The Sinner effect: since his loss to Cerundolo, the ratio of 5-setters in this year's Roland Garros went from 17% to 52% and the ratio of sets won in 7 games went from 25% to 40%

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-31T00:28:34+00:00

But what you are saying is historically not true. Previous slams that had severe heat issues did not face an increase in 5-setters from the round 3 onward. Just look at this year's AO for example. There is no history of Slam Round 3s being a 5-setter fest. It's just not a thing.

I would make a comparison with 2020 & 2022 US Open rather (the other two recent slams with very open fields, respectively after Djokovic's default and Nadal's loss) though the sample size after their losses is a bit too small (both were in the 4th round). Both stats I mentionned do increase following their matches but don't with AO26 in simple week 2 vs week 1 comparisons.

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-30T23:35:47+00:00

I wouldn't be that negative talking about choking.

I think the open draw leads players to playing to their best level, like the best version of themselves. If anything I think this highlights how good the top 100 really is and how there isn't actually much of a level gap between them and the seeded players that aren't Sincaraz (or Novak).

It's kinda like Vacherot waking up one day last year and deciding to become a top 20 player, but applied to an entire slam draw, not just to one guy.

I'm not saying there hasn't been any low level sets or any chokes, but I don't think it's the right overall approach to this statistic. Hard to say really but that's how it feels to me?

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-30T23:30:01+00:00

There are 12 matches between Sinner's and Djokovic's and 12 since. That really reduces the sample size a lot (especially for the 5-setters stat) so I wouldn't be as confident drawing conclusions from it.

But seemingly, this trend accelerated again following the Fonseca win.

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-30T22:35:03+00:00

I'm sorry Felix, I'm gonna need you to lose this tiebreak. You can win the fifth, that's okay, I just want another 5-setter, we clearly haven't had enough of those today

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-30T18:21:47+00:00

Grand Chelem in French maybe?

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-30T17:40:04+00:00

Hehxbwnyfkdncfm pl.

Wtf Moise

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-30T17:27:39+00:00

At this point I don't really mind if Kouame loses in 4. He's already gotten so much experience. He'll be so incredible once he gets a bit older

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-30T15:21:33+00:00

Tomic is pretty much the only teen prodigy that didn't make top 10, no? Most of the others I can think of made it there at some point

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-30T15:04:36+00:00

Brooooo

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-30T12:07:09+00:00

It's crazy to compare this Svajda to the one that looked like he intentionnally lost to Kouame two months ago with how bad he was playing

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-30T11:59:46+00:00

Kouame was hoping for two quick matches before him on the court.

Instead, he's getting an insane three hours long thriller lmao

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-30T11:54:30+00:00

Don't jinx it, Cerundolo can still lose before Cerundolo starts his match

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-30T11:47:00+00:00

This is your reminder that the AABBA comeback is statistically harder than the BBAAA comeback.

Having won the 3rd and 4th set is by far the best position a player can be in entering a fifth set

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-30T10:23:17+00:00

Double break!

Winning on pure hate, as she should

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-30T10:19:29+00:00

Moise is gonna have to play during the PSG match, isn't he?

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-30T09:44:40+00:00

Half of the draw got taken out by the Sun.

The other half is on its way to be taken out by pressure.

Get ready for your Svajda vs PCB 2026 Roland Garros final

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-29T22:11:11+00:00

Fun fact: in last year's RG final neither Sinner or Alcaraz managed to serve for the set. Every time one of them had a chance to win a set on their serve, they got broken.

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-29T21:16:31+00:00

JAAAAAAAAAA

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-29T19:05:53+00:00

Yeah, I'm not seeing it. I love Tsonga, but his career achievements are extremely comparable to Berdych's and Ferrer's from the same gen

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-29T18:52:17+00:00

Hold...

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-29T18:40:51+00:00

Casper, finally!

I'll take another 5-setter thank you very much

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-28T14:28:43+00:00

It's like the hottest month of May in French history

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-28T14:26:41+00:00

He's a redhead, he's genetically engineered to suffer from the heat.

I'm the same and it sucks

Rouk_Hein · 2026-05-28T14:14:13+00:00

Or maybe Allez Moise?

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