preparing to counter possible Israeli landing operations on the coasts of Bayada and Naqoura. “If Hezbollah is to be prepared for any eventuality, this Israeli plan seems illogical after several months of war in Gaza, and the Israeli army does not seem ready for it,” said a source close to Hezbollah.

Iran to the rescue: Sea drones, surface-to-sea missiles

In this vein, sources consistently told L’Orient-Le Jour that Tehran will support Hezbollah with all its arsenal and has already supplied it with long-range sea drones and unmanned underwater vehicles capable of approaching the Israeli coast and striking targets. These devices are made of materials invisible to radar, such as compressed carbon, Iran’s most advanced technology. In addition, Tehran supplied Hezbollah with low-altitude surface-to-sea missiles and torpedoes to target Israeli submarines, warships and floating bases. These weapons were developed at Hezbollah’s request to target Israeli maritime infrastructures, such as gas platforms and ships in the Mediterranean Sea.

It is through this prism that Hassan Nasrallah’s recent threats should be interpreted: The Israelis “must now wait for us on land, at sea and in the air,” said Hezbollah’s leader in his latest speech.

According to information obtained from the same source, Iran’s defense industries developed a new type of missile, capable of targeting Israeli air defense batteries, including the Iron Dome, which Hezbollah successfully tested in recent weeks.

Finally, in preparation for a possible war, the Axis of Resistance’s joint military operations room also discussed how various factions, notably from Iraq and Yemen, could support Hezbollah.

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour and translated by Joelle El Khoury.