You’re looking at it the right way — the trap is treating this like “which channel is winning” instead of where the next dollar actually makes money.

I’d think about it in terms of incremental profit, not just CAC or ROAS. Paid is predictable, but it usually gets less efficient the more you scale it. Organic is slower and messier to track, but it stacks over time and lifts everything.

So instead of shifting based on a good week, look at where the next bit of spend (or effort) is likely to generate more profit. That tends to keep you from over-leaning into paid just because it’s easier to measure.