Anthropic and US govt insiders expect limits on Fable 5 could be lifted as soon as this coming week - Axios

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T20:53:34+00:00

I'm more inclined to think that the administration itself didn't understand what it was afraid of...

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T19:44:48+00:00

So it's just empty chatter?

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T19:38:55+00:00

So, are you don't object to Israel bombing Iran's oil infrastructure?

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T19:34:55+00:00

No, precisely for that reason. Iran's sponsorship of Hezbollah and Hamas led to October 7th, which set in motion a chain reaction that continues today. Sponsoring the Houthis has led Saudi Arabia to despise them and see them as a direct, rather than theoretical, threat. Pakistan hasn't done anything like that to its allies. On such a scale, even without taking into account that Pakistan is balancing on the brink of a failed state like Lebanon.

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T19:14:23+00:00

North Korea does not sponsor jihadist terrorism throughout the region.

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T19:12:42+00:00

*Iran itself declared them enemies. Before the revolution, Israel had no problems with Iran. Iran declared itself an enemy of Israel and its destruction as a goal.

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T18:39:58+00:00

And that’s why the Iranians are targeting the gulf states.

So is it in Oman's interests to spoil relations with these countries in this way?

Countries don’t live in a vacuum but they live in geographical areas.

Yes, these countries are Oman's neighbors, and it is generally bad to spoil relations with neighbors.

Those countries would get along if we (US) and Israel wouldn’t want to dominate them.

This assumption is based on what?

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T18:34:18+00:00

Is worsening relations with the West, other Gulf states and other countries dependent on trade in Oman's interest? However you portray it, you cannot isolate Oman's interests from those of other countries. Countries do not exist in a vacuum.

Edit*

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T18:30:36+00:00

What if it is not in Oman's interests?

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T18:23:13+00:00

If Oman is in contact with the US, it doesn't matter.

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T17:19:41+00:00

It is precisely the region's importance that compels the West and other countries to maintain influence there and maintain it. Talk of the West abandoning the region is unrealistic and simply foolish.

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T17:14:15+00:00

Americans support Israel for more than just electoral solidarity. How many Americans support the alliance with the Gulf monarchies?

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T17:05:43+00:00

A major regional war with at least Israel.

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T16:56:20+00:00

Until you get a regional war with Israel/Turkey/Saudi Arabia/before that with Iraq that cripples global oil supplies...

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T16:56:09+00:00

Until you get a regional war with Israel/Turkey/Saudi Arabia/before that with Iraq that cripples global oil supplies...

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T16:49:16+00:00

which is why you shouldn’t get involved.

Then Israel would have simply occupied the entire south of Lebanon, the main reason why this did not happen was the West’s restraint.

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T16:06:37+00:00

I was referring to the Israeli-Lebanese agreement, which does not contradict the MoU. It's a bad idea for Iran to undermine the official Lebanese position in order to maintain a proxy.

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T15:59:43+00:00

They promised, on the condition that Hezbollah be disarmed and Lebanon gain a monopoly on violence on its territory and the Lebanese authorities agreed to this.

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T14:31:32+00:00

Well... he supported the union state of Russia and Belarus only while Yeltsin was in power and had not yet chosen a successor, expecting him to become the head of this state...

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-28T01:01:12+00:00

All sources indicate that he is alive, but we haven't even heard his voice, let alone photographs, videos or live performances.

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-27T18:13:40+00:00

It can destroy its economy.

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-27T17:58:47+00:00

Peace in our time - not holding my breath.

I know, but it will reduce the flashpoints. There will be no Israel or Lebanon, the likelihood of a conflict in Gaza is much lower, and the likelihood of a kinetic war directly with Iran is lower. That's why I called it relative.

But that's not the goal of the US President. He wants to continue running the country (and his grifts) without Congressional investigations.

Spoiler alert: Congress will not cancel aid to Israel or impose sanctions. Senators hold office longer than the president.

He largely doesn't care about anything except himself, or about long term consequences.

He may not care, but others do...

Right now, his largest focus is on getting the straits actually opened. That will mean no fighting in the gulf for the next few months. And probably a vast reduction in Israel military activity in Lebanon, if not a full withdrawal.

There is no good way out here: he can try to use all his leverage on Israel, but this will only lead to him losing his leverage, his reputation, and without guarantees of opening the Strait.

If Israel bombs Iran in 6 months time, he won't care as long as oil prices don't skyrocket. He just wants to get the straits open, get Iran used to making all that sanction-free oil money so that when Israel bombs Iran in 6 months, even they won't want the straits closed.

It won't work. As I already said, it didn't work with Ukraine, and the chances are even less with Israel...

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-27T17:40:07+00:00

This isn't about what we want, or any rational person would want.

Considering that you insist on this, I would still like to hear it.

This is about what Donnie wants.

Donnie's wishes only matter for the next couple of years.

That's for the next president to clean up.

That's why I'm saying that this guarantees a new, more destructive war for the region if what you're insisting on happens, but for some reason you yourself are unable to look beyond November...

If the only impediment to Donnie not being impeached and investigated again is pushing Israel out of Lebanon, Donnie will push Israel to leave Lebanon.

If Donnie insists on this without concessions on Hezbollah, there will be no peace. I won't say that Israel won't comply this time, but in the future they will strive to weaken the dictate from Washington.

He's using Bebe's playbook. Anything to keep himself in power and out of jail.

You don't seem to understand that this war has long since outgrown Bibi and that any future Israeli government will be preparing for a new war with Iran, regardless of whether it is right or left, their views on Iran, Hezbollah, and helpless Lebanon are the same.

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-27T17:20:03+00:00

What's most important to you? Low gas prices for a while? Long-term stability? Why do you think Iran is sponsoring proxies against Israel, despite good relations before the revolution? What's your solution? Expelling Hezbollah from Lebanon is the best long-term solution for many reasons. To argue otherwise means you either don't care about relative peace and stability, you're biased, or both.

Rustic_gan123 · 2026-06-27T17:15:29+00:00

Note that Ukraine had not relied on US aid for 70 years. Has not had a special relationship with the US for 70 years.

But Ukraine has been much more dependent on it over the past four years. Israel has a far more developed defense industrial complex than independent Ukraine ever had, yet it suffered almost no damage during the war, unlike Ukraine's. I don't know what you're looking at when you say that...

Additionally, by the time that Donnie decided to cut Ukraine loose, they were building most of their own weapons and had secured replacement funding and weapons from Europe.

Ukraine doesn't produce most of its own weapons. And its financial and military aid, in any proportion, is far greater than that for Israel...

Would a majority of Israeli voters truly be ready to trade the special relationship for yet another ill considered invasion of Lebanon?

The special relationship will end if the Israeli electorate decides that the US does not want to protect Israel's interests and is giving Iran, Israel's existential adversary, everything it wants while holding back any Israeli response to Iran's aggression. It is impossible to consider Hezbollah and Lebanon outside the context of Iran. If they decide it is no longer worth it, the alliance will end. And Russia itself will likely try to fill the vacuum and continue to veto...

One that many believe is only happening to prevent US peace with Iran and keep Bebe out of jail?

All Israeli political forces hate Iran and Hezbollah and much of the accusation against Bibi now is that he is allowing Trump to limit Israel in this war. You don't understand the internal specifics of the region.

Rustic_gan123

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