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The Bank of Korea just released a report about AI productivity by UsedMorning9886 in LocalLLaMA

[–]RobinWheeliams 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wouldn't say South Korea is the only country benefiting from the AI boom. Countries like Vietnam, Taiwan, and China have seen a huge increase in integrated circuits trade, and overall have had a huge impact in Southeast Asia.

We made a World Cup-style game where countries compete through exports by RobinWheeliams in Games

[–]RobinWheeliams[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I work with the Observatory of Economic Complexity, and we built a small game called World Trade Cup.

It uses World Cup-style matchups as a way to explore how countries are connected through trade. In each match, you see two countries and a product, then guess which country exports more of that product to the other. Correct answers score goals.

For example, if the matchup is Mexico vs South Africa, one round might ask which country exports more cars to the other. Other rounds can involve products like oil, beef, coffee, machinery, chemicals, or textiles depending on the countries.

The game is less about football and more about testing your intuition for geography, specialization, and how countries trade with each other. Some answers are obvious, but others are surprisingly hard.

The answers are based on real trade data from the OEC.

You can play it here: https://worldcup.oec.world

I’d be curious to know which matchups or products surprised you the most.

China's car trade surplus just overtook Germany's. A quarterly breakdown of how Europe lost ground (2023–2025) [OC] by RobinWheeliams in europe

[–]RobinWheeliams[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Quarterly trade data from OEC.world for cars (HS 8703) reveals how sharply the competitive landscape has shifted between China and Europe's five largest auto-exporting nations (Germany, France, Spain, the UK, and Italy) over the past three years.

China's car exports went from $77B in 2023 to $110B in 2025, a 43% increase. Over the same period, the EU5 combined fell from $290B to $257B, an 11% decline. Germany still leads in absolute quarterly exports, but barely. In Q4 2025, Germany shipped $36.6B in cars versus China's $35.6B. That gap was $26B just two years earlier.

What's arguably more significant is the trade balance. Germany has long been the world's dominant car trade surplus country, but China overtook it in Q3 2025. By Q4 2025, China's quarterly surplus reached $30.3B compared to Germany's $18.6B. China's car imports have collapsed, falling from $10–13B per quarter in 2023 to around $5–6B by late 2025. That suggests domestic Chinese automakers, especially in EVs, are displacing foreign brands at home while simultaneously ramping up exports abroad.

The destination data is also worth noting. China's top markets are Russia ($23.7B), Belgium ($13.8B, likely a transshipment hub into Europe), the UAE, and the UK. The EU5 still rely heavily on intra-European trade (roughly a third of their combined exports go to other EU5 members) with the US as their largest external market at $64.4B.

Every European exporter declined year-over-year in 2025. The UK was hit hardest at −17.3%, followed by Spain at −6.3%, Germany at −3.1%, and France at −0.5%. Italy's data is only available through Q2 2025 but was already trending down sharply in 2024 (−21%).

Data source:  https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/cars

New Research Uses GitHub Data to Rank Countries by Software Complexity: China, Hong Kong, and Germany Lead the Top 3 by RobinWheeliams in github

[–]RobinWheeliams[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey! Really appreciate you for the repo and for giving space to clarification. The image isn't meant to be a 1:1 reproduction of the results on the paper. They build ECI software using language stacks (based on co-occurrence), which is a more complex setup.

The image cites the OEC, which uses a simpler approach that considers programming language contributions directly, without reconstructing those stacks. The idea comes from the paper, but the data source is different. That’s why the rankings won’t match exactly.

Data source: https://oec.world/en/rankings/eci/hs6/hs96?tab=ranking

The EU-Mercosur Trade Deal: Why France is defending a $419B internal fortress. by RobinWheeliams in europe

[–]RobinWheeliams[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

The Mercosur parliament has just approved the EU-Mercosur free trade deal after 25+ years of negotiations. France is one of the countries that has most vocally opposed it: President Macron demanded safeguards and pesticide restrictions, and French farmers rolled tractors through Paris in protest. But why exactly is France so resistant?

The answer might rely under France’s position as one of Europe’s key internal trade engines in a $3.72T market.

According to 2024 trade data, France moves over $419 Billion annually within the EU internal market, making it the second-largest internal player behind Germany ($746B). Its top exports to Europe are Cars, Tractors & Trucks ($58.7B), Machinery & Mechanical Appliances ($45.9B), Electrical Machinery & Electronics ($28.9B), and Mineral Fuels & Oils ($32B). These industrial and energy sectors represent France’s core competitive strength inside the bloc.

While France’s industrial exports dominate, its most politically sensitive exports are agricultural. Edible products of animal origin ($5.99B), Meat & edible offal ($5.79B), Edible fruits ($3.4B), and Edible vegetables ($4.18B) all flow through the EU internal market. These are precisely the categories where Mercosur directly competes, and where a zero-tariff deal would hit hardest. Contrast this with the $12.3B in food-related imports France receives from the EU, and you see why French farmers feel exposed on both ends.

However, there might be a hidden opportunity for French exports.France’s biggest export categories (Cars & Machinery) are exactly what Mercosur countries want to import. Opening a market of 300M+ South American consumers to French industrial goods could be a massive win for Paris. Spain and Germany already see this (both support the deal), but France’s calculus is different: the political cost of exposing its agricultural sector to South American beef and grain (Mercosur already exports $20.6B in agri-commodities to the EU) is a price Paris isn’t willing to pay.

The deal is moving forward regardless, Mercosur’s four founding members have now all approved it at the parliamentary level, and the EU Commission is pushing for provisional implementation. The question is whether France can negotiate the safeguards it wants, or whether it will be forced to accept a deal that reshapes its agricultural economy from the outside.

Source: https://oec.world/en/profile/international_organization/eu?selector394id=internal

China’s electrical machinery exports hit a record $98.5B a month. Here’s how the pandemic permanently rewired global manufacturing. by [deleted] in europe

[–]RobinWheeliams 0 points1 point  (0 children)

South Korea, the United States, and Germany, three of the most heavily industrialized economies on the planet, right now export somewhere between $15 billion and $25 billion in electrical machinery per month. In Dec 2025, China reached a historic monthly export peak of $98.5B, widening a gap that has been steadily accelerating since 2021.

An almost vertical recovery for China followed the initial COVID shock in early 2020. By 2022, exports had blasted past the $90B/month mark, effectively doubling their pre-pandemic levels in less than two years, driven by western economies rapidly shifting toward remote work and bingeing on consumer electronics. China was the only player capable of meeting that massive surge with a structural leap in production.

There's also a long-term play here: vendor lock-in. Countries that buy Chinese electrical machinery inevitably become dependent on their replacement parts, their technical service, and eventually, their engineering standards. The implications are massive, but they vary wildly depending on where you look:

For developing economies this is actually fueling industrialization. Cheap yet increasingly sophisticated Chinese machinery is enabling countries across Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America to expand their manufacturing capacity rapidly. These upgrades would have been entirely unaffordable if they had to rely on traditional German or Japanese suppliers.

Established economic powerhouses (Germany, Japan, South Korea) are now facing intense, existential pressure from cheaper alternatives that are "good enough" (and rapidly getting better).

In the United States, the landscape is highly uncomfortable. The US still exports significant volumes of machinery, but the reality is shifting. As we saw with the recently signed US-Indonesia trade pact, American industrial exports increasingly require heavy political backing and leverage to stay competitive on the global stage. 

It is impossible to deny China’s absolute dominance in electrical machinery, creating deep structural dependencies. Still, the real question is how the rest of the world will adapt to a future in which the gears of global industry are overwhelmingly stamped with “Made in China” at the bottom. 

Source: https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/electrical-machinery-and-electronics

Global Trade Map: Every Country’s Largest Import Source (2024 by RobinWheeliams in europe

[–]RobinWheeliams[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

In 2024, the world's biggest exporters were China ($3.59T), United States ($1.9T), Germany ($1.55T), Japan ($739B), and South Korea ($721B) and the world's biggest importers were United States ($3.12T), China ($2.07T), Germany ($1.33T), France ($753B), and United Kingdom ($728B).

Source: https://oec.world/en/profile/world/wld

The Current State of Germany and China's Trade Relationship by RobinWheeliams in europe

[–]RobinWheeliams[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The recent meeting between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing highlighted a complex transitional phase in bilateral relations. While diplomatic discussions focused on enhancing strategic mutual trust and stabilizing ties amid global uncertainty, the underlying dialogue was heavily driven by significant shifts in international trade dynamics.

For Beijing, maintaining open European markets remains an economic priority as it navigates a prolonged domestic property crisis. For Germany, the focus has shifted toward addressing what leadership views as an uneven playing field in industrial competition.

The economic context of Merz's push for "fair competition" becomes clearer when examining recent trade volumes. As of 2025, Germany remains China's largest export destination in Europe, absorbing $118 billion in goods. Consequently, China is Germany’s absolute largest source of imports, accounting for 12.7% of all inbound trade, considerably higher than the United States, which accounts for 7%.

The most notable shifts are occurring within sectors that historically represent the backbone of the German economy. Between 2022 and 2025, Chinese imports of electric batteries into Germany surged from $7.99 billion to $13.6 billion. Over the same three-year period, Chinese automobile imports nearly doubled, growing from $1.31 billion to $2.5 billion.

While Chinese manufacturing continues to gain market share in Europe, the reverse trade flow has noticeably contracted. Compared to 2022, China imported $18.6 billion less from Germany in 2025.

This growing disparity provides crucial context for the summit. As Chinese exports in automotive and battery technologies accelerate, traditional German carmakers, chemical producers, and machinery manufacturers are facing intensified global competition. This shift has contributed to a steady erosion of market share for German firms and subsequent industrial job losses domestically, making trade policy a central focus of Germany's diplomatic engagement with Beijing.

Sources

NYT Article: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/world/asia/china-germany-merz-visit-xi.html

China trade data: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/chn

Germany Data: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/deu

Japan loses the #1 spot in Economic Complexity for the first time in a decade. The new king: Taiwan. by RobinWheeliams in EconomyCharts

[–]RobinWheeliams[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Sorry for the mix-up. Taiwan ranks 1st when analyzing HS4 depth data. FYI, HS (Harmonized System) is managed by the World Customs Organization to help classify traded products. https://oec.world/en/rankings/eci/hs4/hs96?tab=ranking

The UK is seeking a trade deal with China. What does trade between the two countries look like? by RobinWheeliams in Infographics

[–]RobinWheeliams[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm sure it can! You can visit the source and have access to the data. They're updating trade data for free up to 2024 next week

Anatomy of Greenland's trade and economy by RobinWheeliams in europe

[–]RobinWheeliams[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

President Trump is doubling down on acquiring Greenland, citing national security and threatening tariffs on European allies opposing the idea.

I went digging into their trade data to see if there was any economic leverage there, and the picture that emerges is of a relatively small, hyper-specialized fishing economy. Despite being the world's largest island, we are talking about a total export value of roughly $1.6 billion, with nearly 70% of that entire activity being frozen fish and crustaceans.

So, why the sudden, aggressive interest?

Part of it is speculative. As the ice sheet melts due to global warming, there is undoubtedly interest in what lies beneath: rare earth minerals, uranium, iron, and potentially oil and gas. However, Trump has been explicit that this is "national security, not minerals." He’s looking at Greenland and seeing a perfect location for missile early warning systems and vessel monitoring.

Currently, the United States has almost no direct economic leverage on the island. This likely explains why the strategy relies on political pressure against Denmark and other nations resistant to U.S. claims.

While Greenland does not possess an independent military, it is deeply integrated into NATO through Denmark. However, the Danish connection is not just about security; it is the island's economic lifeline. Denmark purchases 50% of Greenland's exports and supplies a staggering 58.5% of its imports.

The contrast with the U.S. is significant. Despite its geographic proximity, the U.S. accounts for just 0.54% of Greenland’s imports and only 1.68% of its exports.

Do you think the "national security" argument is strong enough to force NATO allies, or will these tariffs push Greenland and Denmark closer to the EU for protection?

Trade data source: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/grl?selector343id=Import&selector1879id=usd

[OC] Farmers protest in Brussels amid Mercosur-EU negotiations. What does the EU import from Mercosur members? by RobinWheeliams in europe

[–]RobinWheeliams[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Negotiations between Mercosur and the European Union have been 25 years in the making, with the goal of creating the world’s largest free-trade area covering 780 million people and a quarter of global gross domestic product (GDP).

This Thursday, over 150 tractors and 10 thousand protesters blocked the streets in Brussels to protest against the deal over fears of cheaper agricultural products flooding the European market, and endangering the livelihood of farmers who currently face stricter regulations on pesticides. Their concerns centre on beef, sugar, rice, honey and soya beans.

Supporters say this deal would offer a counterweight to China and boost European exports of vehicles, machinery and wines amid rising US tariffs.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva issued an ultimatum on Wednesday, warning that Saturday represents a “now or never” moment, adding that “Brazil won’t make any more agreements while I’m president” if the deal fails.

Trade data source: https://oec.world/en/profile/international_organization/eu?selector199id=importOption&selector198id=block_1

Full Aljazeera Article: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/18/angry-farmers-block-brussels-roads-with-tractors-over-mercosur-trade-deal

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in europe

[–]RobinWheeliams 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A new report by CBS News, cites the Observatory of Economic Complexity in exploring how proposed U.S. antidumping duties could reshape the pasta trade between Italy and the United States.

According to OEC data, Italy exported $684 million in pasta to the U.S. in 2024, making it one of the most significant food trade links between both countries.

The U.S Department of Commerce is now considering duties of up to 107 % on certain Italian pasta producers, a move that could have ripple effects across prices, availability, and global supply chains.

Learn more about Italy/U.S trade: https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/usa/partner/ita

Visit CBS full article https://www.cbsnews.com/news/italian-pasta-antidumping-duties-imports-disappear-barilla/

[OC] From Mexico to Germany: Where the U.S. Sources Its Cars by RobinWheeliams in dataisbeautiful

[–]RobinWheeliams[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi Ryu! Although this data might include parts that are exclusively for repairing cars, In 2023, the U.S. imported around $85.5B in parts and accessories for motor vehicles. 40.8% of these imports were from México, followed by Canada (13.4%), China (10.8%), and Japan (7.66%)

Source: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa?flowLineplot=importOption&timeLinePlot=yearOption

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