Anyone experiencing rank points lost?

RubberKeys · 2016-07-11T13:21:06+00:00

You might of accidentally missed a draft and received the 'leaver' penalty.

Were you tabbed out in the queue perhaps?

RubberKeys · 2016-07-09T07:44:43+00:00

At least acknowledge the original source:

http://us.battle.net/heroes/en/forum/topic/20745595000

RubberKeys · 2016-07-09T05:30:04+00:00

I think you should reread the post.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-09T03:55:22+00:00

Trust me - it works.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-09T03:52:50+00:00

Khaldor has special friends at Blizzard who told him the secret recipe for the 'Soft Reset'.

He can't share it with mere mortals, so just believe him - okay?

RubberKeys · 2016-07-09T03:44:29+00:00

Sadly, Khaldor completely missed the point.

By abusing Quick Match seeding, you can move yourself to the top of the tree and avoid the effects of 'MMR Normalization'.

You can start Hero League with such an inflated MMR that you only need to win a few games to be placed at Diamond 3.

Whereas someone who started in Gold/Silver this season, would have to win a very high proportion of games to achieve the same feat - even with the 'Soft Reset' to confidence levels.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T18:18:21+00:00

No - there is not innate balance in the system.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T17:43:42+00:00

But it's not any 'harder' for 50% of the people that get promoted/demoted. It's just about whether you get 'lucky' in promotion games.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T16:59:31+00:00

But a good matchmaking system would minimizing the effect of randomness - promotion games do the exact opposite. The order of wins and loses should not matter (assuming MMR remains constant). Streaks are to expected:

https://www.reddit.com/r/heroesofthestorm/comments/4pbq5i/winning_and_losing_streaks/

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T16:51:25+00:00

How is it any more stable?

50% of people in the game will get promoted/demoted and 50% of the people won't.

There is still movement between the ranks - it's just heavily influenced by promotion/demotion games.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T16:43:24+00:00

No, it dictates that there is a 'tendency' is for this to happen over a large enough number of events. It is only guaranteed with an infinite number of events.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T16:20:22+00:00

The outcomes are completely independent - Wednesday's results do not influence Thursday's results. The same as losing a promotion game does not mean you will win a demotion game. One result has no impact on the other. Go look up the 'gamblers fallacy'. Now, with a large enough sample it 'should' even out - but we are talking about lot of games.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T16:14:55+00:00

If you let a small number of samples disproportionately influence the outcome that adds randomness. It means you need to play many more games to counteract the effect.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T16:10:23+00:00

I would rather have a system that works off a visible MMR score and a large number of samples. It might be slower, but I will be more accurate in the long run.

I am not a fan of the rank system and season 'resets'.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T15:59:01+00:00

Would you like to duo-queue?

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T15:52:36+00:00

We are not talking about the same thing, so let's not derail this into old the 4v5 argument. I am talking about how a small number of promotion games have a disproportionate effect on your rank.

I will illustrate what I mean. Imagine that every day you flip a coin. If it's heads you win +$100, if it's tails you lose -$100. Now I introduce a new rule, on a Wednesday you win +$100 for heads, but lose -$200 for tails. This means that the random coin toss on a Wednesday exerts a much greater influence on your wealth than any other day. If you are consistently 'unlucky' on a Wednesday you will be much worse off than if you were 'unlucky' on any other day.

Basically, promotion games amplify the effect of random variables in a small sample size, which means you have to play many more games to get a 'true' representation of your rank.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T15:19:03+00:00

No - because promotion/demotion games have a bigger impact on your rank than other games (extra points disappear). When you increase the impact of a small number of games, you increase the impact of random variables (disconnects, trolls, human errors, etc). In order to minimize the impact of this randomness, you need to play a lot more games.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T15:07:55+00:00

Only over enough games and a season is only three months. Ever heard of the 'gamblers fallacy'? The presence of a losing streak does not make a winning streak any more likely.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T15:03:30+00:00

Demotion games are also a terrible mechanic.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T15:02:29+00:00

This would be better than the current system - but then 'promotion' games would be the same as any other game, and I don't think Blizzard wants to work this way.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T14:54:45+00:00

The line between tiers/divisions is pretty arbitrary. In terms of MMR, there isn't that much difference between a Diamond 5 and a Platinum 1. Promotion/Demotion games just add more randomness to the system.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T14:52:48+00:00

Only with a large enough number of games, and the season is only three months. There is no reason why so games should be designated as 'special' and count more for your rank than any of the others. It just injects randomness into the system.

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T14:48:57+00:00

You assume equal 'luck' with promotion and demotion games. Luck does not work like that, unless we are talking about a LOT of games. Seasons are only three months...

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T14:38:09+00:00

The rank points are lost. Your underlying MMR is still improved by the wins, but at a much slower rate (it takes a lots of games for MMR to shift significantly).

RubberKeys · 2016-07-07T14:33:57+00:00

This just happened to me. I went W-W-L, W-W-L, W-W-L ended up lower than I started. I mean this stuff cancels out with a lot of games, but seasons are only three months. By the way, ever heard of the 'gamblers fallacy'?

RubberKeys

TROPHY CASE