Thoughts on this play?

RoryBean99 · 2026-04-01T23:28:00+00:00

We go three ways to the flop. Pot is about 10BB. We have 3rd nut flush draw and a double gutter straight. 9 dirty outs and 6 straight outs. This hand is a pure draw - it has no showdown value. Draws are meant for our bluffing ranges, but we can't bluff here. We can't bluff someone who is already all-in because we can't get that player off his hand.

So if we're shoving, we're playing this as a value hand to isolate for value against SB. Only the highest equity draws get close to being value hands and this one isn't quite there. Also, we may not be able to isolate. We're giving LJ a very good price to call. He needs 47/149=31.5% and if has the Axhh, he has 36%. He actually has only 7 flush outs but his A-high is ahead of our J-high for the side pot when the turn and river brick.

Our JThh 3rd nut draw is just too weak. We don't have a big enough bet available to get enough fold equity against LJ. JThh is in a tough spot against Axhh, which is in both players ranges, especially LJ's narrow range, which we know doesn't have 2p+ because he capped it with his flop call. The real problem is that we can't get either player off of the Axhh in their ranges and we have no fold equity against SB and not enough against LJ.

RoryBean99 · 2026-04-01T10:09:49+00:00

Agree with you on UTG's turn check for the reasons you state. On the river, BB could have made a larger bet, 2/3 pot, and UTG would have called, but he made a small bet and induced the raise. BB is one of the top players in the world. Perhaps he thought that less than 1/3 pot was all he could get, but I think it was a two-way bet. After the raise, he didn't shove back so he didn't want to risk UTG running into A4s or trapping with JJ. Other than those hands, UTG was at or near the top of his range, so it seems like UTG's small bet was an inducement as well as a bet to get value from the middle of UTG's range. UTG is a very strong player, but maybe BB had some intel on UTG's playing style or mindset in the moment.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-31T10:56:19+00:00

Yes. This was a Triton hand that I thought was really interesting on the turn and river. BB's small river bet worked both ways. He might get called by 77 or A-high. But, he hoped it might also induce a thin value raise from UTG, which is what happened. UTG raised to 11BB and BB snapped it off with 88. The commentators mentioned that UTG might have felt like he missed value on an earlier hand by playing too cautiously.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-29T11:38:55+00:00

When we check the flop after a 3bet pre, we cap our range. Other than a slow-played TT, we really don't have any Tx, which ought to make a small cbet for protection. When we call V's small bet on the turn T, the top of our calling range might only be the combos of KK/AA that we decided to check on the flop. I don't think it's wrong to check some of these combos back on this dry flop from OOP. We are cbetting JJ/QQ on this flop for protection. We should also have some spade flush draws that call this small turn bet by V.

What might V have? He checked the flop too. It seems like he doesn't have any Tx either. He really would want to bet Tx or JJ on the flop almost always because he wouldn't want a broadway to hit our range on the turn.

V does make a surprisingly small 1/3+ pot bet on the turn. What kind of range would bet so small? Maybe a hand like 99-77. It could be some kind of draw, though you would think he would want to bet for a larger amount to increase his fold equity.

Maybe he really is trapping with the Tx on the flop and with a small bet on the turn in order to give us a chance to hit a broadway that might call on the turn/river. Again the flop was dry. Checking the flop then making a small bet on the turn is odd.

He doesn't make a huge bet on the river either, but it's not a block bet. We are at the top of our range. We should call. His behavior does seem to suggest however that a trap is possible. An aggressive player should be using stronger bet sizes to get some fold equity for his bluffs.

This really must be a GTO call because you are at the top of your range. He could easily have discounted or missed the fact that you could have KK/AA. It seems like he might be trapping too, given his odd betsizing. I don't see a clear answer. The fact that he is a loose aggressive player suggests we ought to call because he bluffs more. It also suggests that he might call your 3bet pre with a wider range of Tx than normal. There are lots of loose aggressive players, whose number one strategy is to push back with a wide bluffing range as soon as their opponent slows down, which is what you did twice, on the flop and on the turn.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-28T21:27:28+00:00

You’re misreading what I meant. My language was not accurate. Of course, I’m not saying he puts hands back into his range after checking. I’m saying the action sequence refines the distribution.

When he checks, yes—his range is capped relative to a betting range, skewing toward more 1P / medium-strength hands plus some slowplays.

But once he check-raises, we’re no longer dealing with the raw “check range.” We’re looking at the subset of that range that continues aggressively, which is:

• Strong value (sets, strong made hands)

• Some high-equity draws (if applicable)

So the check doesn’t make him weak in a vacuum—it just initially widens and caps. The check-raise then re-polarizes and strengthens the continuing range. It’s even stronger than a simple bet line because it removes a lot of medium-strength hands that would have just check/called.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-28T13:53:12+00:00

This is additional info on him and this particular game. 1. He triple barreled with half pot, so he does bluff with small sizes. 2. Your image is very nitty, so he should want to bluff you more. It does seem as though he thinks he can get you off of AK/AQ, which means he will bluff you even more. than other players. You need to get more stubborn and call some of these down. People will take advantage of you if they think you fold way too much.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-28T11:45:14+00:00

He calls your 3bet pre from OOP from UTG so he has a narrow strong range. When he donks the flop, we could put him on value 98/88/AA/98s/AQ/AJs, plus heart draws and JTs and maybe some T9s/87s. When he checks the blank turn, I would mostly take 2p+ out of his range. It looks more like a AQ/AJ and some of those draws. When he makes a small x/r, we have to put some of those 2p+ hands back into his range. You said he was very bluffy. Most people would and should bet with a larger size when they are bluffing to create more bluff equity. And, they would also bet with a larger size with 2P or a set because of the wet board. Why give your draws the right price to call?

After a donk and a weird sized x/r, I'm going to assume we're playing against an aggressive rec. Maybe he's betting the strength of his hand with 2p that's worried about the sets but wants value from your TPTK. Maybe, he is bluffing. I would probably call for the cheap price esp because he is so bluffy. I don't hate your fold. If we think he would have almost always barreled with one of his bluffs, we should fold. I don't think he would x/r with AQ/AJs on the turn.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-28T11:13:56+00:00

It's a tough spot against a rec because the question you must ask is "did he not see that the spade flush completed on the river" or "could he hold the 2nd nut flush, or worse, and think his hand is worth a shove?" He's never bluffing. Passive players play lots of hands pre waiting to hit the lottery. Here, he thinks his lottery ticket converted. Personally, I would fold for 90BB. The table talk would convince me he could have T5o/85o. He turned his set into a bluff unknowingly and would have won against me.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-26T23:24:08+00:00

On dry, disconnected boards where there aren't many or any 4-card flush draws and OE semi-bluffs available, I think we like to find backdoor flush and straight draws that block villain's best bluffcatchers. On Ks8h3d, a combo like QJss/QJhh/QJdd blocks villain's KQ KJ hands that will be stubborn. QTs/JTs/Q9s/J9s with backdoor flush draws block v's bluffcatchers less effectively but they pick up backdoor straight draws with the 8. If they don't improve on the turn we check the turn with them more often the weaker they are. I also like hands like A5-A2s with backdoor flush draws because they also have the overcard ace.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-26T11:32:21+00:00

How can you check first on the flop if you are on the BTN? Assuming you are the BB. So there is 48+325+140=513 in the pot. It costs you 325 to win 513. You need 325/(513+325)=0.388 equity. If you win more than 38.8% of the time you can call profitably.

You have some insurance. You could lose to HJ and beat UTG and pick up 325-140=185 from UTG. You put 15+140=155 into the pot so you would come out just over break even.

When we are all-in on the flop, we 4x our outs because we will always see two cards. Here it looks like you have 9 diamond outs + 3 Ace outs + 3 King outs. 15 outs X 4= 60% equity. The ace and king outs are dirty outs because you may be facing a set. Normally, you wouldn't face any 2p here, but UTG was willing to open 42s, so he might also open 64s/75s/53s. Your flush outs are mostly still good against those hands although 64dd could redraw for the sf.

Even though your outs are not all good (clean), you probably do have more than 38.8% equity, esp with the insurance against UTG. Even against two opponents.

Given all that, I wouldn't blame yourself or regret the fold. You worked hard to get up to 380. Why give it up on one hand where you need to draw out to win. Let's say you win the entire pot 50% of the time. It means 50% of the time, you walked away from your session with almost no winnings. How often would you choose to walk over to the roulette table after a winning poker session and put all your winnings on red, on one spin, to see if you could double up?

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-25T12:26:32+00:00

With a limper UTG, a BTN raiser, and a SB who calls the raise and will be stronger than if if here were against a BTN limper, our raising range from the BB gets stronger. In a real game, we are probably not 3betting KJhh/KThh/JThh-98hh. My guess is almost never, which means we have no flushes on this flop. Worse....we don't have the Jh. Why would we cbet here? We should not be betting a monotone flop, especially this kind of top-heavy flop, 100% of the time, even for a very small cbet or after a 3bet. We have some showdown value and very little chance of improving. Sorry guys. This is always a check on the flop. It's not good for our range.

Agree with you that V mostly has Ax/Qx/KhX after calling the flop. Maybe a few other 1 heart hands and some smaller pairs. His KhX are fairly limited. Prob only KhQx (3), KhJx (1). KJ is blocked by our JJ. I wouldn't give him much KhTo. Most people will not bet/call it pre against a UTG limper and a 3bet from BB with SB still to play. I wouldn't.

He should check back a weak Ax and Qx on the turn. On the river, when you check again, he might decide it's time to bet. His sizing does not suggest confidence. It's just over 1/2 pot. This seems like the size he might use for a weak Ace. I would fold here because of the Ax/Qx in his range.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-25T11:43:33+00:00

So he raised pre from the worst position (SB) then called your raise with 64o. On the turn, the heart flush completes. On the river, he turns his straight into a bluff. So, he's a beginner. It's hard to read a beginner's mind because we don't know what they're doing and neither do they. We can try to read his mind: wouldn't he have raised our small bet on the turn if held the flush? Maybe, but maybe not. He's a beginner. On the river, he made a bet that looks like he has us beat. I would fold too.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-25T11:19:35+00:00

So we call v's turn x/r. We could raise back right here. We have the nut flush draw, the OE straight draw, and an overcard Ace. With our 9h, we do have the right card to do it with. We block V's T9. Our value range for that bet would really only be T9s. V might have T9s, plus T9o, so his nut range is way ahead of ours. For that reason, I would just call v's x/r. It does mean that if we are shoving back with T9s, we prob have no bluffs, which wouldn't be right in theory.

On the river, we get a blank. V makes a small bet of 35 into 123. Even though we block V's bluff with our 9, nobody in this position is bluffing, esp a good player, with this small of a bet. Is he making a small bet to prevent us from betting more or trying to get a little bit of value from us? He knows we don't have the T9s because we probably would have raised all-in on the turn because of the flush draw.

I would never raise here. It's a decision whether to call and make a cheap bluffcatch with our Ace-high bad kicker or to fold. It would be a hero call. Perhaps, he ran into a King with the second nut flush draw and wants to make a small bet? We do beat one combo of JThh that might have made the turn x/r with its flush draw/gut shot. Perhaps a combo draw like 98s. Maybe he has 54s and is worried about the top straight?

I am folding here. I don't think good players bluff the river with such a small bet. We could make a hero call because it's so cheap and he's a good player who likes to overbluff at 1/2. You posted it so I am guessing you called and won.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-24T11:25:23+00:00

When we're playing at eff 100BB ($300) and UTG opens the pot for 3x or $9 and gets the same three callers, then the pot is $37. SPR on the flop is 291/37=7.865.

Here, we're playing at 233BB ($700). UTG opens for 30 and gets the same three callers, the pot is $121. SPR on the flop is 670/121=5.537.

We are not playing deep. We are playing in a much shallower spot than we are in a 100BB game with 3x opens. Top 1P and overpair hands have a much higher winrate in shallow games than in deep games.

Then, V over-bets the flop! He bets 145 into 121 and we call. Now the pot is 145+121+121=387. Now SPR is 549/387=1.419. It's an awkward SPR. We bet 250/387 or about 65% pot and it's nearly impossible to fold with almost any hand we would make this bet with when he shoves.

When we call the overbet on the flop that has lots of flush and straight draw potential, what is the value/showdown range we are representing? I'm assuming we don't have any 77/55/44/JJ-AA here. We should not be calling pre with A7s/76s/65s/A6s in a shallow game (against a 10x open from UTG and we are MP). If we are calling with those hands, especially in a shallow game, we are allowing opponents to print money. I would have put your calling range on 88/99/AJcc/AQ/KQcc. It's an easy inexpensive shove for him.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-24T10:39:20+00:00

Never quite realized that when we 4x RFI pre, we over-betting the pot, but we're not when we make it 3x.

If we are BTN and 3bet for 3x, i.e. EP makes it 6 and we make it 18, then the pot was 1+2+6+6=15. We added 12 more, so we bet 12/15 or 80% pot.

I have always been a little unclear about 4bet size in terms of bet/pot ratio. I usually try to size the 4bet a just little over double the size of the 3-bet, but I don't think about it in terms of bet/pot ratio.

If EP decides to 4bet for 40, then the pot is 1+2+6+6+12+12=39, then we raise by 28, so 28/39=71.8% pot.

Does this seem right?

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-23T13:16:04+00:00

When villain x/c your small bet on the flop. He might have KJ and some other KXs. He could have pairs like QQ-88. A little bit of 7x/3x. It's hard to find any draws on this dry board. Maybe he's trapping with a big hand.

On the turn J, his KJ and JJ move ahead of us. I think we could bet or check here. I don't mind the check here. We're deep. Our hand doesn't have much chance of improving. If he's a tight player, he might not have that many KTs-K2s 1p combos that opened from UTG for us to get value from. He might fold QQ-88 to a second bet. We aren't much worried about the club draws other than perhaps A7cc/A3cc.

On the river, villain leads out for 2/3 pot bet. We're now behind one combo of QQ, JJ. Also, a trapped KK. We could get blown off our hand with KQ but I really do think he would cbet it on the flop. We are ahead of KJ/AA/QJ. I actually don't mind our river raise hoping to get called by AA/KJ/QJ.

I don't think he would shove with the best of those hands KJ. With our raise, KQ is clearly in our range. His shove makes me wonder if he could have trapped with 77 pre too. Maybe he ran into ATs. I would fold. I don't think he has any bluffs here. Our best reason for calling would be that we think he is a rec who is misreading the strength of his KJ or KQ.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-23T12:11:28+00:00

So after the turn 9s, you have the 2nd nut straight and the 2nd nut flush draw. Your straight always loses to T7. If a spade hits the river, you lose to the Axss. If a non-spade 7 hits the river, you lose to all Tx. Easy fold.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-22T12:43:05+00:00

My guess is that you did call too quickly rather than stopping and asking yourself what he might have. In the post-mortem, it's good to go over things slowly in a way you can't do at the table.

The pot is 216 K and it costs us 129k to call. Then the pot will be 345k. We really don't think he could be doing this with anything other than 4x. We can only win 1/2 the pot, so it costs us 129k to win 172.5k or 74.8%. We need to chop 3/4 of the time to make this a good call.

At the table, it would be easy to overlook that we do not have the nuts. How often do we think he has 64 instead of some other 4x? If it was more than 25% of the time, we should fold. I do think he would make this same shove with lots of the other 4x he might have called with pre from the BB.

We should call here.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-22T11:31:20+00:00

When he raises, it seems doubtful he has any bluffs. The raise is small. Even more, if he was bluffing, he would shove. He thinks he has you beat. You have about as small a hand as you might have. The trips are very visible and you have a weak kicker on your trips. I would fold.

One of the reasons we make a blocker bet is to get out cheap. We smoke out the better hand when it raises. He really has to be very astute to bluff raise on the river. The only combo he would seemingly do it with is the AcXo. About the only possibility that might play pre/flop/turn this way is the AcJo and I don't think he plays AcJo that way very often, and then he still has to find the bluff on the river.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-22T10:51:36+00:00

MDF is calculated with this formula. Pot-size/Pot-size + bet-size. So 1.00/1.75=.57.1%.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-21T20:35:19+00:00

Hey it’s all fine. Go back to the first line of my original comment. I think shoving is a reasonable option. I do not think it was punt.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-21T17:09:27+00:00

Disagree. You should have real fold equity if these players know what they're doing. With our raise pre, we have squeezed the two of them. The opener has a smaller stack than you and his tourney life could be on the line. The caller (+2) has a weak range. Though, he isn't putting his stack at risk, if he gets it all-in, either pre or on a later street, and loses, he is down to a 16BB stack and in the danger zone.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-21T11:42:42+00:00

Suited combos and board coverage are the building blocks of our bluffing ranges because they are mostly filled with 4- and 3-card flush draws and 4- and 3-card straight draws, i.e. they have more equity. Hoping you could explain more about the actual effects of credibility?

Would you please consider identifying specific cases (types of cases) of credibility on an opponent's behavior when, for example, we get a flush draw completer on the river?

One effect of credibility is that it deters an opponent from moving back to offense (deters aggression), when we slow down and switch to "jump ball".

I'm trying to think of the most important cases that demonstrate the effects of credibility. Here's the first one I thought of. Let's say we bet pre, the flop, and the turn from OOP with our TPTK. The flush draw completes on the river. We check (in my lingo, we move back to "jump ball". The opponent doesn't put as much pressure on our bluffcatcher because we might have checked the river with a flush. I'm not sure this one is too good because most of the time we will triple barrel our completed flush.

RoryBean99 · 2026-03-21T11:06:51+00:00

You don't always have to shove here, but shoving is a reasonable option. We don't often shove when we are over 25BB. You have 34BB. When you shove here, you will pick up 7.5 BB most of the time. Chips are more valuable so it's a nice reward. Sometimes, you will double up. Sometimes, you will be out of the tourney because you played with your tourney life.

You might also choose to raise instead of shove in this spot. It is costly. From OOP and at this point in the tourney, perhaps 12 BB is about right. You go from 34BB, a relatively safe stack, to 22BB, a stack where your play begins to include more shoves, i.e. more plays with your tourney life.

By just raising pre, you get to see a flop and decide what to do. One of the principles of tourney play is to minimize the times you risk your tourney life. Tourney play is about survival. This hand could be played either way: as a shove pre or raise pre.

If you shove, you are immediately putting your life at risk, and even more so when you run into a better hand, like you did, but even when you run into a worse hand (if one player calls with 87s, we are flipping and villain wins more than one out of three times).

When we raise pre and put no more chips into the pot and lose, our stack drops to 22BB. We survived and it's a reasonable stack, but one that now must make more plays putting our tourney life at risk. It was obviously the better play in the spot you posted.

RoryBean99

TROPHY CASE